donsutherland1

The last three winters have all ranked among the 10 warmest in the West: A disproportionate share of top 10 warm winters in the West and nationwide have occurred since 2000: The Great Lakes and Northeast were fortunate to have a cold and snowy (especially in the Northeast) winter. Such winters can still occur, and likely will occur for decades to come, but they have become notably less frequent on a nationwide basis.

This heat event will be among the most impressive heat events on record relative to climatology. It will rank up there with the March 2012, June 2021 PNW, September-October 2024 Southwest heat events in terms of peak temperatures relative to normal. The national March high temperature mark of 108° should fall. Numerous cities will surpass not just March, but also April monthly records.

Webcam for Marquette:

Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. A storm will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region Sunday night and Monday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +10.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.305 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

NBM 5.0:

That would break the four-month record that was set during November-February 2025-2026 (2.4°), which is currently the largest such margin for any four-month period. For reference:

Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. Following a soaking rain on Monday, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will build in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +26.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.365 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. I will do so.

Sky this morning over a still largely ice-covered Larchmont Reservoir:

With today's snowfall, Central Park tied the record for fewest days between an 80° or above temperature at Central Park and a trace or more of snow. The records are below: April 7, 1942: 82°; April 9, 1942: 2.1" March 20, 1945: 83°; March 22, 1945: Trace April 1, 1978: 81°; April 3, 1978: Trace March 10, 2026: 80°; March 12, 2026: Trace Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. Following a soaking rain on Monday, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +24.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.714 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.8° (2.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Snowing in the Bronx.

DCA picked up 0.1" today after an early morning high of 78°. Yesterday's high there was 86°.

There is now sleet in the Bronx.

While Phoenix awaits the development of what will likely become a super March heatwave, a look back at February's exceptional warmth reveals that February 2026 would currently rank as the 15th warmest March on record. February and March records go back to 1896.