donsutherland1

Probably around 2"-5".

3"-6". Probably the biggest snowstorm there since February 11-13, 2014.

HRRR notwithstanding with its strong divergence between the advancing primary low and the developing secondary low that holds Raleigh to around an inch of snow, I suspect that things will be better (3"-6" in Raleigh and surrounding areas in the Triangle). Reasonable low-case: 2.5"; reasonable high-case: 6.0". Most of the guidance suggests a healthy snow-growth environment with a deep, well-saturated dendritic growth zone (dgz) with−12°C to −17°C temperatures. The HRRR is a dry exception. Ratios should be 10:1 to 15:1 during the snowfall. Thus, unless the HRRR scores a coup, I think its nightmare won't come to pass in the Raleigh area, even if it gives residents a good fright ahead of the event.

Good luck. I'm pulling for all of you. Hopefully, the HRRR will be more generous with the Triangle in its 0z run. Its 18z solution seemed unrealistic, but we'll see.

It seems reasonably close to where the 12z ECMWF showed it developing.

No misery this season. If February can be cold and snowy, Winter 2025-2026 could become a really special winter.

January is winding up with the West again having been warmer to much warmer than normal and the East being colder to much colder than normal.

My guess is that it will increase the likelihood that the next 1-2 weeks see generally colder than normal temperatures.

The January 24-30 period has had a mean temperature of 16.9°. That is the coldest one week period since January 1-7, 2018 when the one-week average temperature was 16.4°. In addition, New York City saw its second single digit low of this winter. That's the most such days since Winter 2022-2023 when there were three such days. Today's high temperature was 18°. That is the second high temperature below 20° this winter. The last time that happened was Winter 2018-2019. The temperature will again fall into the single digits tomorrow morning. The high temperature will rise into the upper teens or lower 20s. Temperatures should begin to moderate on Sunday into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least the start of next week. A passing flurry is possible on Sunday. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England could see some light snow as parts of the region are brushed by a blizzard that will bring heavy snow and high winds to the Southeast. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +11.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.616 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

For Central Park, it's happened in 1920, 1936, 2014, and 2015.

Charlotte's Last Snowstorms of Select Thresholds: 1" or More: January 21, 2022 1.9" 2" or More: January 16, 2022 2.2" 4" or More: February 11-13, 2014 8.4" 6" or More: February 11-13, 2014 8.4" 8" or More: February 11-13, 2014 8.4" 10" or More: February 26-27, 2004 13.2" 12" or More: February 26-27, 2004 13.2"

Very interesting. I hope that they have since purchased some snow removal equipment.

For reference:

Some charts in advance of the upcoming snowstorm/blizzard: Should the storm bring 6" or more snow to both Wilmington, NC and Norfolk, it would become only the third storm on record to bring 6" or more to both locations.

Sunrise. 8°.