donsutherland1

Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s. A few locations will likely reach or exceed 70°. Afterward, it will turn slightly cooler with readings in the upper 50s for Monday and Tuesday before temperatures again warm into the middle and upper 60s for the remainder of the work week. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was +12.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.057 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.3° (1.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

At Granite Falls, MN, county capital for Yellow Medicine County, 84% of daily record high temperatures were set or tied since 2000 and 43% were set or tied since 2020. In addition, 83% of monthly record highs were set or tied since 2000 and 50% of monthly record highs were set or tied since 2020. Climate records go back to January 1893. The concentration of record highs in recent decades is substantial and consistent with a warming climate, as documented in the NCEI data.

This morning's low at Mount Pocono was 27°. October 17 is the average date for first 20s. Last year's October 10 was earlier than usual. The only recent year that I recall JFK's reaching 32° in October was 2020 (October 31st). That day, the high-low split for MPO was 39°-22°. That was the coldest October high temperature since 2012 when the high was also 39°. However, since you mentioned a date prior to October 20, that might have been October 19, 2015. The low was 20° but the high reached 49°. Nothing like that is likely in the near-term. Forecast uncertainty increases toward the end of the forecast period on the NBM: That's the period that the NBM has recently shown the most warming from its forecast of 12 hours ago.

Tomorrow and Monday will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach 70° on Monday. Afterward, it will turn slightly cooler with readings in the upper 50s for Monday and Tuesday before temperatures again warm into the lower and middle 60s for the remainder of the work week. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was +6.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.543 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.1° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The end of October has been shifting warmer on the NBM over the past 12 runs.

Cirrus and cirrostratus clouds this morning.

Verification: Allentown: 32°; Actual: 30° Bridgeport: 38°; Actual: 39° Danbury: 31°; Actual: 30° Islip: 40°; Actual: 36° New York City-Central Park: 43°; Actual: 44° New York City-JFK Airport: 44°; Actual: 42° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45°; Actual: 48° Newark: 41°; Actual: 39° Poughkeepsie: 30°; Actual: 28° Westhampton: 34°; Actual: 28° White Plains: 37°; Actual: 39° Average Error: 2.4°

Many locations outside of New York City will be in the 30s tomorrow morning. New York City will likely be in the lower 40s. The NBM has been remarkably stable. 10/23/2026 23z NBM: Allentown: 32° Bridgeport: 38° Danbury: 31° Islip: 40° New York City-Central Park: 43° New York City-JFK Airport: 44° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45° Newark: 41° Poughkeepsie: 30° Westhampton: 34° White Plains: 37° The AIFS (12z) shows 39° for Central Park. That's probably a bit too cool. The spread (standard devation) for tomorrow's high temperature has increased.

Temperatures will continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Monday could be the warmest day with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Dry conditions are likely through at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -13.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.226 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The remainder of this week and weekend will see highs mainly in the lower 60s. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend into at least early next week. Temperatures will continue to top out in the upper 50s and lower 50s through the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -33.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.869 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

For what it's worth, it appears that the AIFS has been running warmer than the traditional ECMWF when it comes to daytime temperatures. Whether this is temporary with the new 0.1° ECMWF grid or something persistent remains to be seen. Here's an example from New York City from the 10/22 0z cycle (similar differences were also present in the 6z cycle): For comparison, the NBM high-low values for October 22 (today) were 65°-47°.

Today's highs: Bridgeport: 62° Islip: 61° New Haven: 61° New York City: 62° Newark: 65° White Plains: 64°

Depending on how well it does, I will attempt to pull other locations. Snowfall will be interesting, as 10:1 is too simple and Kuchera often leads to inflated amounts. Bufkit uses Cobb, so that's a possibility. Whether it can be integrated given what's available from the ECMWF remains to be seen. FYI, the 12z run showed a low of 41° at MPO for tomorrow (NBM is 37°).

The remainder of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. Friday will be briefly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 50s, but temperatures will likely return to the lower 60s for the weekend. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend into at least early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -42.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.585 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. It will be interesting to see how it fares in coming days.