Quincy

I didn't chase either and I'm more or less local. Of course now there's a big hail-producing elevated thunderstorm in northern MO, at midnight, outside of the MRGL risk area.

Agreed about UH tracks @nrgjeff, plus the HRRR hasn't been perfect lately. It's struggled a bit and part of that may be some initializing gaffes. Plus, we've been in some nuanced patterns, so it only takes a slight deviation in initial conditions to throw off model evolution. (even yesterday afternoon, the HRRR couldn't convect anything over the Oklahoma panhandle until a couple of hours prior, while the NAM/HREF caught on to the idea earlier. As SPC mentioned, boundary layer moisture was underestimated by some of the CAMs.) Going back to the HRRR "challenges," they're nothing major, as I still think the HRRR is solid overall with the big picture. One has to dig deeper into meteorology and observed conditions in the moment for finer-scale details. I like the HRRR in the morning to get an idea of possible scenarios, but it's mostly obs/radar/satellite from midday out. Today is still not clear-cut, but I guess it depends what one is looking to chase. If it's a relative higher probability of a tornado and climo-support, then go for the northeastern Colorado vicinity. If more robust, isolated storms are your thing, go farther south into southwestern Kansas/panhandle region. It may be a bit conditional there and the tornado threat is minimal (although I would argue that there may be a narrow window between 00-02z, assuming storms remain isolated), but I would think structure prospects and the potential for longer-lived discrete convection are evident there. With backing near-surface winds, dew-points in the lower 60s and substantially increasing low-level shear toward sunset, don't rule out some panhandle magic (or southwestern Kansas). I haven't given Friday too much more analysis since yesterday afternoon. I'm waiting to see how tonight evolves, as outflow may be a key player tomorrow. Nonetheless, my initial thought is that Kansas is the place to be, but that is still up for debate. For tornadoes, yes, let's drive dews well into the 60s. If it's structure you're after, the High Plains can work with mid/upper 50s, like what we should have to play with today.

Also for next week, the Euro is really ugly. The 500mb maps suggest virtually ZERO 500mb flow of 30+ knots in the Plains. A major failure of the calendar if it verifies.

Friday looks to have the best potential (over favorable terrain) in the coming days, particularly over Kansas. Tomorrow looks like a mess up north (northern Plains), while the southern Plains may struggle a bit with storm longevity. Not to mention that outside of the Dakotas, deep layer shear appears marginal (only around 30kts in the 0-6km layer). You'll probably get some locally enhancement in climo-favored northeastern Colorado, but that's about it. (A conditional threat may exist along a warm front in the eastern Dakotas, but that seems fairly conditional) Saturday looks to be just a little too late/east. A closer look at a consensus of guidance (which I will lean more toward the Euro) favors increasingly unidirectional mid/upper level flow and capping issues. An area that may have the best potential will probably fall near the lower Missouri Valley (northern Missouri and surrounding areas). I'm not sure that the eastern Kansas dryline setup will work. Sure, if the system slows a bit and we see a stronger signal for backing of low-level flow, then maybe, but we've seen similar setups fumble this year in such a scenario. With respect to the CFS, that might be a hiccup, but when it shows such low "values" for SCP during peak season, that's a major red flag. Taken verbatim, the latest CFS would be pretty dull next week, although you'd probably still have at least a day or two thread the needle somewhere, either along remnant outflow or terrain-aided.

I'm sure this has already been discussed, but can't understate the relevance of EML plumes with respect to significant severe weather in the Northeast. Not only did the 18z ALB sounding sample 7.7 C/km mid-level lapse rates (high-end, historically), but the expansive nature of >7 C/km 700-500mb lapse rates ahead of the entire line of storms yesterday was certainly impressive.

I almost went to Colorado today (nine hour drive), but am glad I didn't. Kansas was in the back of my mind, but I wanted to save a few bucks. It's really not a surprise that a storm went up in that area. We've had a few days over the past week that were capped just a bit too much for something over Kansas, but it was close. Today was a fine line between modest shear to the NW and plentiful instability to the SE. Outflow boundaries created a non-traditional outflow triple point, but it was enough to get it done. CAMs showed some potential for discrete/semi-discrete storm modes in south-central Kansas, but you would have really had to pick the right area. At 4:45 CDT, I had a narrow opportunity to go toward the developing cell south of Wichita (from Oklahoma City). It's a good thing I didn't go, because GPS would have put me in the right area about a half hour too late. It was a relatively short-lived tornado event. Most of the photos even leading up to the tornado were very grungy, so one would have to have been very patient, or just lucky. As we get deeper into May, it doesn't take much to get it done. For those who regularly chasecation or take trips to the Plains, this was an example of most favoring Colorado>Kansas, only to bust. Sure, the models had a nice UH track across eastern Colorado (and they verified), but the quality of boundary layer moisture and low-end instability were red flags that hail was a much greater threat than tornadoes. Again, Kansas wasn't clear either and that's what makes storm chasing so difficult. As well as Kansas performed today, you could envision a similar setup on Wednesday or Thursday, except due to other reasons, Colorado ends up producing a tornado. Then you have situations like 2016, where if you stayed in western Kansas for each day in late May, you would have seen nearly endless tornadoes, even though targets greatly varied from Texas to Nebraska.

Assuming we're near 320 right now and we finish May with only 323 (3 more tornadoes!), following 1991-2010 climo for the rest of the year would put us right at 1000. However, it doesn't quite work that well, as I mentioned earlier in the year, more than 50% of years and months finish with below "average" tornado counts. It's the big events/outbreaks/seasons that skew the average a bit higher. At some point, you do have to consider persistence and I do think if there was a year to finish with less than 1000, it was this year. We managed to pull off the feat in 2016, but peak season was fairly active that year. We also did it in 2013, but the second half of May was fairly active. I guess that speaks volumes, as if we stay slow, it's going to be that much harder to dig out of the hole. If things don't turn around in the next few weeks, this might be an even worse version of 2013. Imagine if 2013 was slow in May and didn't have November 17th, that's about as bad as it can possibly get...

Last week, May 6-12, was a staggering 91% below climatology (based on preliminary reports) in terms of tornadoes with only six. The only such period that saw fewer since 1950 was four in 1987.

This reminds me a bit of my days back in New England... When there was whispering of a "great" winter pattern setting up. The talk started in October, growing louder and louder into November. The conversation suddenly grew quiet, so much so that by the time March came and the ground was still brown, not a word was uttered about the winter that never came. While the season is not over, we're at the all-star break, but our team had a painful first half. Batter after batter kept striking out. Prospects in the bullpen couldn't throw a solid inning, let alone a complete game, and the number of home runs hit, let's just say, were nearly a record low. Sure, not all games were lost and even a play or two made the highlight reel, assuming you were in the stands with a good view on that isolated day. However, we're most likely out of contention for the pennant and we're well below .500 for the year. Sure, there could be a historic late season comeback, but barring something like that, this will be a year that simply wasn't ours for the winning. Yes, things could change, but the trends are becoming increasingly less favorable. The silver lining (I feel like I've been saying this all year) is that even the worst years seem to have a masterful performance between late May and mid-June. Think back to 2014, when an epically bad Plains season was rescued in the 9th inning with two outs by hitters such as Pilger and Coleridge, seemingly out of nowhere. Recall 2017, a year that saw several highly anticipated games only fall short, sometimes painstakingly short, of expectations. Another 9th inning wonder came to bat when a rare Moderate Risk on the Front Range, of all places, actually performed and featured a few photogenic tornadoes. Another year that comes to mind is 2015. That year, overall, wasn't great and it was the first and only time that I strayed west of the Rockies during a late May trip to the Plains. I had a friend with me and after two abysmal chases in marginal setups, I did not want to disappoint her with a week of sunburn. It resulted in missing out on the Canadian day. The drive back was perhaps even harder, as I was not paying close attention on my way back east, ending up in Albuquerque one day, when I should have been in Dora... We can all learn from seasons like this. My advice is don't live and die by the models with every breath. Forecasts change. Speaking again about my New England roots...some of the most memorable, major snowfalls were not anticipated more than a couple of days in advance. Sometimes a narrow band of snow, drawing parallels to a residual outflow boundary, waiting to be lit up, brought rush hour to a standstill as bystanders could only get out of their cars and look in awe. Likewise, magical tornadoes can spin out of seemingly marginal-looking environments. It is true that like snowstorms, some historic severe weather outbreaks can be well predicted, even as far as a week in advance. However, objective data tells us that beyond day 7, the skill of computer models becomes increasingly erratic, as extended model forecasts can and will change, sometimes drastically. In a way, I'm actually glad it's working out like this. I would rather have tempered expectations going into a below average stretch, than have hopes of fields of wedges obliterated morning convection and mammoth cap busts. The beauty of low expectations is that if the pattern does change, or if there is an unforeseen magical storm chase day, then it feels that much more special. The bottom line... peak season is just about here and the models look pretty bad for the next week and as far as we can see with at least modest confidence, the signs are not encouraging. As a chaser, you have a few ways to look at this. Are you going to wait and hope that the pattern does change, allowing for a stellar finish to the season, or do you dial back to reality? Be ready, but flexible. Expect the unexpected. Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. Stay optimistic, but don't be naive. You never know when the next MRGL or SLGT day could feature the storm chase of a lifetime.

This year has been comical. April was one of the coldest on record for parts of the country and now we're almost literally jumping right ahead to summer. #2018ing Quote from the latest SPC day 1 outlook:

The long range ensemble guidance isn't very impressive either. Just because there's some subtle troughing over the West Cosst doesn't mean much. That's late May climo. The difference this go around is that almost all guidance shows positive height anomalies over the Plains in late May, or in other words, shades of death ridge himself. Even though the overall pattern looks less-than-optimal, the fact that some troughing is modeled in the West suggests at least some shortwaves should be able to impinge on the High Plains. Maybe we don't get a big trough or an otherwise intense sequence, but with time, some of the key ingredients (particularly boundary layer moisture) will almost undoubtedly be there. As Andy mentioned, upper level flow looks weak, at least for the next 7-10 days. Troughing continues over Hudson Bay with plenty of robust jet streaks targeting the Great Lakes. Since the northeastern portion of the U.S. generally sees most of their higher-end severe weather events under a northwest flow regime, maybe they'll squeak out a big event or two? One can live and die by each model run, but it's healthy to take a step back. I've actually cut back how much I look at long range data, knowing that it will change a lot and late May to early June climo says that even the worst years see at least some noteworthy activity in the period. Still, it would be ignoring the data to refute the fact that trends are becoming less encouraging for the next 7-10 days, at least...

The 18z NAM and to some degree, the 12z Euro, show relatively large T/Td spreads throughout the boundary layer. This coincides with both models failing to initiate any convection in vicinity of the strongest bouyancy around 00z Saturday. The GFS, on the other hand, with large CAPE and somewhat less anemic low level moisture, shows precipitation blowing up in north-central Kansas. Another note is that the NAM, which I would lean toward, shows relatively high LCLs (around 2km), which makes sense given the relative lack of quality boundary layer moisture. With that said, the environment between eastern Colorado and the Kansas vicinity should feature at least some severe threat, given favorable CAPE/shear overlays, glancing effects of upper level energy and convergence along a frontal boundary. It will take some time to resolve mesoscale details, but I think one can justify the SPC slight risk. Otherwise, anything more substantial or widespread seems conditional, if not unlikely, at this point.

I haven't really looked into Thursday that much, but Wednesday has my attention, especially for areas closer to the Mississippi River. Still waiting on the 12z Euro to come into range, but I did notice that the last few runs of the Euro flip-flopped around with positioning and strengths of the wind fields. The overall sign is there for at least a marginal severe setup, given flow aloft and boundary layer moisture. It's still a few days out, so details are cloudy, but it is May and May is starting to look more interesting, especially in the longer range...

It looks like we may be, gradually, moving toward a more active pattern for the central states. With that said, even with some activity in the coming week, I'd be willing to bet that the week finishes at least slightly below average with respect to climatology for severe. That could change if the pattern late this week, that @jojo762 eluded to, looks more significant. Shortwave energy pivots from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes around the middle of this week. I don't think Tuesday winds up producing much of anything, but you can't rule out isolated severe in the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity, especially if boundary layer moisture trends improve. Wednesday is already highlighted in SPC's latest day 4-8 convective outlook, but that targets more of the Ohio Valley sub-forum. Thursday is progged to be a transition day, but details are tough at this point. Maybe it features isolated severe in the High Plains or even along a warm front farther east, but only time will tell. Friday-Saturday has the potential to feature at least one, if not two noteworthy severe weather setups in the Plains. Details will certainly change, but a positively tilted trough is modeled to swing from the Four Corners region into the High Plains through the period. The setup is not all that different from last week, although the speed of the system looks faster and troughing not as vigorous. Longer-range trends for the following week (especially mid to late next week) are increasingly encouraging. Perhaps the Lower 48 will finally be moving into a pattern with more consistent/substantial troughing across the western half of the U.S. It's been a long time coming, but in a way, it's better to see this pattern during the second half of May, rather than earlier in the season. Although it's tough to have much of a detailed look into late May, climatology and ensemble data suggest the signs are encouraging.

While I agree that the next 7-10 days (beyond Thursday) should be relatively quiet, the pattern isn't exactly bleak. Climo suggests that there's very often downtime in early May anyway, after the atmosphere reloads from late April (or in this case very early May) activity. Based on the OP/ENS Euro, a few weak impulses are able to impact the southern/central Plains in the northwest flow regime highlighted above. While upper level flow may be marginal, don't discount mesoscale features and robust boundary layer heating in areas like Oklahoma and Texas. Guidance in the longer range, i.e. days 10-14+, is even more encouraging, as that western ridge may shift eastward. We'll see!

Their discussion is a bit odd. They talk about a pattern change around weeks 2-3, but say that confidence is "extremely low." They then put out moderate confidence for average conditions in week 2 and low for week 3. Maybe it's nitpicking, but it seems to leave them open for just about anything during the period. Posting that map for early May isn't really anything astonishing at all, it's right where the climatological tornado probabilities peak: Pessimism aside, there is support from both the operational EC and EPS that suggests a shortwave trough may cross the central U.S. around the 4/30 to 5/1 time-frame. The GFS/GEFS is much more bullish in a deeper trough out west around the same time. The bottom line is that once we get through another week or so of an unseasonably lousy pattern for severe weather across the CONUS, there is at least some reason to believe that we return to near-seasonable levels around the start of May, meaning we have legit opportunities at severe weather events, outside of the Gulf Coast and Texas. I'm not very excited yet, but at least we're stepping in the right direction, if you are a fan of severe thunderstorms.

I don't think anyone's calling the entire season over, at least not without some sarcasm. We all realize that even in the worst storm chasing seasons, there are usually at least a couple of events/stretches that perform between mid-May and mid-June. What we have here is increasing confidence that the next 1-2 weeks will probably be unseasonably quiet. That says a few things: Since the ensembles and CFS dashboard have pretty good verification stats inside of 2 weeks, there is near-certainty that the next 1-2 weeks will be relatively quiet. It's pretty unusual to go through the last two weeks of April without a higher end outbreak and/or several active severe weather events. 4/29, 4/30 in 2017 4/26 in 2016 (with several other active days in late April) 4/26 in 2015 was a small moderate risk with a localized outbreak, but there were several events over the Plains from 4/16 through 4/26. 4/27, 4/28 in 2014. Yes, most of that was east of the Plains, but 4/28 was a high-end tornado outbreak in Dixie. 2013 was pretty blah, although there were modest events in Oklahoma on 4/17 and 4/26, a widespread wind event across the East Coast on 4/19 and fairly widespread large hail (with some significant) in Iowa on 4/30. 4/30 in 2012 was a decent event in the Plains and other days that come to mind are 4/21 with a several tornadoes in the Upper Midwest and 4/26 through the end of the month was a relatively active period in the Plains/Midwest. Recall that 2012 had a historic severe weather sequence earlier in the month... I don't think I really need to go into detail about 2011... 4/22 in 2010 featured a High Plains severe weather outbreak with modest events on 4/23, 4/24, 4/29 and 4/30. If you want to count an event in the mid-Atlantic, include 4/25. 2009 had several small to medium sized events all throughout the last two weeks of April. 2008 had tornadoes in 9 out of the last 14 days of April and while no single event sticks out as a "big one," 4/23 featured severe weather over a broad portion of the Plains with a localized outbreak in Texas, while 4/24 was a moderate risk/localized outbreak in the central Plains. This is just the past ten years and if you want to be a purist and say that tornado chasing in the Plains isn't always great in late April, you'd be correct, but this sub-forum includes areas farther east and the general discussion is severe weather in the central U.S. It's not "this is a thread that's only for tornado chasing west of I-35." Since tornado probabilities are rapidly increasing through late April, the quieter it is now, the more below average the year-to-date tornado count will fall. It is possible that a few days around the end of April could heat up, but confidence is very high that the next 7-10 days will be unusually quiet on the broad scale. The record for the longest start to a year ever with no tornadoes in Oklahoma is in jeopardy. After finishing today with no tornadoes, that places 2018 into a tie with 1970 with no Oklahoma tornadoes through April 18th of a year, dating back to 1950. There are still 8 more days to go to tie the record of April 26th, 1962, but one could argue that the odds of breaking that record are better than not breaking it, based on the synoptic pattern expected through the 26th. If you want to be a storm chasing purist or look at this from a chasecationing angle, then yes, the heart of the season is still out of range of most modeling and for all we know, could end up being very active. With that said, we've seen a trend this year for a lousy pattern and just about everything has gone wrong. Since 2012, 4 out of the last 6 years have been fairly dull, overall, in May and June. 2016 was fairly active in May, but then the pattern basically shut down for June. 2013 was pretty much garbage the entire year, aside from the second half of May and then two single days in the fall. Climate goes through ups and downs. Overall, the Plains has been on the bottom end of a roller coaster ride for several years now. I think seasons like 2008 and 2011 may skew some of our thinking. High-end events are relatively rare, but sway the mean. The result is that more than half of years will have "below average" tornado counts, but the years that are above average can be way above average, skewed by high-end outbreaks. On a personal note, this may be the first month of April that I don't have any storm chases since I started spring chasing in 2014. That says a lot, considering I live in Oklahoma now and in 2014-2016, I lived on the East Coast. I basically played climatology those years and did not even open up my schedule to storm chase during the first half of April. The bright side is that I haven't had too many highly successful chases in April yet, so from a storm chasing perspective, the season still has a long way to go.

The 12z EPS is pretty awful, with Great Lakes troughing right through day 15.

I actually looked closer at the data tonight and it's downright ugly. The weeklies show AOA 500mb heights over the central/southern Plains for 35 out of 36 days between 4/26 and 5/31. The CFS has all blue chiclets through May 3rd. (The CFS is not God, but it has support from other data) Overall synoptic pattern advertised on the GEFS/EPS over the next two weeks is not favorable. To be cautiously realistic, there is some potential for the pattern to amplify a bit around the last weekend in April, but even there, some ensembles suggest that we get some sort of cutoff low over the California region, which would not be very favorable either. Overall, the next two weeks, at least, look quiet. One cannot rule out one or two days that either overperform or come up on short notice, but aside from that, I'll go back to sleep as well.

At least we should finally start backing out of the historic fire weather concerns and exceptional drought in the southern High Plains. The operational models and ensembles are in very good agreement for at least 0.5-1 inch of rain by Friday night over a broad area that has seen virtually no meaningful precipitation since last fall.

Sounding climatology suggests that 60F dew-points would be high-end for the time of year. MAF sounding climo suggests a 55F dew would move into the 90th percentile, while lower 60s is the max for the 64+ year period of record. At AMA, 50F is already well above the 90th percentile, with almost no soundings eclipsing 60F dews in April. Remember that West Texas has a similar elevation to the CO/KS border region, as higher terrain does not necessitate higher dew-points as lower terrain areas. Dew-points in the mid and especially upper 50s would be sufficient. Mean mixing ratios of 11+ g/kg (which GFS shows) will get it done. With that said, I don't think there's any reason to believe this will be a major event, but it certainly has the ingredients for a respectable April event in the High Plains, assuming storms remain at least somewhat isolated. Let's keep an eye on it and see how moisture return looks. If it trends lower than it is now, then maybe we'll have a problem. At the very least. the setup should bring some much needed rain to the panhandle region, which has been plagued by a major drought and destructive fire season as of late.

The models are converging and a severe weather event is appearing increasingly likely on Friday, particularly from eastern portions of the southern Plains into parts of Arkansas, Missouri and possibly Iowa. Models bring a seasonably strong surface cyclone from the central Plains Thursday night to a position in the lower Missouri Valley vicinity by Friday evening. Ahead of a cold front, a plume of low to mid-60s dew-points is favored in the warm sector likely covering much of Missouri, eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and East Texas. This would support at least a narrow zone of moderate instability, i.e. CAPEs of at least 1000-2000 J/kg, particularly along areas from eastern Kansas, southward to East Texas, immediately ahead of the cold front. Due to cooling aloft, an upper level low approaches, convective initiation is expected during the afternoon with little to no capping, in a broad swath immediately ahead of the cold front and possibly in the open warm sector as well. It should be noted that the size of the warm sector is a bit of a question mark, leaving the greatest confidence to convection closer to the cold front. Areas displaced farther east may see more capping, along with less influence from the attendant upper level trough. More than adequate deep layer shear for severe thunderstorms is a given with a >70 knot jet streak rounding the base of the upper level trough. Probably the biggest issue limiting this from a more widespread tornado threat is the largely unidirectional wind fields in the mid and upper levels. Forecast soundings up and down the region from southern Iowa to East Texas show relatively straight hodographs in the 1-6km layer, with some subtle veer-back-veer signals as well. With that said, there is enlargement of 0-1km hodographs, as near-surface winds ahead of the southwesterly mid/upper level flow should be S to SSE in the warm sector. Take it with a grain of salt, but NAM forecast soundings in a wide area do show a bit of a sickle-shape in the 0-1km portion of the hodograph, but show kinks in the mid-levels. There may even be a tendency for winds to back a bit above 500mb, so the lack of a more veering-with-height throughout the column profile suggests there are some limiting factors in place in respect to tornado potential. There is some concern that convection may develop quickly over a broad area Friday afternoon with a tendency for storms to merge into line segments. Unlikely some recent severe weather events, mid-level lapse rates appear more modest, so large hail will probably be overshadowed more by the threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. In terms of storm chasing potential, the threat one does not exactly look to fall over favorable terrain, but there is some silver lining. Assuming the model progs do not speed up the system, then eastern Kansas may get in on the action. Eastern Oklahoma and other points east are far from ideal. The Iowa vicinity is a bit more of a wildcard, depending on how the surface low evolves. If a more wound-up low moves across Iowa, there could certainly be a play near the surface low/triple point. If the low is more elongated, like some data suggests, then I would be concerned about limited instability and messier storm modes with northward extent. Mesoscale details can be ironed out as the event nears, but the general area surrounding the AR/KS/MO/OK border region seems to have the greatest likelihood for severe thunderstorms, near and just ahead of the cold front. Issues arise further north (Iowa) and it's unclear how convection may evolve farther south, away from stronger large-scale forcing (East Texas). Given the synoptic pattern, at least scattered severe reports (including all hazards of hail, tornado and wind) are likely. Storm mode expectations lead me to believe that the window for tornadic supercells and large hail may be relatively narrow, but wind fields suggest that brief tornadoes may remain a possibility later in convective evolution, even if storms consolidate into a line or line segments. Damaging wind could end up being the more widespread story, given the strength of the expected wind fields.

This Thursday/Friday storm system is kind of funny. Instead of being upset or depressed with the following scenario, I actually take a moment to chuckle and move on. It's not worth it getting upset over a lousy pattern. Assuming the latest models are close to right, both the GFS and Euro take a <982mb low from west to east across Nebraska Thursday evening into the overnight. Despite such a strong surface cyclone so far north, the Euro struggles to bring 60F dew-points to the Kansas border by 00z Friday, while the GFS does manage to bring dews into the lower 60s as far north as Kansas City. All else put aside, if someone said that a deepening 982mb low was going to move across Nebraska in mid-April, the alarm bells would probably be going off for a potential severe weather event. Since temperatures aloft are going to be quite warm and low-level moisture will be lower-end for the setup, it's probable, if not likely, that no convection will initiate in the Plains on Thursday. Sure, the event is still several days out and if the low-levels improve a bit, there's still a shot at something conditional, but it looks like Thursday will probably be wasted. If that wasn't bad enough, Friday has better potential, but the warm sector will be relatively narrow, the best forcing becomes farther displaced from areas with more favorable buoyancy and most, if not all of the convection should initiate over "poor" terrain in the Arkansas/Missouri vicinity. Too slow for Thursday to be promising and probably too sloppy of a setup for a bigger event on Friday. It's also slowed down and shifted enough west that the corn belt region will likely be on the cooler side of the setup, rendering any severe threat close to zero there. The weekend looks like another trough over the eastern third of the U.S., but there are signs that the pattern gradually becomes more conducive for severe weather in the central states by the following week. That's not saying a lot given the calendar, but as it stands, it still looks like nothing major in the foreseeable future. We had snow yesterday and now the models show temperatures in the 90s to around 100F for parts of western Oklahoma on Thursday.

Daytime accumulating snow here in Oklahoma City. Pretty remarkable for April 7th. Still 26F at noon, despite an average high of 70F. According PSU e-WALL data, the temperature is 37F below average for 17z.

Assuming the model prog is correct, it's just a messy setup with a cold front crashing south from Oklahoma. Soundings ahead of the front show a monster cap near the Red River and into East Texas, although that is less of a problem up into Arkansas near the warm front. In such a scenario, we'd probably see a big squall line with perhaps a few embedded supercellular elements, but definitely HP. I also don't like the looks of limited CAPE in the lowest 2-3km. So far this year, we've had no problem driving the EML eastward with impressive 700-500mb lapse rates (probably dry air punching farther east with the ongoing High Plains drought and cold intrusions from the north), but a lot of the setups so far have had limited low-level CAPE. I guess that's to be expected until we're later in the season and it's easier to get surface temperatures into the 80s.