Quincy

I don't really expect much snowfall at all tonight. For some continuity and a slight amount of uncertainty, I painted the entire area with 2" or less of snow. Eastern Conn. and northern R.I. have perhaps a 50/50 shot at 1-2": of snow, while the rest of the area has a high probability of receiving less than 1". Temperatures and moisture look very marginal and although some precipitation should back southern sections of southern New England, I don't see it being a big deal. There may be a few slushy roads for the Thursday morning commute. I don't think it's fair to make a total snowfall map for both events. The coastal plain should rise several degrees above freezing during the day on Thursday with most inland areas also cracking 32F. Also, western areas that may see no accumulation at all tonight could easily end up with some of the higher amounts tomorrow night. The snow Thursday night into Friday morning ("Round 2") looks a bit more significant. It gets tricky nailing down enhanced snow along an inverted trough across eastern N.Y. and western New England. At the same time, precipitation closer to a center of low pressure well south of Cape Cod may bring a period of snow to northeastern Conn., northern R.I. and interior eastern Mass. Here, it's a big question mark where totals could verify either low or high. The computer models are having issues nailing down precipitation totals, while some say widespread amounts over 6" could be realized in my eastern 3-6" zone. I don't see it happening, but take that for what it's worth. The confidence for the latter forecast is only moderate, but this will be my last snowfall map for the period. Confidence is higher for the first round.

Just a very brief discussion: Low pressure slowly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A relatively broad storm with possible multiple low centers spin around and pinwheel periods of snow (some rain mixing in at the coastal plain) through the region from Wednesday into Friday. This looks to be an elevation-dependent event, but heavy amounts or precipitation across eastern Mass., eastern Conn. and much of R.I. will help offset some of the "snow losses." In those areas, 1 to perhaps 2" liquid equivalent precipitation could still result in a solid 5-10, perhaps 12" heavy, wet snowfall. The highest risk for 12" would probably be in southern Worcester County. Power outages are a concern, especially in southern and eastern areas. There, the water content will be higher and stronger winds are expected. Forecast confidence is moderate...the shoreline and southeastern Mass. could see an even sharper gradient. The banding nature of snow and timing with respect to day vs. night will be crucial in determining snowfall amounts. The snowfall totals above are cumulative, so a total of 10" may actually result in a snow-depth of 7" (for example) by midday Friday. The computer models are in decent agreement, although the GFS is a lot more conservative than all other guidance. I feel the GFS has had issues with this storm, despite originally bringing it back when the other models were keeping it south. Recall that the GFS backed off on the blizzard the day it started and totals were close to double what it had predicted.

Outside of the hilly terrain across the interior, this snow event does not look like a big deal. I expect 3-6"+ across the east slopes of the Berkshires and much of Worcester County. Connecticut only sees a brief period of rain, with generally 1-3" across the northern hills. The boundary layer temperatures are simply too marginal for much to change, especially with dew-points in the upper 20's as of early Tuesday evening. Downstream observations don't indicate that cold air damming across New England will verify stronger than modeled.

What a challenging forecast and I still think the models have more to resolve, mainly on Sunday with respect to enhancement of snow along a trough. Essentially, a light mixture of rain and snow overspreads the region through later today. Across the lower Hudson Valley, Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, I expect virtually no daytime snow accumulation. Low pressure develops south of the area tonight, but the heaviest precipitation and best lift also stays south. Some snow falls early Sunday morning and a period of light to moderate snow may develop for a good chunk of the second half of the day, especially across northern Massachusetts and central New England. Here, snowfall totals are forecast to finish in the 4 to 8 inch range by 12:00 a.m. Monday. (Could snow possibly linger later? Yes.) We'll see how things continue to change!

I expect mostly snow for just about all of southern New England (pictured on this map). Although there may be a brief mixture along the I-95 corridor in Conn./RI, I expect crashing temperatures and heights to bring a wind-driven snow right down to the coast and into eastern Long Island. As far as snowfall totals go, I think that higher ratios will help push NW Conn. and W Mass. to 20"+. Further east, heavy precipitation will offset somewhat lower ratios for 20"+ from IJD to BOS. There is still some uncertainty with areas further south on this map, such as NYC, BDR, GON...lower ratios and possible mixing don't give me enough confidence to go with higher snowfall amounts. With that said, I could see a scenario where even the Conn. coast gets 20". The Euro is basically a 15-25"+ event region-wide and this model has been outstanding with overall consistency in this forecast. Bands of heavy snow are expected to form and some orographic enhancement may bring this heavy snow right back into the higher terrain of western Conn. and the Berkshires. A snow-shadow effect may limit totals somewhat in the Conn. River Valley, but even there I think totals will come close to 20". Potential exists for 2+ feet, especially across central and eastern Massachusetts. The other story is the strong winds and power outages are a real concern along and SE of I-95. I think drier snow and somewhat lighter winds inland will limit power issues there. What really captures my interest here is that expansive moisture field aloft. Past storms, like Feb. 2006, for example, had a relatively narrow area of moisture. This was able to produce intense banding and 20-30" totals from NYC into W Conn. However, with this storm, the moisture field backs into most of NY and covers just about all of New England. The end result is several bands of heavy snow, perhaps even a "mega" band. Snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour will be likely for several hours and convection/isolated thunder is possible. Winds may gust to 50 MPH along and NW of I-95, with higher gusts to the east. I think we'll see many stations verify official blizzard conditions and Cape Cod/Islands could see hurricane force wind gusts.

I just want to quickly share my latest thoughts for Connecticut and surrounding areas. There's little doubt that a strong storm with plenty of precipitation will impact the tri-state area and southern New England Friday into early Saturday, but there are still a few details to discuss. Concern #1: Mixing along the shoreline. An initially "warm" boundary layer may cause mixed precipitation to fall near the Connecticut shoreline and coastal Rhode Island for several hours. With that said, as low pressure really intensifies southeast of Cape Cod, winds shift to the north and cold air pours on down. This will suddenly change everyone back to snow, even across eastern Long Island. Concern? Well, right now I have a wide range of 6 to 12 inches in the forecast. I'm leaning on the higher end of those numbers for coastal sections of Conn. and R.I., but there's still some room for change. These numbers could go higher, although I really doubt they'd trend lower... Concern #2: Deformation band of intense snowfall. These bands can be difficult to predict with accuracy and a slight shift could be the difference between 8 inches and 18 inches. With that said, I expect this band to impact the eastern half of Conn., especially areas like Tolland, Union and Woodstock that stay all snow and hang onto precipitation the longest. In that band, I am predicting more than 20 inches of snowfall. Bottom line...heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding are likely. I can see widespread blizzard conditions verifying for IJD, ORH, BOS and surrounding areas. (many areas not included in this map, such as northeastern Mass. and southern N.H.

Generally light snow overspread Connecticut from west to east during the morning on January 28th. Snow continued into the early afternoon and at the same time, warmer air moved in aloft. A change to sleet and freezing rain occurred from southwest to northeast, with portions of the I-95 corridor changing over to plain rain. Precipitation tapered off to intermittent drizzle with freezing drizzle across much of the interior by early evening. Snowfall totals were fairly uniform with most areas picking up 1 to 2 inches. The I-95 to I-395 corridor and points southeast generally received less than 1 inch of snow. A quicker changeover in lower Fairfield County may have also led to slightly lower snowfall amounts. Some of the hilly terrain of northwestern Connecticut picked up a little more than 2 inches of snow. I usually do color contoured maps as well, but I'm not sure it's really necessary for a relatively minor event. If you have any totals to add or ones that don't match up, please let me know. Sources include this forum, the National Weather Service, social media reports, WXedge.com, the Conn. Dept. of Transportation and CoCoRaHS.

I expect light snow to reach the NY/CT and NY/MA border around 9 a.m. or so and then overspread the area from west to east. The heaviest precipitation amounts impact northern Connecticut into central and western Massachusetts. Quick warming at 850mb should push most areas over to sleet and freezing rain. The cold layer aloft up to about 925mb looks deep enough where the inland hills may get a thump of sleet, while the interior coastal plain could see several hours of freezing rain. By late afternoon precipitation tapers off, but freezing drizzle could linger for many inland areas through much of the night. Basically expecting 1-3" of snow and sleet, followed by a glaze of ice for inland areas. Best shot at 3" is across the higher terrain of the Berkshires and Worcester County. Keep in mind that this total accounts for snow AND ice. The only area that is a bit of a question mark is the I-95 corridor (approximately). Will have to keep a close eye on surface temperatures and see how cold air damming is verifying. Right now I think that the immediate coast gets a brief period of snow/sleet/ice and then changes to plain rain. Also, somewhat lighter precipitation amounts here may also result in less of an ability for near-surface temperatures to cool. In a marginal setup, heavier precipitation can help result in more freezing/frozen precipitation.

This isn't really a big event, but due to the amount of discussion it's had, I felt a map was warranted. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes brings an usual push of generally light snow towards the Appalachians. A new area of low pressure is forecast to form east of the mid-Atlantic region, enhancing snowfall amounts ever so slightly around the coastal plain. This map does not show it, but light snow should extend southward into Virginia. I believe that most areas will see an inch or less of snowfall, with interior Mass. seeing little or no snow at all. I'm not even all that confident for 3" amounts, but I added them as a potential outcome for northern Pennsylvania, the outer Cape (Cod) and the Islands of southeastern Massachusetts. The column is fairly cold, from the surface right up through 850mb and 700mb, promoting snow growth and higher than "typical" liquid to snowfall ratios. I could see 15:1 ratios on the shoreline and 20:1 further inland. The end result is a light, fluffy snow that pretty much sticks on contact to most surfaces. Basically, most areas may see up to an inch, with the highest probability of 1"+ amounts occurring along and south of a line from Binghamton to Bridgeport to Groton to Providence to Taunton.

Thanks to some feedback, I cleaned up this map and added a few additional reports. There are still some gaps in Litchfield County, a report of 4.0 inches in Torrington made more sense based off of observations and radar imagery for that area. You can see how the higher amounts were generally confined to the higher terrain, with lower amounts in the Conn. River and Shetucket River valleys. Below is a color, contoured map I put together:

Thanks for the report! I have a few more to add and a few that need to be adjusted due to possible error.

Overall, a decent forecast. There were a few 4"+ reports, with most of them falling across lower Litchfield County and northeastern Conn.  Along the shore, the 2" line ended up being right down to the coast for New Haven and Middlesex Counties.

Should be a nice event for the lower mid-Atlantic region. I wouldn't want to have to forecast for DCA/BWI/ACY as the NW cutoff looks pretty sharp!

The image is comprised of snowfall totals from various sources, some of which include the New England forum on here. Snowfall totals across Connecticut were pretty uniform around 3-4", although slightly lower amounts occurred along I-95 and there were a few isolated amounts around 5". I'll post a contoured color map within the next 12 to 18 hours.

I see this event as a widespread 2-4 incher across most of interior SNE. The tough call comes along I-95 for BOS-PVD-GON, as often is the case. I do think most areas even along the South Shore get a thump of snow/sleet at the beginning. I'm not really all that confident on widespread 4"+ amounts, but I've outlined an area with a black dotted line that could see locally 5-6 inches. I also expect precipitation to quickly shut off in the morning (by 7 or 8 a.m. across much of Connecticut) and taper to drizzle near and SE of I-84 with pockets of "snizzle" or flurries/freezing drizzle across the higher terrain. Connecticut Forecast: On the shoreline...(< 2 inches) Although there may be a period of snow and sleet, temperatures near the ground will likely remain above freezing through most of the event. Combine this with with a changeover to plain rain and areas near the coast should see less than 2 inches of snow/sleet. Inland...(generally 2-4 inches) Most areas should see a period of moderate snow before a changeover to sleet. Precipitation may actually end as a period of drizzle late Wednesday morning, with pockets of freezing drizzle in the hills. Before the changeover, generally 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet is expected. Highest elevations...(locally 4"+) Due to colder air in place, Litchfield County and northern Tolland County may stay near or below freezing throughout the entire event. The end result is NEAR 4 inches of snow with localized totals that could reach perhaps 5 or 6 inches.

Map above is based on reports from various sources, including this board, the National Weather Service and data viewers from across the state sent in. Event Summary: Scattered snow showers reached portions of western Connecticut by late morning on the 29th. This snow was associated with weakening low pressure over Pennsylvania. The main storm began to develop east of Virginia during the afternoon. Steady precipitation overspread the state from southwest to northeast between about 1 and 3 p.m. Most areas saw snow, but some ice pellets and graupel were reported near and southeast of I-95. Coastal New London County even switched to rain for a time. Colder air moved in and a heavy band of snow set up over central and eastern Connecticut. Snowfall rates between 1 and 3 inches per hour hammered portions of New Haven, Middlesex and New London Counties. This area of heavy snow eventually moved northeast and also impacted Tolland and Windham Counties. This band was a bit more intense than some predictions, resulting in higher snowfall amounts than forecast. Extreme western Connecticut was too far west to be affected by this heavy snow. The heaviest snow fell between about 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. before the shield of precipitation began to break apart. After midnight, the only leftover precipitation was occasional snow showers. By then, the bulk of the accumulation was over. I still find the Feb. 7, 2003 analog to be quite good for this event, with respect to Connecticut. It's clear that with a warmer solution, southeastern Mass. could not have had such high snowfall amounts. Shift the axis about 75 miles SW and you get a VERY good match-up. This analog showed up as a strong match about 2-3 days before the event: The point was that interior eastern Conn. and NW R.I. was favored for the highest amounts. Forecasts for the storm were decent within 24 hours of the event, but before that, most were playing catch-up. What was expected to be a minor event turned into a moderate one with several snowfall totals in the 10-12 inch range, especially across eastern Connecticut. My own forecast (from 5 p.m. the night before the storm) was too high for areas SW of Conn. and was generous as well for eastern Mass. With that said, I could have also pushed the 6-10" zone back further west: The image below shows approximate snowfall totals from across the region: Heavy snow focused in on the eastern half of Connecticut and the radar image below shows moderate to heavy precipitation pounding southern portions of the state. At the same time, some observed 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour for a few hours.

almost everyone in my graduating class (only like 8 or 9 albeit) averaged C and Ds in almost all of the 200+ level Calculus and Meteorology courses. Not that I did much better, but...lol