donsutherland1

I hope it will be better than I expect.

In conjunction with its annual Holiday train show, the New York Botanical Garden is running a feature called "the Nightmare Before Christmas Light Trail." Some of these characters could well have been taken from this thread. The Southeast Ridge Waiting for Winter

Some virga from late this afternoon:

A colder air mass is now overspreading the region. The wind will diminish tonight. Below normal temperatures will prevail through at least Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Highs will be mainly in the middle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s. A milder pattern will likely develop during the latter part of the week. Some rain or rain showers are possible. Once in place, the milder pattern could continue for a week or longer. If so, that could tip the odds toward a warmer than normal monthly mean temperature. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,387th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +8.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.552 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

So far, LaGuardia has had a 47 mph gust and Newark has had a 45 mph gust.

Yes. A PNA- is one of my baseline assumptions for December. The combination of EPO-/WPO-/AO- with a PNA- isn't all that bad based on the composite values and the majority of dates in the clusters for such a setup. There should be some intrusions of cold air into the East with perhaps some snowfall prospects. I could see December finishing with 2"-4" monthly snowfall in the NYC area (much more in the Great Lakes Region, especially Detroit to Toronto). For now, I don't think a blockbuster snowy month is in order. I don't think we'll see anything close to December 2010-type cold. I do believe that the EPO-/WPO- should thwart the possibility of a top 10 warmest December. Given the timeframe involved, changes are still possible.

From the Bronx:

While I won't go overboard about December's prospects e.g., no 1983-type cold, an EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- month wouldn't be the worst of outcomes. There should be opportunities for snowfall and at least some cold should periodically push into the East. I highly doubt we'll see a "torch" December.

Thunder in Larchmont, NY.

Tomorrow will turn briefly milder with highs generally reaching the lower and middle 50s before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region. In the wake of the cold front's passage, a period of below normal temperatures will prevail through at least Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Highs will be mainly in themiddle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s. A milder pattern could develop the latter part of next week. Some rain is possible. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,386th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +6.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.018 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Griteater is very knowledgeable. It will be fasinating to see how things evolve.

Here's some data:

I think we’ll get opportunities. I suspect winter will get off to a good start, as often happens with La Niña.

True. Fixed:

Low-cost labor is only a part of China's advantage in renewables. It probably helped initiate things, but China's advantage now goes far beyond labor costs. The combination of its comparative advantage in access to rare earth minerals, experience/learning benefits from aggressively advancing its renewable energy technologies, and economies of scale from its scaling production have given it a significant and sustainable competitive advantage. It's difficult to envision any other country being able to imitate what China is able to do in producing renewable energy technologies anytime soon. Moreover, China is beginning to deploy AI in its renewable energy technology development, which could give it another boost in its renewable energy leadership. In contrast, the U.S. has largely ceded this field. Moreover, its doubling down on energy of the past and its suppression of scientific research through policy/funding changes could essentially deprive it of a capacity to become competitive in renewable energy technology.