donsutherland1

Fast retreating snow cover:

If Phoenix reaches 100°, it would be extraordinary. Since March daily records started in 1896, Phoenix has hit 100° just once in March (March 26, 1988: 100°) and 99° three times (most recently on March 25, 2025).

Yes. There's a strong indication of heat on the guidance.

I expect it will wind up warmer. I think the warming post 3/21 isn't adequately reflected, but we'll see.

A once great blanket of snow now lies in scattered, broken fragments. Across the landscape, winter’s grip is breaking. Large, weathered piles of snow, grayed by time and road dust, stand as the last monuments to the winter that was. Soon, these remnants will surrender to the strengthening sun and the season's inexorable rise in temperatures. One by one they will dissolve into water, soaking into the ground or running along the sides of streets. With their departure, the last visible traces of the season’s story will disappear from an increasingly colorful landscape that will emerge as the calendar presses deeper into spring. Following some early fog, tomorrow will provide an early taste of spring. Clouds will break and the temperature will surge into the lower and perhaps middle 60s across much of the region. The eastern half of Long Island and south shores of Long Island and Connecticut will remain markedly cooler. Interior sections of New Jersey could see the mercury approach or reach 70°. The first half of next week will likely see highs in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it could turn cooler. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +30.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.140 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.6° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

For a further illustration of how remarkable the warmth has been in recent years, seven months have now seen their highest average temperature set since 2020. So far, no records have been set in any of the spring months. However, there is a chance that could change this month. With its sizzling start and possible near-record/record heat next week, 2026 is very likely to finish among the 10 warmest years on record in March. A new record is possible should the predominant winter pattern persist through much of the month.

Shorter wave lengths change the importance of various teleconnections. Some have difficulty accepting that there are no universal patterns that apply at all times. Some on X/Twitter were insisting on the importance of a PNA+ ahead of the recent blizzard. Undoubtedly, they must be confounded that it occurred with a strongly negative PNA. But not those who understand the synoptic patterns. During the second half of February, a PNA- is more conducive to big Northeast snowstorms.

An early taste of spring is imminent. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. The temperature will likely surge into the lower 50s tomorrow and then lower 60s on Sunday. The first half of next week will likely see highs in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it could turn cooler. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +25.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.318 today.

Periods of rain will continue into tomorrow. A storm total 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely across much of the region. Highs will likely reach the lower 40s tomorrow and Friday. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +13.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.072 today.

Dry weather will be short-lived. Additional rain will arrive tomorrow and continue into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Highs will likely reach the lower 40s tomorrow and Friday. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +19.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.240 today.

Brunswick 23S (2005-2025), Newton 11 SW (2003-2025), Newton 8W (2003-2025) are warming about 0.9°/decade. That matches Georgia's statewide warming during 2003-2025/2005-2025. Watkinsville 5 SSE (2005-2025) is warming 0.6°/decade, which is somewhat slower than the statewide average.

Periods of rain are likely into early tomorrow. The temperature will reach the middle and upper 40s tomorrow. Additional rain is likely on Thursday into Friday. Highs will likely reach the lower 40s on both days. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +19.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.253 today.

Should the AO stay positive, it will probably be a one-week or so window of opportunity. If, however, blocking develops, then the probability of a multi-week cold period would increase. Hopefully, we can get a decent storm during the window of opportunity.

Yes, you can use it.