donsutherland1

It has been a snowy winter in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. Already, Islip, JFK Airport, and Providence have clinched top 10 seasonal snowfall figures.

The ECMWF weeklies suggest that spring begins for good during the week of March 9-16. The weeklies suggest the following teleconnection pattern during the second half of March: WPO-/ EPO+/ AO+/ PNA-. Using NYC as an example for the Northeast, the mean March 16-31, 1980-2025 temperature for such teleconnections is 46.6°. For all other cases, it is 45.3°. So, one isn't exactly looking at a cold pattern with those forecast teleconnections. Moreover, the ECMWF weeklies don't show a cold pattern. Fortunately, teleconnection forecasts are not skillful beyond two weeks. If one is looking for a genuinely colder pattern to develop, an AO- would offer perhaps the strongest possibility. Even leaving the other teleconnections as they are currently forecast (WPO-/EPO+/PNA-) but combining them with an AO- , the March 16-31, 1980-2025 mean temperature was 42.9°.

My position is as follows: ...any structural decline in seasonal snowfall from an overall warming of winters probably won't be evident until the mid-2030s due to stochastic variability. Moreover, there will continue to be some big snowstorms (even if the recent big snowfall drought skews perceptions) and snowy winters. Winters can still feature cold. December 2025 is an example, as it's on course to be the coldest December in 15 years in NYC. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62460-snow-potential-dec-26-27/?do=findComment&comment=7876310 Washington, DC with its warmer climate than NYC provides a classic example with Winter 2009-10. Norfolk, Richmond, and Washington, DC have all see a number of significant and major snowstorms since 2010 with climates that are warmer than New York City's will be even a decade or more in the future.

That's wonderful. I hope they never lose their sense of adventure, joy, and love of the snow/winter and life.

Wonderful photo.

I don’t know. It’s difficult to believe that widely-used products would essentially be discontinued rather than being updated with the new version of the datasets.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler with highs in the upper 30s to around 40°. It will turn briefly milder on Saturday to start the weekend. The temperature could approach or reach 50°. Colder air will return for Sunday through Tuesday. Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +6.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.160 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (4.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. February 2026 will likely be the coldest La Niña February since February 1934. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

FYI, NCEP's ongoing retreat from broad data access is poised to continue. On or around March 9th, the daily or monthly composite maps will no longer contain updated data. https://psl.noaa.gov/news/2026/r1datanotice.html Below is one of the products that won't be updated.

I don't disagree that there will be a cooldown following the burst of warmth after the first week in March. The cooldown doesn't necessarily mean a return to Arctic air masses or the threat of big snowstorms. A lot more evidence is needed before one builds a case for a 1956- or 2018-style close to winter. His calls almost always concern stratospheric warming events, favorable MJO phases, and/or blocking etc., to make a case that winter will continue to around Easter. The issue with making essentially the same call is that that when things verify, verification may simply have been a more matter of his making the same call year after year than insight into some unique factors. The 10 mb maps may be illustrating nothing more than a precursor to a final warming event. Even if the event materializes and propagates, the lag would bring one to late March or early April before its impacts would be felt. As X isn't really a searchable, I can't pull up his posts from spring 2025. But I found this in the banter thread related to his spring 2024 call:

As always. He always calls for a wild end to winter.

No. The record for Denver is 40.2° during Winter 1933-34.

Denver is on track for its second warmest winter on record. Even wilder, Phoenix is demolishing its winter record and Winter 2025-2026 will be warmer than spring 1917 and as warm as spring 1965. Such an outcome would be unthinkable in southern New England:

WxBell really needs to fix its algorithm: Almost certainly, Central Park will not be going into the single digits this coming March. Mid- to upper teens will likely be the limit. Central Park's all-time record low temperature for March is 3° from March 5, 1872. Its latest-season -3° or below temperature occurred on February 17, 1896 and the temperature has not fallen to -3° or below since February 15, 1943 (-8°).

1995-1996.

Tomorrow and Friday will see highs in the upper 30s to near 40° in New York City. A system passing to the south of the region could bring a little snow to the region late tomorrow or tomorrow night. It will turn briefly milder on Saturday to start the weekend. The temperature could approach or reach 50°. Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +5.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.296 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (4.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.