donsutherland1

GaWx, Thanks. It looks like I messed up my pre-1980 values on the spreadsheet. By any chance, do you have a link to the monthly Region 1+2 anomalies. I can't find it on the moved ENSO page.

While those weren’t La Niña winters, I expanded the very limited dataset to include all years with rapid warming of ENSO Region 3.4 from a cool December figure. The response in January and February was the same with or without those two cases.

Were the La Niña to collapse prematurely, that would herald the likelihood of warmth in parts of the East in both January and February. Perhaps the best proxy for rapid collapses are cases where the ENSO R3.4 anomaly was -0.50° or below during December and >-0.50° during January. There were only four cases since 1950 that met that criteria: Winters 1951-52, 1952-53, 1974-75, and 2001-02. I don't expect this winter to meet such criteria. If so, the coming winter would wind up quite a bit warmer than what I'm currently thinking and also what the latest ECMWF suggested.

As of 4 pm, the high temperature in New York City had reached 66°. That was a full 2 standard deviations above the NBM forecast from 11z, a remarkable bust. Newark was even warmer with a high of 70°. However, this warmth will be short-lived, as a cold front is now crossing the region. In doing so, it could trigger some widely scattered showers. Most areas will remain dry. The first half of tonight will be very windy. Winds will likely gust past 50 mph for several hours. Afterward, winds will slowly diminish. Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s tomorrow and middle and upper 50s on Friday. The weekend will be mild with Saturday being the warmest day. Highs on Saturday will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s. Newark could again approach or reach 70°. A strong cold front will then bring this season's coldest temperatures so far early next week. Lows would fall well into the 30s in New York City while highs struggle to reach the middle and upper 40s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +26.97 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.140 today.

Tomorrow will be a mild day with highs reaching the lower 60s. A weak cold front could touch off a few scattered showers. It will turn increasingly windy following the frontal passage. Winds will likely gust past 50 mph for several hours. Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s Thursday and Friday before milder conditions return for the weekend. Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. Lows would fall well into the 30s in New York City while highs struggle to reach the middle and upper 40s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +17.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.343 today.

Nothing is cast in stone right now. Here are overall December cases: For recent La Niña events (1980-2025), December snowfall of 6" or above is more conducive to a snowy winter. Frequency of 30" or more for January-April: December < 4": 16.7% December 4" or above: 25.0% December 6" or above: 28.6% December 8" or above: 40.0%

I think he was referring to Eric's analogs. I might be wrong, though.

Yes. Fast start, then typically a collapse of winter. That may be the baseline for this coming winter where things get off to a good start and then winter ends prematurely.

In other words, things seem to be moving toward a vintage fast start to winter as is often, though not always, the case during La Niña winters.

Yes, but sharp cold shots are still possible. Below normal months can also occur.

A few showers are possible tonight. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be mild days. Highs will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. A weak cold front could cross the region Wednesday, perhaps touching off a few scattered showers. It will turn increasingly windy following the frontal passage. Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s before milder conditions return for a time next weekend. Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +18.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.583 today.

The short and sharp shot of cold looks good. Probably mid (maybe low) 30s for lows in the City, well into the 20s outside (teens in the coldest spots).

Aside from the 11/2 12z run of the GFS, the GFS is not showing an early season snowstorm in the New York City area. Outlier events typically do not verify when they lack support. So far, there is very little support on either the EPS or GEFS for the kind of snowstorm one run of the GFS showed yesterday. In general, one should wait for support to develop and run-to-run continuity to develop before embracing outlier events. The probability of the kind of event for New York City and its immediate suburbs shown yesterday remains low. More likely is a cold rain event with highs in the 40s with perhaps some flakes mixed in, though the mixing remains uncertain at this time. A better chance of snow exists for parts of the Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks, and central/northern New England, which would include parts of Dutchess and Orange Counties.

Highs will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s through Wednesday. A weak cold front could cross the region after midweek, perhaps touching off a few scattered showers. Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s before milder conditions return for a time next weekend. Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +18.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.073 today.

Here are the statistics for Central Park (1869-70 through 2024-25):