Quincy
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Everything posted by Quincy
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You actually want slower movement now, so there’s less interaction with the initial exiting shortwave. Less opportunity to get tugged east. The models seek to be locking in. There’s some noise, but I don’t think there’s room for any major shifts west or east now that we’re getting inside of 72ish hours. -
Keep in mind, this thing is going to bend back N and possibly even NNE for a time around the Atlantic ridge, before a likely shift back N/NNW. Not seeing any interaction with an approaching shortwave across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. That will be key if there are any hopes left for a westward turn. I imagine it won’t go much more west than the current consensus, but you never know.
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Through 72 hours, it’s basically between 00z and 06z runs. Heading for Bar Harbor it looks like.
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No big changes, almost identical to the 00z run thru 57hr
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Even an east tick is going to still ugly for coastal eastern Mass. Especially Beverly toward Cape Cod Bay. N/NE fetch, gusts easily reaching 50-60+. Flooding is a real concern given the wind field size and trajectory.
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It’s guidance. Almost all guidance has some utility. You can identify trends, spread and uncertainty. Just keep in mind the usual biases. I’ll grant you all that the SREF should not be the preferred or only guidance you look at with tropical cyclones.
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Because I’m bored and I like that it shows the low centers. I mainly use that page for severe. But it’s really not that much different than posting 12km NAM stuff. 3km NAM coming into range soon. That’ll be fun
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09z SREF coming in, maybe a tick east? The odd thing is that the usually amped ARW members that were all on the western envelope, have seen some movement east. On the other hand, several NMM members have come west. The mean takes the center over the southwestern most tip of Nova Scotia. About 10 or 11 members out of 26 show a New England landfall. The consensus camp is into NS, but there’s more spread than the last run, as another cluster likes Maine.
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Yup. Less phasing and interaction with the trough. Retains more tropical characteristics. Need to see if I can fix that gif
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GEFS trend from 18z
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Another bump or two like this and big yikes
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At least a 100 mile correction west. 93hr is just about to make landfall near Bar Harbor.
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At 54hr, noticeably farther SW
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Food for thought
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Here’s the old 18z GEFS trend loop. Notice the slower trend, more west and stronger wind field. I’d expect the trend to continue with the rest of the 00z suite. Buckle up.
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NAM wind gusts, FWIW
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Movement from 78-84 hours looks pretty damn NW lol. Too bad it’s weenie range
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The NAM evolution is something. Through 72 hours, it’s still a bit south, but the key is that there’s virtually no phasing with the ejecting shortwave. Result is slower movement and solid warm core retention. Not only is it not getting pulled northeast as fast, but it still looks like a formidable cane.
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FWIW, NAM is slower, but the shortwave across New England late week is trending north slightly. This combined with the slower cane movement might allow for a longer northward trajectory, rather than getting pulled out NNE/NE like typical climo?
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Even if this thing stays east and skirts Maine, that’s an ugly look for the coast from the Cape, right up to Maine. The guidance I’m looking at retains a fairly robust wind core on the west side. Pretty remarkable for this latitude. Using the SREF as a sample because I like the tighter graphic, but even the EPS mean wind field is fairly symmetrical and largely intact on the west side.
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21z SREF low centers, in weenie range, but:
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SREF is trending west as well ASOUT On a trajectory for Maine
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Texas/Oklahoma 2023 Obs and Discussion
Quincy replied to Ed, snow and hurricane fan's topic in Central/Western States
I find it interesting that prior to this year, all of the dry summer periods occurred prior to 1980. You also have to wonder if the dry conditions helped support the heat, to some degree. (Borderline days where moister existing conditions would have supported upper 90s, while drier soil allowed temps to crack 100+) Either way, it’s definitely been an anomalous pattern across the Southern Plains this summer. -
Had a one off, Hail Mary chase trip to south Dakota today and caught an intense, long-lived supercell. It spawned multiple tornado warnings, but the main stories were hail and prolific lightning production.
