donsutherland1

It will turn cooler for tomorrow and Thursday. Milder air will then return for the remainder of March. Saturday could see the warmest readings so far this spring in and around the New York City area. Highs could rise well into the 60s with 70s likely in adjancent New Jersey. The closing two days of March could see the temperature top out in the lower 60s in New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +10.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.129 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal).

I'm not surprised by the outcome. One of the "scientists" is actually a musician. The other three have lacked credibility in the field for more than a decade. Their understanding of climate change and climate dynamics is also limited. As they attempted to shift responsibility to Grok AI for their deeply flawed paper, I asked ChatGPT to grade the paper as if the paper were submitted as college work (some of the incorrect concepts are actually taught in high school classes). Here's ChatGPT's response regarding if the paper were submitted as a college paper: If I were grading this paper as a college professor—particularly in a climate science, environmental studies, or scientific reasoning course—I would assign a grade of D or F, depending on the rubric. Here's why: And, I also asked it to consider how it would grade the paper if it were a high school paper. The results were also dismal: If this paper were submitted in a high school class, the grading would depend heavily on the course type and grading rubric—but assuming it was for an upper-level science, environmental studies, or research writing class, I would likely assign a grade of C– or D.

Rain fell across the region and milder air pushed back into the region. New York City picked up 0.48" of rain. The variable pattern of alternating short cool and mild periods will likely continue through at least next weekend. The guidance is suggesting that one or two days could see readings reach the 60s in the New York City area just before the end of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +5.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.553 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal).

Final numbers:

This morning, the temperature fell to 31°. If that is the last freeze, it will occur somewhat earlier than normal. The normal last freeze occurs on March 29th. Last year's last freeze occurred on March 24th. The last April freeze occurred on April 3, 2021. Low temperatures included: Albany: 22° Allentown: 27° Atlantic City: 31° Binghamton: 19° Boston: 29° Bridgeport: 31° Danbury: 29° Hartford: 26° Islip: 31° New Haven: 32° New York City-Central Park: 31° New York City-JFK Airport: 32° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 32° Newark: 32° Philadelphia: 34° Poughkeepsie: 27° Providence: 30° Scranton: 24° White Plains: 28° A period of rain is likely tomorrow as milder air pushes into the region. There is a chance that some of the distant northern and western suburbs could see some sleet or wet snow during the onset of the precipitation. A general 0.25"-0.75" is likely. The variable pattern of alternating short cool and mild periods will likely continue through at least next weekend. The guidance is suggesting that one or two days could see readings reach the 60s in the New York City area just before the end of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +5.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.037 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).

The week ahead: With the snow season likely completed in much of the region, this will be the last such post until next winter.

A brief push of cold air will occur tonight into tomorrow before temperatures quickly moderate starting on Monday. Tomorrow morning could start with temperatures near freezing in New York City and the upper 20s in some of the nearby suburbs. It will be blustery with highs topping out in the upper 40s. A period of rain is likely on Monday as milder air pushes into the region. There is a chance that some of the distant northern and western suburbs could see some sleet or wet snow during the onset of the precipitation. The variable pattern of alternative short cool and mild periods will likely continue through the upcoming week. The guidance is suggesting that one or two days could see readings reach the 60s just before the end of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +2.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.260 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).

AI still has a lot of learning to do.

The weekend will start mild with the temperature rising well into the 50s tomorrow. Another brief shot of cold air is likely on Sunday before temperatures quickly moderate starting on Monday. Sunday will be blustery with highs topping out in the upper 40s A more sustained period of cold could develop starting late next week. The chill could then linger until the closing days of March. The guidance is suggesting that one or two days could see readings reach the 60s just before the end of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +2.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.770 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).

Atlantic City saw 6.0".

Yes. The April 3-4, 1915 snowstorm brought 19.4" to Philadelphia and 10.2" to NYC. Baltimore received 6.5" and Washington, DC saw 3.5". Interestingly enough, there was also an area of heavy snow farther south with Richmond and Raleigh both picking up 10.0".

The mild weather will continue through tomorrow. It could turn briefly cooler on tomorrow. The arrival of the cooler air will be preceded by showers or a period of rain tonight into tomorrow morning. Another brief shot of cold air is likely on Sunday. A more sustained period of cold could develop starting late next week. The chill could then linger for much of the remainder of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around March 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. The SOI was +9.72 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.124 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (2.8° above normal).

No. Newark received 8.7". Once one moved north and east of NYC, amounts fell off as the precipitation was lighter.

As noted yesterday, the GFS currently has a notorious reputation for struggling in the spring, especially when it comes to handling marginally cold air masses during storms. It seems that the model’s algorithms overamplify the cold, feeding back on itself until the simulated atmosphere becomes drastically colder than reality. This often leads to wildly exaggerated snowfall predictions, forecasting massive, historic snowstorms. Today's cycle is no different. 3/18/2025 12z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (10:1 ratio), Valid 4/2/2025 0z: 3/18/2025 12z Cycle: 24-hour snowfall (Kuchera), Valid 4/2/2025 0z: This time, let's take a closer look at the historical record. Common snowfall records for Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington are available beginning in March 1892. The GFS forecast has the following select amounts: Baltimore: 10:1: 19.0"; Kuchera: 13.0" Philadelphia: 10:1: 11.9"; Kuchera: 9.9" Washington, DC: 10:1: 16.5"; Kuchera: 10.8" Since common snowfall records began, there has been no storm after March 15th that brought 6" or more snow to all three cities. The latest-season storm to bring 6" or more to all three cities was the March 12-14, 1993 superstorm. Prior to regular recordkeeping, a storm during March 16-17, 1843 brought 6" or more snow to all three cities. The latest-season storm to bring 10" or more to all three cities was the February 17-19, 1979 "President's Day Blizzard." Finally, the biggest snowstorm on record for Washington, DC after March 15th occurred on March 27-28, 1891 when 12.0" of snow fell. Large late-season events tend to be more localized in area e.g., Baltimore-Washington or Baltimore-Philadelphia, but not all three cities pick up substantial amounts of snow. There remains virtually no chance that the GFS's latest idea will verify. At this time of year, its maps for big snowstorms should be dismissed unless there is strong and consistent support from the other guidance.

The map has issues. First, the snowstorm occurred on March 20-21, 2018, not March 28-29. Second, snowfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 3.0"; Farmingdale: 13.1"; Islip: 18.4"; New Brunswick: 8.9"; New York City-Central Park: 8.4"; New York City-JFK Airport: 8.7"; New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 9.6"; Newark: 8.3"; and, White Plains: 7.0"