aldie 22

Yes I do understand

I think it is interesting when people can point out storms from the past that screwed their area from whatever...subsidence zone, cold dry air bleeding in, temps not quite cold enough etc. I mean if you can point out that it has happened several times before then I don't know maybe it's me but perhaps it's not that unusual for your area. It doesn't make it less frustrating but it also doesn't make it less your climo. I hope we all get some nice snow later this week.

I suspect you may still end up around 6" total.

If 12z isn't 2 ft for some I suspect that I may log off until the evening runs.

I'm convinced most here don't like snow or at the very least are never satisfied with what the models show. We clearly have the big dog hunters and they shall remain nameless but then there are those who simply can't accept a 2-3" snowfall if a model showed more than that days prior. All I know is people can talk trend this or trend that the only thing that is real is what the model says on its current run then the next then the next until game time. Sure you can get a range idea from the model runs but ultimately what it says right now is only for right now. On to the next model run!!

I mean honestly 12z runs tomorrow could look quite different than what this mornings looked like....good or bad

be aggressive be be aggressive!

I've never been one to care about getting the highest totals for any storm, not my style....I just want to be invited to the party to hold up a wall and look at everyone else having fun. Maybe this is the one that gets DC and the Southern burbs more in line with the rest of the region. I mean what really is the big deal between 4" and 6"?

Stubborn model there...GFS probably drops South dramatically at 12z i'd wager

Seems like 12z needs to make the move North on the euro in some form, the NAM seems a tad lost but who knows. The one thing i'm noticing and I might be wrong of course but nothing is really looking all that cold so as many have been saying we look to be playing with fire with this extended epic period.

Honestly I think a higher upside for you but i'm not very smart...I'm still suffering the effects of eating too much elmers glue paste in elementary school

I nailed my calls on the last two storms for both locations. I wanted to wait until 12z to make the call today but I've seen what I need to. Leesburg - 4-6" Sykesville 3-5" Subject to change but not really because I don't do that. Good luck all once I set my bar I just relax and don't stress the waffles up or down.

Just using simple addition from the site I look at for JYO 0z gfs had 1.10 liquid and 6z has .82 but 6z now has more for Sunday then 0z had in the form of sn/freezy rain. NAM barely gets JYO to 2" of snow I can look at DCA but I might need help spelling it ETA 0z DCA .93 liquid 6z .72

I'll take a blend of the GFS and euro please...hoping the nam is just having a bad day yeesh 6z was fugly. It would be nice to be around 20" on the season going into Sunday for both locations. It's looking like Leesburg might overtake Sykesville based on current modeling. I underestimated how difficult it would be when trying to choose between locations...snow is serious bidniz

NAM has been a little bouncey with this one

Sorta looks like that March 99 map Matt posted only a little north

early prediction....when the first wave comes in weaker the panic will be unbearable.

Bob Chill just called for 50" of snow in February

what's your bar for this....400"?

I think I'm picking the GFS over the Euro

Leesburg lost about 2-3" but Sykesville stayed about the same maybe a tad more. I'm good

Euro staying South GFS on the North side...that's not a bad thing I don't think...better than having everything going in one direction

So Baltimore is Carlton?

I thought it was referred to as Blair

There's a South Bel Air?