donsutherland1

Yes, it's now beginning to show up prominently.

A historic Gulf Coast snowstorm is underway. Already, Houston has seen its first measurable snowfall since February 15, 2021 with 0.2" yesterday. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973. The only storm to bring measurable snowfall to Houston, New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, Pensacola, and Tallahassee, as is likely with the ongoing storm, was the legendary February 13-15, 1895 snowstorm. Some snowfall amounts of 1" or above have already been measured. The 1/21 0z HREF: Parts of the region are even under an extremely rare blizzard warning: A contingency table for measurable snow events at select Gulf Coast cities:

This morning, Newark had a low temperature of 7°. That was its first single-digit low temperature since February 4, 2023 when the mercury dipped to 5°.

A potentially historic Gulf Coast snowstorm is getting underway. Light snow is now falling in New Orleans and a blizzard warning is in effect for parts of Louisiana. Below is a measurable snowfall contingency table for select cities.

Yes. 1899 was a rare event. Nothing like that is likely.

Philadelphia didn’t have any significant snowfalls.

Latest HREF:

IMO, the region's best chance for flurries or light snow from the potentially historic Gulf Coast snowstorm will be southeastern NJ and easternmost Long Island. Perhaps the best case for New York City would be flurries or a dusting of snow, but that seems to be a low probability scenario right now. The storm in question has the potential to bring measurable snow to Gulfport, Houston, Mobile, New Orleans, Pensacola, and Tallahassee. Only the legendary February 13-15, 1895 snowstorm did that. That storm produced no measurable snow in New York City. If one widens the sample by selecting pairs of cities likely to receive measurable snowfall in the Gulf Coast/Southeast since 1950 and the New York City outcome, one finds: Savannah/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/6 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC Mobile/Pensacola received measurable snowfall: 1/5 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC (0.8") Mobile/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/4 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC New Orleans/Mobile received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC New Orleans/Savannah received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC That's since 1950. The Blizzard of 1899 brought snow to the Gulf Coast and heavy snow to New York City. However, that blizzard was blocked from going out to sea by a strong ridge to its east that had rapidly strengthened coupled with an extraordinarily deep trough coming eastward. This time around, the trough is much less impressive and the offshore ridge is centered much farther to the east, essentially assuring that the storm does not have to turn northward up the coast. February 12, 1899: February 13, 1899: February 14, 1899: EPS: January 22 12z EPS:January 23 12z:

How the Pattern Verified: What I thought was plausible: - Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days - 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days - 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days - 4" or more snowfall: 1 day Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2 Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1 Outcome at Central Park: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 1.6"; Total: 3.0") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: None - 4" or more: None Outcome at JFK Airport: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.5"; January 11: 0.4"; January 19: 2.2"; Total: 3.1") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: 1 day - 4" or more: None Outcome at LaGuardia Airport: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 3.6"; Total: 5.0") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: 1 day - 4" or more: None Synoptic details can't be reliably forecast more than 5-7 days out. Those details are crucial and they made the difference in the outcome. Overall, the pattern produced in the larger Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, just not in the New York City area (no moderate or significant snowfalls). Boston picked up 5.0" during January 19-20, 2025. Baltimore saw 6.6" on January 6, 2025 and Washington, DC received 7.2" on January 6, 2025. Richmond picked up 3.5" during January 5-6, 2025.

The January 19, 2025 snowstorm underperformed in the I-95 Corridor. However, snowfall amounts were still much higher than those suggested by the 1/17 18z RGEM for which "victory" had prematurely been declared. RGEM Amounts vs. Actual Amounts: Bridgeport: 0.7" (Actual: 2.3") Islip: 0.2" (Actual: 2.3") New York City: 0.5" (Actual: Central Park: 1.6"; JFK Airport: 2.2"; LaGuardia Airport: 3.6") Newark: 0.6" (Actual: 2.4") Philadelphia: 0.5" (Actual: 2.0")

The storm that underperformed in much of the region has now departed and an unseasonably cold air mass is in place. Overall, the forecast was too aggressive. Final snowfall estimates and verification: Allentown: 4"-8" (Actual: 5.7") Baltimore: 2"-4" (Actual: 1.0") Boston: 4"-8" (Actual: 5.0") Islip: 2"-4" (Actual: 2.3") New York City: 3"-6" (Actual: 1.6") Newark: 3"-6" (Actual: 2.4") Philadelphia: 3"-6" (Actual: 2.0") Washington, DC: 1"-3" (Actual: 0.3") From tomorrow through Thursday, New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. However, the air mass is not quite as cold as had previously been modeled. Temperatures could still fall into the single digits for lows in New York City and Philadelphia. The last single-digit lows were as follows: Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°) Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°) New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°) Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°) Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°) Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°) Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was: New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°) Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°) There is a chance that New York City could see two consecutive highs in the teens for the first time since January 6-7, 2018 when the highs were 13° and 18° respectively. A storm will track well south and east of the region from tomorrow into Thursday. Extreme southeast New Jersey and the Twin Forks of Long Island could see some flurries or perhaps some light snow. That storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm. Tallahassee could see its first snowfall since January 3, 2018 when 0.1" fell. New Orleans could see its first measurable snowfall since December 4, 2009. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973. The AO went negative on Saturday. With the AO forecast to become predominantly positive after January 24th, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. With the AO likely to spend time at or above +2.000 afterward into at least early February, odds of a 6" or above snowfall in New York City will be very low. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January. Moderation is likely during the opening of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +18.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.545 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.4° (4.5° below normal).

Photos from the snowstorm taken at Nichols Preserve (Greenwich, CT) where about 4" of powdery snow fell.

Yes. I agree with you.

Yes. My forecast was too high.

The cutoff date for the number was through Sunday. Some of the snow will also be recorded with next week's update. Either way, the EPS missed the timing and likelihood of the snow from a week out.

The final outcome: It should be noted that Boston received a storm total 5.0" snowfall.

NOUS41 KOKX 200627 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-201827- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 127 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... New Fairfield 5.2 in 1015 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Danbury 4.3 in 0900 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Ridgefield 3.8 in 0915 PM 01/19 Cocorahs Weston 3.8 in 1030 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Easton 3.3 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public 3 NE Southport 3.0 in 0918 PM 01/19 Public Bridgeport Airport 2.3 in 1140 PM 01/19 Official NWS Obs Greenwich 2.3 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public Norwalk 2.3 in 0900 PM 01/19 Public Fairfield 2.0 in 0813 PM 01/19 Public Stamford 2.0 in 1058 PM 01/19 Public Newtown 1.5 in 0700 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter ...Middlesex County... Durham 2.0 in 1000 PM 01/19 Amateur Radio Chester 1.5 in 1000 PM 01/19 Amateur Radio ...New Haven County... North Haven 4.0 in 0100 AM 01/20 Trained Spotter Wallingford 3.0 in 1000 PM 01/19 Amateur Radio Milford 2.5 in 1000 PM 01/19 Amateur Radio Hamden 2.0 in 1000 PM 01/19 Amateur Radio Meriden 2.0 in 1006 PM 01/19 Amateur Radio Branford 1.2 in 1155 PM 01/19 Public ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Franklin Lakes 5.9 in 1000 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Waldwick 5.6 in 1049 PM 01/19 Public Westwood 5.2 in 0922 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Fair Lawn 5.0 in 1100 PM 01/19 Cocorahs River Vale 5.0 in 0945 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Bergenfield 4.8 in 1003 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Ramsey 4.5 in 0600 PM 01/19 Public East Rutherford 3.3 in 1020 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter River Edge 3.2 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public ...Essex County... Caldwell 5.0 in 0955 PM 01/19 Public West Orange 4.5 in 0101 AM 01/20 Public Livingston 4.4 in 1034 PM 01/19 Public Nutley 4.0 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public ...Hudson County... West New York 3.1 in 1115 PM 01/19 Public Harrison 3.0 in 0900 PM 01/19 CO-OP Observer Hoboken 3.0 in 1000 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Kearny 3.0 in 1013 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Jersey City 2.5 in 0840 PM 01/19 Public ...Passaic County... Ringwood 6.3 in 0840 PM 01/19 Public Pompton Lakes 5.6 in 1000 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter 3 NE Wanaque 5.0 in 0646 PM 01/19 Cocorahs Totowa 5.0 in 1019 PM 01/19 Public Passaic 4.8 in 1005 PM 01/19 Public 1 ESE Ringwood 4.7 in 0633 PM 01/19 Public ...Union County... Berkeley Heights 4.5 in 1040 PM 01/19 Public Mountainside 4.5 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public Elizabeth 3.7 in 0900 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Cranford 3.5 in 1027 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Plainfield 3.5 in 1000 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Newark Airport 2.4 in 1200 AM 01/20 Official NWS Obs ...New York... ...Kings County... Bedford-Stuyvesant 3.0 in 0900 PM 01/19 Public 1 NNE Sheepshead Bay 3.0 in 1030 PM 01/19 Public Midwood 2.7 in 1222 AM 01/20 Broadcast Media Sheepshead Bay 2.5 in 1100 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter ...Nassau County... 2 ENE Roosevelt 4.1 in 1018 PM 01/19 Public Syosset 4.0 in 1000 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter East Williston 3.9 in 1015 PM 01/19 Public 1 ESE East Meadow 3.8 in 1117 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Sea Cliff 3.6 in 1042 PM 01/19 Public Massapequa 3.2 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public Farmingdale 3.0 in 1030 PM 01/19 Public Plainview 3.0 in 1028 PM 01/19 Public Manhasset Hills 2.6 in 1227 AM 01/20 Cocorahs 1 E East Meadow 2.5 in 1038 PM 01/19 NWS Employee Levittown 2.5 in 0930 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter East Meadow 2.1 in 0950 PM 01/19 NWS Employee 1 NE Roosevelt 2.0 in 1030 PM 01/19 Broadcast Media 2 SSE Plainedge 2.0 in 0814 PM 01/19 Public East Rockaway 1.8 in 0935 PM 01/19 Public Elmont 1.0 in 0712 PM 01/19 Public ...New York (Manhattan) County... 1 SSE Midtown Manhattan 1.8 in 0950 PM 01/19 Public Central Park 1.6 in 1200 AM 01/20 Official NWS Obs ...Orange County... Highland Mills 8.1 in 1100 PM 01/19 Public Chester 7.7 in 0834 PM 01/19 Public Middletown 7.0 in 0920 PM 01/19 Fire Dept/Rescue Monroe 7.0 in 0925 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter New Windsor 7.0 in 1054 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Salisbury Mills 7.0 in 0900 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Cornwall on Hudson 6.8 in 1000 PM 01/19 Cocorahs Pine Bush 6.7 in 1103 PM 01/19 Public 2 S Montgomery Airport 5.5 in 0815 PM 01/19 Public 5 E Port Jervis 5.0 in 0700 PM 01/19 Public Washingtonville 4.8 in 0749 PM 01/19 Public ...Putnam County... 3 WNW Fahnestock State Park 6.5 in 0930 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Putnam Valley 5.6 in 1050 PM 01/19 Newspaper ...Queens County... NYC/La Guardia 3.6 in 1200 AM 01/20 Official NWS Obs Howard Beach 3.5 in 1100 PM 01/19 Public 1 SE Fresh Meadows 2.7 in 1135 PM 01/19 Public 2 WSW Bellerose 2.3 in 0900 PM 01/19 Public NYC/JFK 2.2 in 1200 AM 01/20 Official NWS Obs Little Neck 2.0 in 1030 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter ...Richmond County... 1 E New Dorp 3.5 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public Westerleigh 2.6 in 0950 PM 01/19 Public ...Rockland County... Congers 6.5 in 1000 PM 01/19 Fire Dept/Rescue Monsey 5.2 in 1055 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter New City 5.0 in 1000 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Nyack 1.8 in 0700 PM 01/19 Public Chestnut Ridge 1.2 in 0450 PM 01/19 Public ...Suffolk County... Commack 3.5 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public Babylon 3.3 in 0951 PM 01/19 Public Port Jefferson 3.3 in 1020 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Centereach 3.2 in 1040 PM 01/19 NWS Employee Stony Brook 3.0 in 1030 PM 01/19 NWS Employee Mount Sinai 2.8 in 1000 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Islip 2.3 in 1145 PM 01/19 Official NWS Obs Deer Park 1.9 in 0825 PM 01/19 Amateur Radio Upton 1.9 in 0930 PM 01/19 Official NWS Obs Huntington Station 1.8 in 1000 PM 01/19 NWS Employee Bellport 1.5 in 0945 PM 01/19 Trained Spotter Hampton Bays 1.5 in 1109 PM 01/19 Public North Patchogue 1.5 in 1235 AM 01/20 Public 1 SE Ridge 1.5 in 1200 AM 01/20 Public East Islip 1.1 in 0820 PM 01/19 Amateur Radio ...Westchester County... Croton-on-Hudson 5.5 in 0914 PM 01/19 Public Ossining 5.5 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public Valhalla 4.5 in 1100 PM 01/19 Public Yonkers 3.1 in 1205 AM 01/20 Trained Spotter Rye 2.0 in 1000 PM 01/19 Public Rye Brook 1.5 in 0723 PM 01/19 Amateur Radio &&

Three photos from this evening:

Mamaroneck, NY:

I'm happy to learn she's making a recovery. Let's hope all goes well and that she can go home, soon.

I'm sorry to hear of your sister-in-law's stroke. I wish her a full recovery.

It is now snowing moderately in Larchmont in southern Westchester County.

694 NOUS41 KOKX 172124 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-180924- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 424 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Darien 3.2 in 1105 AM 02/17 Public Danbury 3.1 in 1000 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Stamford 3.1 in 1200 PM 02/17 Cocorahs 3 WNW Monroe 2.5 in 0930 AM 02/17 Cocorahs 2 NNE Norwalk 2.5 in 0950 AM 02/17 Public Fairfield 2.5 in 1100 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter 2 SE Greenwich 2.3 in 0940 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Bridgeport 2.3 in 0100 PM 02/17 Official NWS Obs Weston 2.2 in 0815 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Fairfield 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/17 Public 4 NNE Bethel 2.0 in 0841 AM 02/17 Cocorahs New Fairfield 2.0 in 1000 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter ...Middlesex County... 1 NNW Killingworth 2.0 in 0840 AM 02/17 Public Westbrook 1.8 in 1140 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Higganum 1.0 in 0830 AM 02/17 Public ...New Haven County... 4 ENE Naugatuck 2.8 in 0925 AM 02/17 Public Guilford 2.4 in 0100 PM 02/17 CO-OP Observer Hamden 2.3 in 1115 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter 2 SSE Derby 2.0 in 0857 AM 02/17 Cocorahs 3 WSW North Madison 2.0 in 0959 AM 02/17 Public 1 N North Haven 2.0 in 1000 AM 02/17 Public Naugatuck 1.5 in 0700 AM 02/17 Public ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Westwood 3.0 in 1020 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter East Rutherford 2.6 in 0930 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Fair Lawn 2.5 in 1000 AM 02/17 Public Franklin Lakes 2.2 in 1100 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Bergenfield 2.1 in 0905 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter River Vale 2.0 in 0840 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Waldwick 2.0 in 1020 AM 02/17 Public ...Essex County... Millburn 4.0 in 0745 AM 02/17 Public West Orange 3.0 in 0925 AM 02/17 Public West Caldwell 2.0 in 0900 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter ...Hudson County... Bayonne 5.5 in 0900 AM 02/17 Public 1 WSW Hoboken 4.3 in 1000 AM 02/17 Cocorahs Harrison 4.0 in 0900 AM 02/17 CO-OP Observer Hoboken 3.1 in 0730 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Kearny 3.0 in 0830 AM 02/17 Cocorahs ...Passaic County... Hawthorne 3.0 in 0800 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Wayne 2.5 in 0930 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter ...Union County... 1 ENE Clark 7.7 in 0838 AM 02/17 Cocorahs Plainfield 7.3 in 0810 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Elizabeth 5.5 in 0810 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Kenilworth 4.4 in 0228 PM 02/17 Broadcast Media Newark Airport 4.2 in 0100 PM 02/17 Official NWS Obs ...New York... ...Bronx County... 1 ENE East Tremont 2.1 in 0900 AM 02/17 Public 1 NE Riverdale 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/17 Cocorahs ...Kings County... 1 SW Sheepshead Bay 8.0 in 0800 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter 1 ESE Bay Ridge 7.6 in 0536 AM 02/17 Public Midwood 7.3 in 0900 AM 02/17 Broadcast Media 1 NNE Midwood 7.0 in 0645 AM 02/17 Broadcast Media Williamsburg 6.5 in 0830 AM 02/17 Public 1 N Crown Heights 6.5 in 0910 AM 02/17 Public 2 NNE Bay Ridge 6.5 in 1020 AM 02/17 Public 2 N Bay Ridge 6.5 in 1025 AM 02/17 Public 1 N Bay Ridge 5.8 in 0600 AM 02/17 Public 2 WNW Crown Heights 5.2 in 1000 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Bay Ridge 4.8 in 0618 AM 02/17 Public 2 W Crown Heights 4.7 in 0920 AM 02/17 Public ...Nassau County... 1 NNW Oceanside 6.6 in 0825 AM 02/17 Public Hewlett 6.0 in 0900 AM 02/17 Public Bellmore 6.0 in 1130 AM 02/17 Public Massapequa 5.8 in 1010 AM 02/17 Cocorahs Valley Stream 5.5 in 0725 AM 02/17 Public Rockville Centre 5.0 in 0538 AM 02/17 Broadcast Media Island Park 5.0 in 0900 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Farmingdale 5.0 in 0930 AM 02/17 Public Malverne 4.9 in 0800 AM 02/17 Cocorahs 2 SSE Plainedge 4.1 in 1018 AM 02/17 Public 1 WNW East Massapequa 4.0 in 0820 AM 02/17 Public Plainview 3.4 in 0835 AM 02/17 Public Manhasset Hills 3.1 in 0730 AM 02/17 Cocorahs East Williston 3.1 in 0900 AM 02/17 Public Glen Cove 3.0 in 0805 AM 02/17 Public East Meadow 3.0 in 1000 AM 02/17 NWS Employee Bethpage 3.0 in 1130 AM 02/17 Public Syosset 2.7 in 1000 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter ...New York (Manhattan) County... 1 SE Greenwich Village 3.2 in 0920 AM 02/17 NWS Employee Central Park 2.0 in 0100 PM 02/17 Official NWS Obs ...Orange County... Chester 2.6 in 0820 AM 02/17 Public 1 WNW Monroe 2.5 in 0815 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter 1 E Highland Mills 2.1 in 0917 AM 02/17 Public New Windsor 2.1 in 0940 AM 02/17 Public Pine Bush 2.0 in 0930 AM 02/17 Public Middletown 2.0 in 1100 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter ...Putnam County... Carmel 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/17 CO-OP Observer ...Queens County... Breezy Point 8.9 in 0749 AM 02/17 Public 4 ENE Breezy Point 8.0 in 1015 AM 02/17 Broadcast Media NYC/JFK 6.2 in 0100 PM 02/17 Official NWS Obs Howard Beach 6.0 in 0800 AM 02/17 Broadcast Media 2 S Elmhurst 3.3 in 0810 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter NYC/La Guardia 3.3 in 0100 PM 02/17 Official NWS Obs 1 WNW Elmhurst 3.0 in 0735 AM 02/17 Public ...Richmond County... 1 WSW Tottenville 10.0 in 1000 AM 02/17 Public 1 E Annadale 9.5 in 0945 AM 02/17 Public 1 SW Annadale 9.1 in 0845 AM 02/17 Public 1 E New Dorp 8.6 in 0550 AM 02/17 Public 1 N Tottenville 7.8 in 0450 AM 02/17 Cocorahs Westerleigh 6.8 in 1035 AM 02/17 Public 1 WNW Tompkinsville 3.5 in 0538 AM 02/17 Public ...Rockland County... Piermont 1.5 in 0530 AM 02/17 Public ...Suffolk County... North Patchogue 5.6 in 1019 AM 02/17 Public Shirley 5.3 in 1030 AM 02/17 Public Babylon 4.9 in 1145 AM 02/17 Broadcast Media North Babylon 4.7 in 0950 AM 02/17 Public Mastic Beach 4.5 in 0830 AM 02/17 Public West Islip 4.5 in 1050 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Lindenhurst 4.3 in 0700 AM 02/17 Public Oakdale 4.0 in 1000 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Copiague 4.0 in 1019 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Sayville 3.9 in 0735 AM 02/17 NWS Employee Blue Point 3.8 in 1045 AM 02/17 Public Islip Terrace 3.7 in 0930 AM 02/17 Public 1 WNW Babylon 3.6 in 0655 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Mount Sinai 3.4 in 0900 AM 02/17 Public Islip Airport 3.4 in 0100 PM 02/17 Official NWS Obs Poquott 3.2 in 0730 AM 02/17 NWS Employee Commack 3.1 in 0800 AM 02/17 Public East Hampton 3.1 in 1030 AM 02/17 Public Holbrook 3.0 in 0810 AM 02/17 Public 1 S Centerport 3.0 in 0820 AM 02/17 Public 1 WSW Smithtown 3.0 in 0840 AM 02/17 Public 1 SSW Nesconset 3.0 in 0855 AM 02/17 Cocorahs Centereach 3.0 in 0900 AM 02/17 NWS Employee Melville 3.0 in 0915 AM 02/17 Public Setauket-East Seta 3.0 in 1030 AM 02/17 Public Upton 3.0 in 1100 AM 02/17 Official NWS Obs Riverhead 2.8 in 0950 AM 02/17 Cocorahs Bridgehampton 2.6 in 0700 AM 02/17 CO-OP Observer Centerport 2.2 in 0800 AM 02/17 CO-OP Observer 1 NE South Huntington 2.0 in 0550 AM 02/17 NWS Employee ...Westchester County... 1 SSW White Plains 3.4 in 1040 AM 02/17 Public 2 NNE Mamaroneck 3.2 in 1124 AM 02/17 Public Rye 3.1 in 1100 AM 02/17 Public 2 ESE Scarsdale 3.0 in 1030 AM 02/17 Trained Spotter Armonk 2.7 in 0900 AM 02/17 Cocorahs Somers 2.6 in 1155 AM 02/17 Public Croton-on-Hudson 2.1 in 0955 AM 02/17 Public &&

Moderate to heavy snow has been falling in eastern Pennsylvania late this afternoon. Some early accumulations include: Nazareth: 3.4" New Hanover TWP 3.4" Spring TWP: 3.8" The biggest snowstorm in nearly three years at Central Park will begin to blanket the New York City area this evening. The snow will fall moderately to heavily at times during the first half of tonight. New York City will likely see its heaviest snow during the 6:30 pm - 9:30 pm period where visibility could be reduced to 1/4-mile or less. The storm will likely bring a general 3"-6" snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with a stripe of 4"-8" amounts to the north and west of this region and also in parts of southern New England. Final snowfall estimates: Allentown: 4"-8" Baltimore: 2"-4" Boston: 4"-8" Islip: 2"-4" New York City: 3"-6" Newark: 3"-6" Philadelphia: 3"-6" Washington, DC: 1"-3" In the wake of the storm, January will see its first genuine Arctic air mass. From tomorrow through Thursday, it is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the single digits for lows in New York City, Philadelphia, and perhaps even Washington, DC. The last single-digit lows were as follows: Baltimore: December 24, 2022 (6°) Boston: February 4, 2023 (-10°) New York City: February 4, 2023 (3°) Newark: February 4, 2023 (5°) Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (7°) Washington, DC: December 24, 2022 (9°) Highs could reach no higher than the teens in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia during the peak of the cold. The last time both cities had high temperatures in the teens was: New York City: December 24, 2022 (15°) Philadelphia: December 24, 2022 (18°) There is a chance that New York City could see two consecutive highs in the teens for the first time since January 6-7, 2018 when the highs were 13° and 18° respectively. New York City and Philadelphia could also be grazed by a storm tracking well south and east of the region from Tuesday into Thursday. That storm has the potential to bring measurable snowfall to Atlanta, Charleston, Norfolk, and Wilmington, NC. The last time that happened was during what became known as the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 25-27, 2010. Parts of the Southeast could see a significant snow, sleet, and ice event from this storm. Tallahassee could see its first snowfall since January 3, 2018 when 0.1" fell. New Orleans could see its first measurable snowfall since December 4, 2009. The last storm that brought measurable snowfall to both New Orleans and Tallahassee occurred on February 9-10, 1973. The AO went negative yesterday. With the AO forecast to become predominantly positive after January 24th, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited after January 24th. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm would likely persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January. Moderation is possible during the last week of January or the opening of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +6.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.570 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.5° (4.4° below normal).

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