AllWeather

About 4.5” at chateau de la Moore in Manheim.

17.9” 1.5” liquid

A cigar and a glass of Johnnie Walker Blue Label, please.

I agree, and those numbers will probably change with today's full 12z suite in (or maybe after 00z tonight). Communicating this information to the average Joe is a science in itself. If you prepare people for a 6"+ snow, they typically will hunker down anyways. Then if totals go higher, it doesn't really affect them too much more other than additional clean up because they were already prepped to lay low (obviously if it's a crusher storm, the clean up can linger for days). On the contrary, if you prep people for a blockbuster, and it goes bust - well that affects people in a variety of socioeconomic ways (i.e. they closed their businesses when they didn't have to, took off work to stay home with their kids, etc). These forecasters must walk a fine line....it's easier for the public to understand if you go conservative and get surprised. However pitchforks are way more likely to come out if you overblow it and get surprised the other way.

Thank you for the kind words! And yeah, was always a real balance striking the right tone for a variety of different types of viewers. Some HATE snow, while others love it, so you have to be careful. My goal was always just to lay out what we know and be honest about what we didn’t know, and what could “go wrong” with a forecast. I think people respect that.

Giggity

Doing the showings this weekend! Told my clients to lay low Monday.

It’s the frame after that that gets fun. Mixing does creep north, but once CCB forms it gets squashed. See a 4”+ QPF lollipop in there around southern Lanc Co. That’s wild.

00z CMC Kuchera

Lanc Co has 36”+ per TT and still snowing.

CMC is a mauling.

And it’s still snowing on the last frame.

00z RGEM looks tucked and amped up.

Problem with Miller Bs. If you’re caught between the handoff you can be in that “screw zone” of subsidence.

Seems like it's all I have time for lately - the real estate market is INSANE right now. That being said... These Miller Bs are always butt clenchers....always. So many things can go wrong. That being said, I like the southern/southeastern half of the state per the ensembles. I also think with that anomalous fetch off the ocean, some underplaying in QPF on the globals is likely.

Like this: edit: look at that band in N PA into NY. Wow!

There seemed to have some sort of mini max from the Marietta area up into the northern part of the county.

Finished with 11” of a sleet sandwich in Manheim and it’s a beast to shovel. Sprayed some cooking spray on the shovel and that helps!

Sleet in Manheim, Lancaster County.

Golf ball sized snow here in Manheim. The sleet line cometh.

Yeah. That’s the good good right there.

Mesoscale Discussion 1854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2020 Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia...northern Virginia...western Maryland...and central to eastern Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 161857Z - 170000Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 2 inches per hour are expected to increase in coverage through the mid to late afternoon hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Heavy snowfall will likely continue into the overnight hours for portions of eastern/northeastern Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to gradually increase in coverage across much of the Mid-Atlantic region within a broad swath of strong warm air advection between 850-700 mb (per recent RAP soundings and mesoanalysis). Mixed precipitation types continue to be reported within the precipitation transition zone along the Roanoke to Fredericksburg, VA line. While a wintry mix, including pockets of freezing rain, will continue in the near term, this zone should become more limited spatially through the mid/late afternoon hours. Further north, moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall rates have been observed (as evidenced by visibility reductions to one-quarter mile and observed snow rates around 2 inches per hour for some locations in northeast WV). Heading through the afternoon, the low that is currently advancing northward along the Carolina coast will continue to deepen. As this occurs, mid-level winds will strengthen and begin to tighten the 850-700 mb baroclinic zone and augment warm advection across the region. As isentropic and frontogenetical lift increase, snowfall rates will see a corresponding uptick in intensity. Lift within the dentritic growth zone and weak instability closer to the coast will help further augment snowfall rates. Widespread snowfall rates above 1 inch per hour over the region are likely, and the potential for widespread snowfall rates exceeding two inches per hour will increase through 00 UTC as the potential for organized frontogenetical/deformation-driven snow bands increases.

Blow it up this way, k?

Yes - though that feature is getting going now as the primary is handing off to the coastal. A lot of what you see on radar is overrunning it appears.

Sounds about right looking at those returns in MD headed this way