donsutherland1

The result is a combination of climate change, the urban heat island effect, and the pattern.

I hope she feels better soon.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.5 -1.9 -2.0 -0.2 2.2 3.8 2.0 2.7 2.0

Phoenix experienced its warmest December on record for the second consecutive year. Last year, the December mean surpassed a record that held since 1980. That record was beaten this year with Phoenix experiencing, by far, its warmest average low temperatures on record for December.

IMO, the second half of January will have a lot more potential than the first half. Indeed, there could even be a transitional mild period that develops on or around January 7th.

@Roger Smith New York City's snow season rankings through December 30th:

Some flurries or snow showers are possible tonight into tomorrow in parts of the region. The ground could be coated or dusted in places. The eastern end of Long Island and eastern Connecticut could see 1"-2" of snow due to an influx of some Atlantic moisture. The first week of January will likely have a mean temperature below 30° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2018. The only years since 2000 with a sub-30° mean temperature for the opening week of January were 2001, 2010, 2014 and 2018. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +2.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.306 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.9° (5.2° below normal). That will make December 2025 the coldest December since 2010 when the monthly mean temperature was 32.8°. It would also make 2025 the third coldest December since 2000. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Here’s some info: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

As noted in the general ENSO 2025-2026 thread, the forecast development WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern typically does not favor large East Coast snowstorms during January 1-10. Instead, lighter snows are the rule.

I will check it when I get back home tomorrow evening.

The wind will diminish overnight, but a cold regime will remain in place. Below normal temperatures will continue into at least the middle of the first week of January. Some flurries or snow showers are possible late Thursday into Friday in parts of the region. The first week of January will likely have a mean temperature below 30° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2018. The only years since 2000 with a sub-30° mean temperature for the opening week of January were 2001, 2010, 2014 and 2018.December 2025 will finish with a maximum monthly temperature of 58° in New York City. The last time December had a monthly maximum temperature below 60° was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. This will be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.The SOI was +6.49 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.580 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.9° (5.2° below normal). That will make December 2025 the coldest December since 2010 when the monthly mean temperature was 32.8°. It would also make 2025 the third coldest December since 2000.Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Winter beauty:

Some snow flurries have been occurring in Goshen.

I agree. The forecast development WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern typically does not favor large East Coast snowstorms during January 1-10. Instead, lighter snows are the rule. If one is searching for a genuine cold and snowy pattern, a WPO-/AO-/PNA+ combination is far better.

The ongoing PNA- will eventually end, even if the 0z GEFS sustains it through its forecast period. Once that happens, recent historical experience (since 1980) suggests that the PNA will likely undergo a regime change to mainly positive values. The same kind of regime change took place for all 10 25-day or longer streaks that began in November or December.