aldie 22

Feels good to finally see rain falling again, hoping today performs as advertised.

After today the op gfs is like moms turkey....dry

33/30

Also looks like we want the first snow to be either more than 4" or between 1-2" apparently 2 -3.9" for that first snow is bad bidniz

Wonder how much has changed in the last 13 years found this work done by Ender on here back in 2010...i guess you can file this in the PSU first inch category of analysis. After reading mention of the "mid-Atlantic December 5th rule" I decided to take a look at historical DCA first .5" or greater snowfall dates and the implications for the ensuing winter. Here's what I found: If the first such measurement was in the month of November (11 cases) then the winter averaged 17.1" with 13.7" falling after the first Nov snowfall. If the first .5" or greater fell between 12/1 and 12/15 (17 cases) there Winter averaged 21.3" with 17.9" falling after the first event. If the first .5" was between 12/16 and 12/31 (13 years) then Winter averaged 19.2" with 15.4" falling after that first snowfall. If the first .5" was in the month of January (21 years) then the entire winter only pulled 12.1" with another 9.5" falling after the first snowfall. Looking at the results from the angle of first snowfall depth was somewhat more interesting. If the first snowfall was >4" then the season as a whole averaged 28.3" with 20.1" falling after the first storm. A total of 16 years met this criteria. If the first snow was between 2" and 3.9" then the winter's total averaged at 11.5" with 8.75" falling after the first event. In the 20 years where the first storm was between 1" and 1.9" the winter averaged 15.2" with 13.8" falling after that first snowfall. A total of nine winters saw a first .5" or greater snowfall of between .5" and .9" and those winters only averaged 12.3" for the entire winter. NOTE: I only considered a snowfall the "first snowfall" if the measurement was >=.5". So if .1" fell on 11/17 and .2" fell on 11/22 and .9" fell on 12/3 then as far as this "research" is concerned the first snowfall was the .9" event on 12/3. The average of the entire data set (1945 - 2010) was 16.5".

If I throw the towel how will I wipe the sweat off my head at Christmas?

Shaping up to be another one of those vibe shift days

Same

Just mowed...breezy but warm in the sun. Wondering if it's my last mow of the season

Loudoun County is being really poorly represented in the long range thread....yeesh

Thanks Oprah

Ankle bowl game tonight

I'm just riffing here guys but stay with me....if it hasn't snowed by easter then i am pretty sure this winter was not good. I mean i could be wrong but it's just a gut feeling

Only one left is Topper he will go dud

The winter vibes on the board seem to have shifted

Josh Dobbs and Brian Flores defense wins the day. It's definitely different watching a mobile quarterback. Go chargers

30

December is starting to come into view on long range NWP guidance & the latest JMA, CFSv2, & ECMWF weeklies all agree on a strong +NAO/+AO/-PNA becoming established within the next 3-4 weeks. Western-SW US troughing + eastern US-SE Canada ridge pattern (a -TNH) showing up in December is one of the classic hallmarks of a strong, east-based El Niño.

funny because Webb just canceled December on X

The ground is wet it must be really humid out

Wait until Eric Webb sees Doug's forecast

Does he know the dates are wrong

He nailed last year but if I recall he went big a few years ago and missed big

What the heck just happened...Vikings had no right to win but I'll take it. Atlanta must be awful and the Vikings backups are pretty good it seems. Sweet victory

If we are going to be in a cold/warm oscillating pattern then it can stay warm until early December then we can go cold mid Dec through mid January have our Jan thaw then February through March end with a bang. Im not a fan of October and November snows when it comes to what it means for the rest of winter but if it's the only snow we get then bring it.