donsutherland1

The RGEM is running.

And the GFS was first to bring it back. For a time, it was the only model showing a big storm, but its solutions were dismissed on grounds that they were the result of initialization errors.

Almost all of the guidance, including the NAM have the 875 mb layer down to the surface well below freezing. That would produce sleet. Some freezing drizzle can't be ruled out at some point, but the steady precipitation following the changeover from snow should be sleet.

For trivia, the biggest daily snowfall difference between JFK and LGA is 8.5". On February 17, 2003, JFK saw 21.6" while LGA saw 13.1".

Winter 2025-26 has seen Phoenix's warmest December 1-January 22 period on record.

The latest image came out very small. Here's the bigger one:

Yes. Here’s the NWS forecast:

That was a rapidly strengthening coastal low. https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20220129 https://bluehill.org/historic-blizzard-of-2022-impacted-new-england-with-strong-winds-and-record-snowfall/

Here it is:

Even at the low-end NWS forecast, one sees a decent snowfall.

The Arctic Oscillation has averaged -0.433 this winter. 65% of days have seen a negative AO and 44% have seen the AO at -1.000 or below. Winter 2024-2025 had an AO average of -0.498 through January 23. Arctic air will pour into the region tonight. That will set the stage for the region's biggest snowstorm so far this winter and in a number of years. The temperature will likely stay below 20° in New York City and much of the region tomorrow. The last time that happened in New York City was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. Snow will arrive early on Sunday. A significant snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even as a transition to sleet is likely. At present, it appears that New York City and its nearby suburbs are in line for 6"-12" of snow. Areas to the north and west of the City where ratios will be higher and mixing is less likely will likely see 12"-18" of snow. Lesser amounts of 4"-8" appear likely along the central Jersey Shore and across eastern Long Island. Initial estimates: Albany: 12"-18" Allentown: 12"-18" Atlantic City: 3"-6" Baltimore: 6"-12" Binghamton: 12"-18" Boston: 12"-18" Bridgeport: 8"-14" Concord: 12"-18" Hartford: 12"-18" Islip: 4"-8" New York City: 6"-10" Newark: 6"-12" Philadelphia: 6"-12" Poughkeepsie: 12"-18" Portland: 14"-22" Providence: 12"-18" Richmond: 3"-6" Scranton: 12"-18" Washington, DC: 6"-12" The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. Frigid air will return to the region as the storm departs. Highs will be mainly in the lower 20s through Friday. Tuesday could again see highs topping out only in the teens in New York City. Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on or more days during this period. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was -19.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.243 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.6° (3.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. And because Microsoft no longer supports Windows 95, each frame needs to be scanned independently for viruses. And then it has to be double authenticated.

Through January 22nd, Phoenix is experiencing its warmest winter on record. However, numerous locations in the Great Lakes and East, along with Alaska, are seeing their coldest winter in at least several years. For Alaska, it's been the coldest winter to date in decades. Select mean temperatures for December 1-January 22: Albany: 26.5° (coldest since 2017-18) Anchorage: 12.2° (coldest since 1981-82) Boston: 31.8° (coldest since 2017-18) Burlington: 24.0° (coldest since 2018-19) Caribou: 14.9° (coldest since 2018-19) Concord: 24.1° (coldest since 2017-18) Detroit: 26.9° (coldest since 2017-18) Fairbanks: -20.8° (coldest since 1968-69) Juneau: 22.2° (coldest since 1981-82) Milwaukee: 24.6° (coldest since 2017-18) Minneapolis: 19.0° (coldest since 2021-22) New York City: 34.5° (coldest since 2017-18) Portland, ME: 25.2° (coldest since 2017-18) Washington, DC: 37.7° (coldest since 2017-18)

That was an old forecast, I believe from Wednesday. Since yesterday, they've been at 4"-8".

Their Accuweather forecast has 4"-8" for NYC.