jgf

INVEST 90E - unlikely to amount to much.., but still.., kind of an early start... NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center 6 hours ago NHC has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook regarding a large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure that has formed over the eastern North Pacific Ocean several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are favorable for some gradual development during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves slowly northwestward. By late this weekend, conditions will become less conducive for development. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 2 p.m. PDT Friday, or earlier, if necessary - www.hurricanes.gov The eastern North Pacific hurricane season officially begins on May 15th, and on June 1st for the Atlantic basin.

I have seen Atlantic forecasts for the 2020 season.., but nothing for the Eastern Pacific. can anyone point me to a discussion or forecast for the 2020 Eastern Pacific tropical season? Thanks

well, i can understand that.., but given that density varies.., two equal values of dPa S^-1 might have completely different actual vertical velocities.. also.., the 850mb surface is itself defined by pressure.., so now we are talking about the rate of change of pressure, on a constant pressure surface... i guess it could be looking, in a lagrangian sense, at the rate of change of pressure for a particle moving through that 850mb surface.., but maybe rather than speculate i will hope that someone clears it up.

in the 850mb and vertical velocity chart.., the units of vertical velocity are dPa s^-1 i googled it, but couldn't find anything - i am very familiar with the Pascal (Pa) as a unit of pressure.., and i am assuming d is for deci ..,but how are pascals per second a unit of velocity?

I often wonder the same thing - were you looking at the unified surface analysis? I think that they put them any where that MSLP contours close - it may however be a contour level that's not plotted besides front's, i also sometimes see many L's plotted in regions with very weak gradients - a relatively flat but undulating surface could have many places where contours close it might also be be a because they see an area of convection on a satellite i think it varies from forecaster to forecaster - some probably put more than others.., although i understand this is becoming automated, so it could be the computer that's doing it sometimes.

if you look on the IBM website for GRAF, they talk a lot about "democratizing" access to good weather forecasts; "IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (IBM GRAF) helps democratize weather forecasts so people, businesses and governments—anywhere—can make better decisions." and here https://newsroom.ibm.com/graf-democratizing-the-worlds-weather-data yet it seems nearly impossible to actually see any of their forecasting products

are any new houses in upstate new york being built with electric heat today? have you looked into the amount of electricity that would be needed to heat all the houses in new england, and compared that with wind and other renewable electricity coming on line? I live near the water - the wind on the water right now.., dec 22, is about 2kts - it's 23degF outside. it's actually fairly common for low wind speeds to be associated with low temperatures.., as a high builds in. it went down to about 20degF overnight is there really any proposal for enough non wind-dependent, non sunlight-dependent, electricity to heat all the houses in new england? 10 years from now, houses in new england will mostly be heated by oil and gas, just as they are today. about the only renewable with a chance of making a dent in home heating over the next 10 years is wood pellets

did NY also place a moratorium on heating houses? i would bet >95% are heated with oil or gas - and i doubt that will change significantly any time in the next decade