donsutherland1
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About donsutherland1
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
donsutherland1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's on course to become a truly monstrous historic event. Its impacts will be far-reaching and probably very severe. -
Showers and thundershowers are possible early tonight. Some of the thunderstorms could bring flooding downpours and strong winds. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through the middle of next week. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The long-term outlook for the remainder of July has swung to near normal or even somewhat cooler than normal on the guidance. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -23.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.735 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.5° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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An observation one doesn't off see in the NYC area from LaGuardia Airport this morning:
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Two photos of the smoke that returned. It's nowhere near as thick or at the low level as it was on Thursday.
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Narrative artwork for this morning: AQI: 196 (parts of the NYC area are above 200).
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Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. Some of the thunderstorms could bring flooding downpours and strong winds. The greatest risk is tomorrow night and Sunday. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through the middle of next week. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -27.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.683 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.0° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Smoky sunrise.
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Four photos of the smoke today:
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Smoky early evening:
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The continuing GOES-19 outage, which may continue into or even through this evening, is likely affecting HRRR smoke forecasts, as real-time satellite data is not present. That adds a dose of uncertainty into smoke conditions this afternoon and this evening. Here are recent conditions based on the observed data: Assuming a light westerly flow continues through this evening, some denser smoke will probably move into the New York City area this evening or early tonight.
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It’s the last picture before things went down. It was prior to my photo. It is uncertain when service will be restored.
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Advancing smoke shield just after a cloudy sunrise.
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Despite wildfire smoke, temperatures topped out well in the 90s across the region. Highs included: Atlantic City: 99° Bridgeport: 92° Islip: 92° New York City-Central Park: 95° New York City-JFK Airport: 98° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 98° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 98° Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s tomorrow. Smoke could hold down the readings by several degrees across parts of the region. Friday will also be very warm before the temperatures ease for the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. The greatest risk is Saturday night and Sunday. Highs will generally reach the lower and perhaps middle 80s through the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -36.56 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.104 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (1.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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From a little earlier this afternoon:
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Bronx:
