donsutherland1

Here's where things currently stand. I expect the drought coverage to increase on Thursday's update:

It's possible that the local climate is moving into a cyclical drier period, even as the overall climate has grown wetter. If so, one might see an increase in underperformance cases. Canada's dryness is more widespread than what is expected, in general, for summer. The climate models don't provide interannual variability, though. Some climate projections from Canada's most recent national assessment in 2019. According to more recent research, summers are expected to see warmer and somewhat wetter conditions in western Canada and warmer drier conditions in both central and eastern Canada according to more recent information. The paper also notes that the climate models have shown a wet bias, so far. Finally, with regard to drought risk, it notes: The highest number of consecutive dry days are clustered in the northern regions of Canada (Fig. S7). Aside from the north, high elevation areas along the Rockies, north-western regions and the Canadian prairies have a higher number of CDD than the rest of the country. Sushama et al. (2010) reported similar results with the highest number of dry days concentrated in northern Canada followed by the Canadian Prairies. Given that Canadian Prairies is already a drought-prone area, future increase in dry spells over the region is concerning as shown by several other studies (Singh et al., 2020; Bonsal and Regier 2006).

That's the only paper I could find related to ACE and the NAO or AO.

Recent guidance has been trimming rainfall prospects for the New York City area during the first week of September. The 9/1 12z NBM now shows just 0.24" for the first week of September with maximum 1-day rainfall of 0.21". These numbers may yet change, but statistically odds favor less than 0.50" following the kind of dry end to August that occurred. Sample size is limited to just 10 cases, so sample size issues might somewhat affect the outcomes. Below is the data: The final CFSv2 forecast from August 31 favored a drier to much drier than normal September in the Northeast.

Since ACE is often brought up with regard to looking ahead to the winter. Here's what the literature has to say. In general, Atlantic hurricane activity has some relationship to the winter NAO. The connection is indirect and expressed through the NAO. High ACE seasons are linked to winters with a tendency for positive NAO. Low ACE seasons are linked to a tendency for a negative NAO. For purposes of assessing ACE, ACE is measured from the start of hurricane season to early September. These relationships are strongest during ENSO neutral winters. Many other factors contribute to the overall winter outcome.

Phoenix concluded its fourth hottest summer on record. All four have occurred since 2020 and all but 2021 since 2020 have ranked among the 10 hottest summers. Climate change is producing hotter summers.

New York City's August and Summer 2025 Summary: Summer 2025 in New York City was marked by stark contrasts, swinging between episodes of intense heat and sharp cool spells. June opened with a string of unusually cool days, before flipping mid-month to extreme heat. July was steadier but still ran warm overall, punctuated by surges into the upper 90s and several multi-day heatwaves. August shifted dramatically, dominated by persistent cool anomalies. Nearly two-thirds of the month ran below normal though a warm spell around mid-month tempered the chill. Overall, August 2025 was the coolest August since 2000. Although Summer 2025 was 0.3° above the 1991-2020 baseline (55% of days above normal) and 1.1° above the 1981-2010 baseline that preceded it, the volatility between unseasonable chill and unseasonable heat was its defining character.

August 2025 is concluding with a mean temperature of 73.7° (2.4° below the 1991-2020 baseline and 1.5° below the 1981-2010 baseline). That is the coolest August since 2000. Numerous locations in the Northeast will finish with among the 10 driest Augusts on records. Data for select sites: Allentown: 1.60" (Tied 9th driest) Boston: 0.83" (tied 4th driest) Islip: 0.53" (4th driest) Manchester: 0.64" (3rd driest) Mount Pocono: 1.42" (8th driest) New Brunswick: 1.33" (8th driest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport (8th driest) Portland: 0.53" (5th driest) Sterling: 0.85" (4th driest) Trenton: 0.82" (4th driest) Washington, DC: 0.20" (1st driest) ***New August Record*** Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through midweek. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s outside New York City and low 60s in New York City. A system could bring some rain on Thursday or Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was -4.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.023 today.

August 2025 will finish with a monthly mean temperature under 73.0° at Baltimore. Here's the full distribution:

Washington, DC is concluding its driest August on record. August 2025 will finish with just 0.20" (5.1 mm) of rain. That will easily surpass the old record of 0.55" (14.0 mm), which was set in 1962. Precipitation records go back to 1871. Daily rainfall August 1962 vs. August 2025 is below.

Following this morning's cool temperatures, much of the region saw their most August days with lows in the 50s in more than a decade: White Plains: Most since 1994 New Haven: Most since 2002 Bridgeport, New York City-Central Park, New York City-JFK Airport, New York City-LaGuardia Airport: Most since 2007 Islip: Most since 2014 Newark: Most since 2024

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.7 3.2

It did. It was an unusually dramatic change.

It is now all but certain that New York City will see no rainfall for the August 22-31 period. Such an outcome favors a drier than normal September. When this was first noted last Sunday, the CFSv2 showed wetter than normal conditions for September. The CFSv2 now shows a drier than normal September:

The coolest air mass so far this season moved into the region last night. The temperature fell into the 50s in New York City and 40s in some outlying areas. Low temperatures included: Atlantic City: 51° Binghamton: 44° Bridgeport: 55° Danbury: 47° Farmingdale: 55° Islip: 56° Montgomery: 45° New Haven: 58° New York City-Central Park: 57° New York City-JFK Airport: 57° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 59° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 57° Poughkeepsie: 46° Trenton: 51° White Plains: 53° Tonight will be a similar night. Afterward, temperatures will finish the weekend with highs in the middle and upper 70s under abundant sunshine. Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through the middle of next week. A system could bring some rain on Thursday or Friday. The big weather story next week will be the development of a massive heatdome oer western Canada. Temperatures in parts of British Columbia could challenge the Canadian national September record of 101° (38.3°C) from Windsor, ON that has stood since September 6, 1881. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +8.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.382 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (2.4° below normal). That would make August 2005 the coolest August since 2000. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Great breakdown by ENSO.

At some point, rising minimum temperatures matter. Here's the data for NYC: At present, I don't believe cities such as Caribou, Boston, Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto are in transition to structurally lower seasonal snowfall. That's probably one or more decades down the road, with the longest delay of any transition for Caribou, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto unless precipitation patterns change significantly e.g., winters become much drier (not shown on the climate modeling). In the meantime, back to the focus of the thread, I suspect that we'll see a weak La Niña that fades fairly quickly (weak-to-moderate RONI), PDO-, QBO-. Statistically, 1882, 1933, and 1971 are good PDO matches. The general idea is that the PDO would be negative for the winter but not as severely negative as at present. Statistically, 2014 might be the best QBO analog.

The persisent La Niña state is an important factor. Statistically, the odds of sufficiently cold winters have declined quite a bit. Even with last winter, the warmth was sufficiently great the the historic probability of a 50" season was very low. By the 2040s (maybe earlier if warming is greater than expected) it's possible that 50" winters will be all but gone with 40" winters becoming as rare as 50" winters. I suspect part of the explosive rise in snowfall during the early 2000s through 2015-16 had as much to do with the benefits of increased moisture temporarily exceeding the impact of warming winters. However, my guess is that NYC has now passed the point where the impact of additional warming now exceeds the benefits of increased moisture. That pattern was present in Washington, DC, which has experienced a structural decline in seasonal snowfall. Given New York City's higher latitude (closer proximity to cold air sources), a sharper initial rise makes sense. But this is how things might play out, if the City is in the early stages of a structural decline in seasonal snowfall under slow winter warming (where 40° winters remain relatively uncommon until around 2040). Red dots are the 30-season averages for 2025-26 through 2039-40. Stronger winter warming could bring the 30-season average near or below 20" by the mid-2030s. Internal variability will exist, so there will still be snowy winters. There will also be more frequent duds with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. The back-to-back < 10" winters of 2022-23 and 2023-24 were perhaps a "warning shot" from a future warmer winter climate.

At this lead time, August looked warmer than normal and the number of lows in the 50s that we've seen was almost inconceivable. There's no guarantee that the temperature will fall into the 40s next month, but even a short but sharp push of cold air that wouldn't necessarily show up in the weeklies, can't be ruled out during the second half of the month. Weekly forecasts lose skill beyond two weeks. Daily forecasts are unreliable beyond even 7-10 days. It would be interesting to examine how the daily numbers for September fare vs. climatology.

The coolest air mass so far this season will move into the region tonight. As a result, this weekend will see low temperatures fall into the 50s in New York City with some 40s in the colder suburbs. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 70s. Generally cool and dry conditions will persist into next week. A system could bring at least some rain during or after the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +19.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.815 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (2.5° below normal). That would make August 2005 the coolest August since 2000. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

In terms of 50" or more seasonal snowfall at New York City, one would typically need a winter colder than last winter was in order to have a reasonable shot. I looked at NYC (Central Park) 50" or above winters and winters from a larger set of sites from Washington, DC to Bridgeport. Only a single winter had a mean temperature at or above last winter's figure (Winter 2009-10 in Washington, DC). Below is the distribution of winters with 50" or more season,al snowfall and mean winter temperatures, along with the coldest and warmest such winters.

While I suspect that a transition toward structurally lower snowfall is underway from a warming climate, there is a lot of internal variability involved with seasonal snowfall. By the mid-2030s, if the structural decline is underway, Central Park would likely see its 30-season moving average reach or fall below 20" per year. In the meantime, here are some records for seasonal snowfall droughts: Most consecutive seasons with < 10": 2, 2022-23 through 2023-24 Most consecutive seasons with < 20": 6, 1949-50 through 1954-55 Most consecutive seasons with < 30": 15, 1978-79 through 1992-93 Note: There were some big storms during the 15-season snow drought, i.e., the 1979 President's Day snowstorm, the 1983 Megalopolis Blizzard, and the 1993 superstorm. Finally, although they are not common, there have been some very cold winters with low snowfall. Winter 1900-01 had a mean temperature of 31.9° with seasonal snowfall of just 9.1". Winter 1871-72 had a mean temperature of 29.4° with seasonal snowfall of 14.4". Overall, there have been five winters with a winter mean temperature < 32° with less than 20" of snow. Below is a scatter diagram of all winters. Cold/Dry winters are highlighted in red. Winters 2021-22 through 2024-25 are highlighted in brown.

For purposes of analysis, I compared the Winter 2009-10 through 2014-15 period to the Winter 2021-22 through 2024-25 period on a standardized basis. In terms of average deviation, the snowier set was 0.95 standard deviations above the historic winter 1869-70 through 2024-25 baseline. The latter set was an average of 1.20 standard deviations below the baseline. Winter 2011-12 was the culprit that reduced the average deviation from normal for the snowy winters. Excluding that winter, the average deviation would have been 1.41 standard deviations from the historic baseline. Note: These are Central Park figures.

As September increasingly becomes an extension of summer, New York City has been experiencing a long-term decline in cases where September's coldest temperatures have fallen into the 40s. During 1961-1990, 83.3% of Septembers saw one or more lows in the 40s. September averaged 2.1 such days. During the current 1991-2020 baseline, just 33.3% of Septembers have seen lows in the 40s and the annual September average has plunged to 0.8 days per year. The last time the temperature fell below 50° in September was September 24, 2022 when the mercury dipped to 49°. A strong argument can be made that September 2025 could buck that trend and experience one or more lows in the 40s. Based on the 8/29 12z NBM, August 20-31 will finish with five days with low temperatures falling below 60° at New York City's Central Park. The forecast lows for August 30 and 31 are 57° and 59° respectively. That would be the most such days since there were five days in 1987. The last time there were more was in 1946 when there were six. The record of eight days was set during August 20-31, 1940. Since record-keeping began in 1869, there were 16 cases when August 20-31 had five or more lows in the 50s and 81.3% of those cases saw one or more lows in the 40s during September. The figure for all other years was 65.7% of cases. Both cases with five or more days since 1980 (1986 and 1987) saw the lowest September temperatures fall into the 40s. The most recent year when August 20–31 had five or more lows in the 50s, but no September lows in the 40s, was 1934 when the monthly minimum temperature was 51°. In a city where concrete holds the heat and the climate grows steadily warmer, the return of a truly crisp September morning has become an increasingly uncommon and fleeting gift. Yet all signs suggest that September 2025 may break from recent tradition and deliver a breath from a vanishing earlier New York climate.

Wildfires in Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus this summer scorched more than a million hectares, displaced tens of thousands, and claimed at least 20 lives. Researchers with the World Weather Attribution group determined that climate change made the blazes 13 times more likely and up to 22 percent more intense than they would have been in pre-industrial conditions. Prolonged heat, parched soils, and shifting winds created a tinderbox environment, pushing fire behavior well beyond historical norms. Specifically, the attribution study found: To determine the role of climate change in this observed trend we combine the observation-based estimates with climate models. For both indices the models on average show a stronger increase in likelihood and intensity than observed. This leads to an overall increase in VPD7x of a factor of about 13 and an increase in intensity of about 18% attributable to human-induced climate change. For DSR the overarching increase in likelihood due to climate change is a factor 10 and an increase in intensity of about 22%.