I'll say this Fred, the models were saying our area was going to get drenched tonight into tomorrow and now that seems unlikely so color me skeptical about any model saying anything 15+ days away. Could be right...probably wrong
What is interesting is if you look at the precipitation pattern for summer and fall this map looks fairly realistic regardless of it being snow or rain
Some on here have been saying the gfs has been performing best. I'm going with that solution....I'll also wait for bamwx to chime in. Amped has his finger on the pulse as well