donsutherland1

Parts of the region saw a dusting of snow overnight. The remainder of the day was mild with the temperature reaching the lower and middle 40s. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the upper 30s. A storm tracking to the south could bring some snowfall to the region tomorrow night into Monday. The steadiest precipitation should pass to the south of New York City. Nevertheless, a 1"-2" snowfall appears likely in and around New York City. Lesser amounts are likely north and west of the City. Parts of central New Jersey and Long Island could see somewhat higher amounts. There remains a risk of lower amounts from New York City northward, as the City will be affected by the northern edge of a fairly weak system. Following the light snowfall, the remainder of Monday will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It will then turn milder for the remainder of the week into the beginning of next weekend. Highs will mainly be in the middle 40s. One or two days with highs in the upper 40s to near 50° are possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +20.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.006 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Notice that the social media influencer posted a single water vapor map. That makes it difficult for readers to verify the accuracy of the claims being made. There is no reference point for comparison. Therefore, no structural validation is possible. But that's life on social media today where anyone can slap "wx" into their handle and then forecast. In fact, based on the 6z, 12z, and 18z cycles, the opposite has been true through the course of much of today. That's why the models have pulled back somewhat on the northern extent of the QPF and track of the relatively weak system. It will likely remain weak, as the environment is not conducive to phasing, as has been a recurrent theme over several days of 500 mb vorticity maps. The NAM, Icon, and GFS have all pulled back, with the NAM and Icon continuing their evolution through the 18z cycle. The 18z GFS has yet to initialize. With the 12z GFS having been above the consensus and the ongoing evolution of the synoptic environment, I wouldn't be surprised if its forecast is trimmed at 18z, though that's not guaranteed. Overall, taking into consideration the guidance, inter-cycle shifts in the guidance, and EPS individual members, a 1"-2" snowfall still seems reasonable for the NYC area and immediate suburbs. A strip of somewhat higher amounts could cut across central NJ and parts of Long Island. Overnight into tomorrow, I suspect that the guidance will begin to consolidate at a consensus.

I respect your precision. I used "explains" in a statistically descriptive sense, not to talk about causation. I could have used more technical language talking about measuring the predictable variation (via linear relationship in this case) between the independent and dependent variable(s). Keeping in mind that the Board has an audience, some of whom have yet to enter college, such terminology would create more confusion than clarity. Unfortunately, there are trade-offs involved in simplifying discussions.

Here you go: Winter State College Williamsport 1892-93 48.3 N.A. 1893-94 66.4 N.A. 1894-95 54.5 15.3 1895-96 33.7 31.5 1896-97 31.6 26.0 1897-98 40.2 30.8 1898-99 53.5 41.8 1899-00 27.0 15.9 1900-01 39.7 18.9 1901-02 59.9 60.6 1902-03 34.1 40.0 1903-04 39.1 49.7 1904-05 48.0 39.7 1905-06 30.7 30.4 1906-07 57.1 42.6 1907-08 67.8 54.2 1908-09 42.6 39.6 1909-10 66.4 35.6 1910-11 52.0 31.2 1911-12 45.5 35.9 1912-13 20.4 15.2 1913-14 77.4 55.4 1914-15 56.0 45.8 1915-16 48.7 65.0 1916-17 39.4 37.6 1917-18 60.5 62.6 1918-19 18.1 14.3 1919-20 54.2 41.9 1920-21 30.2 27.5 1921-22 41.9 32.8 1922-23 65.9 64.4 1923-24 42.2 27.5 1924-25 41.0 35.0 1925-26 48.3 43.0 1926-27 43.2 40.0 1927-28 64.8 38.1 1928-29 21.6 15.2 1929-30 24.0 18.0 1930-31 30.3 26.0 1931-32 28.4 24.7 1932-33 22.1 19.3 1933-34 31.1 37.0 1934-35 42.7 38.5 1935-36 72.4 48.9 1936-37 31.4 22.7 1937-38 20.2 20.6 1938-39 42.4 36.7 1939-40 49.5 44.3 1940-41 45.9 58.1 1941-42 75.0 39.8 1942-43 42.3 41.1 1943-44 36.4 23.6 1944-45 52.2 46.3 1945-46 29.5 34.3 1946-47 44.7 30.6 1947-48 42.5 40.5 1948-49 28.0 22.3 1949-50 34.5 36.8 1950-51 51.4 43.2 1951-52 41.9 50.2 1952-53 31.7 21.0 1953-54 34.0 28.8 1954-55 26.1 34.0 1955-56 32.7 45.4 1956-57 58.2 50.7 1957-58 57.6 49.1 1958-59 44.7 39.1 1959-60 47.8 51.9 1960-61 91.9 80.2 1961-62 52.2 49.6 1962-63 61.2 55.8 1963-64 78.2 76.2 1964-65 46.2 24.9 1965-66 43.2 39.1 1966-67 59.5 64.7 1967-68 30.9 29.0 1968-69 38.9 18.3 1969-70 89.9 82.6 1970-71 68.4 61.4 1971-72 54.2 59.5 1972-73 31.4 30.6 1973-74 40.9 40.6 1974-75 50.1 38.8 1975-76 42.9 28.9 1976-77 40.8 42.1 1977-78 98.2 83.6 1978-79 39.9 37.3 1979-80 17.9 20.5 1980-81 38.8 41.6 1981-82 69.1 54.5 1982-83 22.6 17.6 1983-84 50.2 40.7 1984-85 31.6 25.0 1985-86 42.3 31.2 1986-87 52.3 53.5 1987-88 39.0 36.8 1988-89 23.7 7.0 1989-90 40.8 31.3 1990-91 34.4 27.9 1991-92 26.9 20.0 1992-93 92.5 55.8 1993-94 109.3 81.2 1994-95 23.5 12.8 1995-96 99.0 85.9 1996-97 41.4 15.2 1997-98 48.2 31.1 1998-99 35.2 37.1 1999-00 19.8 23.1 2000-01 32.1 37.8 2001-02 21.7 19.4 2002-03 83.6 63.9 2003-04 71.4 55.5 2004-05 36.2 38.3 2005-06 26.9 25.0 2006-07 37.6 29.4 2007-08 43.2 31.1 2008-09 26.3 24.2 2009-10 49.1 34.9 2010-11 38.4 45.6 2011-12 19.0 12.3 2012-13 43.6 32.7 2013-14 51.8 45.9 2014-15 52.0 44.4 2015-16 17.9 7.7 2016-17 37.8 41.1 2017-18 34.1 26.8 2018-19 40.1 32.4 2019-20 13.2 13.4 2020-21 45.7 54.3 2021-22 31.9 29.3 2022-23 24.3 19.9 2023-24 22.0 18.1 2024-25 20.5 15.3

Warming winters coupled with unfavorable patterns/storm tracks are driving State College's seasonal snowfall lower. The coefficient of determination for the winter temperature-seasonal snowfall link is 0.498, meaning that the warming explains almost half of the decline in seasonal snowfall.

The 12z HREF: Deducting one category would still produce a 1"-2" snowfall for the New York City area and its nearby suburbs and a coating to an inch across most of Westchester and Rockland Counties. That is largely in line with the overall model guidance. I suspect that there will be an area with 2"-4" snowfalls in central New Jersey. The 12z NAM appears to be a high outlier overall.

Yesterday, the ECMWF-AIFS starting showing snowier solutions for New York City. Overnight, the guidance has shifted in that direction with the system taking a more northerly track than shown on the earlier guidance. Some of the overnight guidance such as the 2/14 6z GFS and ICON appear to have been overdone with the QPF for what is not likely to be a strong system. Those amounts will probably come down with subsequent guidance. Currently, it looks like New York City and its nearby suburbs are in line for a 1"-2" snowfall with higher amounts likely across central New Jersey. Areas north and west of New York City, especially from White Plains north and westward will see amounts fall off and perhaps rapidly. Most of the snow will likely fall prior to 9 am on Monday. Nevertheless, clouds could be slow to break holding temperatures to the upper 30s for most of the day. It remains possible that the mercury could reach 40° late in the day based on the 2/14 12z NBM. New York City could even see its first 40° or above low temperature since January 14th. Since recordkeeping began in 1869, New York City has seen measurable snowfall on 11.5% of years on February 16th. The highest daily figure was 9.9" in 1996. The most recent figure was 5.0" in 2010. The NBM presently shows a large spread between its 25th and 75th and 10th and 90th percentile figures. These large spreads convey a still high degree of uncertainty. A full-fledged February thaw still appears likely to crest during the middle and latter part of next week. There is fairly large uncertainty as to how warm the peak temperatures will get. 50s are possible in and around New York City.

Tomorrow and Sunday will see temperatures reach the upper 30s and lower 40s. A flurry or burst of light snow is possible in some areas tomorrow. A few areas could see a dusting. Some precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. Areas with the highest probability of seeing precipitation will be south of New York City. A minor accumulation of snow is possible. It will likely become even milder with highs in the lower to middle 40s for a time next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +7.93 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.519 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 94% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

A very good discussion, IMO. It describes what appears to be a reasonable worst-case scenario, although it should be noted that 4 EPS members now show 6" or more. It touches on the lack of phasing, which is a consistent theme given the wide separation of energy and front-running northern piece.

Today at the New York City Subforum: In reality, although the ECMWF-AIFS has brought back a moderate snowfall for Monday, the lack of ensemble support (at 0z), forecast temperatures, and its own unusual inconsistency over the past two days argues that its solution should be taken with a dose of skepticism. One should wait for additional support. For now, a light precipitation event remains possible. A moderate snowfall seems unlikely in the New York City area.

This is actually the highest number of days since Winter 2014-2015 (55 days). Winter 2020-2021 had 32 days.

The big weather story for the New York City area this weekend through the middle of next week will be the combination of a February thaw and relatively quiet weather. A weak system will likely pass to the south Sunday night and Monday perhaps bringing some light precipitation for a time, mainly to the south of New York City. Temperatures during any precipitation will likely be mainly near or above freezing. The thaw could crest on Tuesday with the high reaching the upper 40s and possibly 50° in Central Park. Beyond the five-day period, some showers or periods of rain could be possible on Wednesday or Thursday with the temperature remaining above freezing for the duration of the event. The five-day figures from the NBM: For context, the forecast averages are somewhat more range-bound and somewhat milder than the values for the overall 1991-2020 climate reference period. Exceptional warmth remains unlikely. Despite the upcoming thaw, February remains extremely likely to be colder than normal overall.

January 23-February 15, 1980 was exceptionally dry with just a trace of precipitation. There was some rain afterward, but it took until the first half of March to turn wetter.

As had been consistently the case with most of the high-quality guidance, the 500 mb story has remained largely unchanged. The spacing between the energy in the East remains too great to allow for much interaction, much less a phased solution. The top-performing ECMWF-AIFS has returned to its prior little or no snow solutions for President's Day. Finally, the overnight EPS deflated whatever dreams of a snowy solution might previously have existed.

Somewhat cooler weather has returned to the region. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle to upper 30s tomorrow. The weekend will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It could become even milder with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 40s next week. Some precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +7.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.731 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.