donsutherland1

And here are the most common high-low combinations for New York City:

Negativity bias is real. People often assume that their "crystal ball" is clearer at longer lead times when adverse outcomes (e.g., lack of snowfall) are involved. Psychologically, people tend to give greater weight to negative outcomes than positive ones. Those threats appear clearer or more certain, because they generate stronger cognitive or emotional reaction. In reality, the extended range forecasts showing a bleak outcome for snowfall are no more or less likely to verify than those that show a lot of snowfall at similar ranges. Guidance beyond 10 days has a sharp falloff in skill. Having said that, the frequency of days with significant (6" or above) snowfall declines in New York City, especially after mid-March. Moreover, just over one-in-four years (26.8%) saw no measurable snowfall during February 15-28 but only 3.1% of years (1878, 1925, 2002, 2012, 2020) saw no measurable snowfall from February 15 to the end of snow season. At the current lead time, it is premature to assume that Winter 2025-2026 has seen its last measurable snowfall.

With a 16-day mean temperature of 19.7°, New York City experienced its coldest 16-day period since January 10-25, 1982 and its first sub-20° 16-day period since January 11-26, 1982.

The coldest day of Winter 2025-2026 is now going into the books. Tomorrow will start very cold, but the afternoon will be less harsh as readings climb into the middle and upper 20s. The temperature will reach or exceed freezing on Tuesday. The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return. After mid-month, highs could begin to reach the lower 40s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +0.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.397 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.0° (4.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.8°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Near there. Hudson River Greenway near 158th Street.

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°.

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

Things change during the second half of February as wave lengths shorten. Since 1950, 75% of NYC's February 15 or later 10" or above snowstorms had a PNA-.

Some photos from this morning.

Bridgeport, Central Park, Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains have all registered daily low temperatures below 10° for the second consecutive day. The last time that occurred was January 30-31, 2019.

Yesterday’s high-low of 27-6 in NYC was a weathergami (only 27-6 combination in the climate record).

For the first time since February 4, 2023, Bridgeport, Central Park, Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains have all registered daily low temperatures below 10°. Through 8 pm, the average low for the seven cities is 7.4°. On February 4, 2023, it was 2.9°.

You’d generally need a N or NNW wind. NYC doesn’t radiate very well.

The temperature in Central Park has fallen to 8°. That is New York City's coldest temperature since February 4, 2023 when the mercury dipped all the way to 3°.