Quincy

I don’t know about that, re: SPC. Their outlooks are probabilistic. Although the parameter space was high, the model guidance was not showing a tornado outbreak. Since there was one lone tornadic supercell, well within their 5% outlook area, I’d say they did a fine job. It’s easy to criticize in hindsight. The problem with these setups is a lot of times, nothing happens. Sometimes you get one intense storm and even more rarely, maybe you get an “unexpected” outbreak. I was watching that storm a short time before it produced a tornado and yeah, it looked like it was rapidly organizing (increased lightning production, better radar presentation, etc.) but if you jump too quickly and always call for the worst outcome, you’re going to desensitize. The storm also looked like elevated junk when it first came ashore, but once it started ingesting surface-based instability and interacted with terrain, then it rapidly intensified Were the watches and warnings perfect? No. They rarely are.

Glad I didn’t second guess my decision to chase up north the past few days. Just not sure if there’s going to be anything worth chasing tomorrow.

Despite the somewhat veered 10m wind ob, there was a sickle shaped low-level hodograph (232 m2/s2 0-1km SRH) with 29 knots of 0-1km shear. Easily supportive, as you mentioned.

Couldn’t quite catch back to to the tornado that hit Gaylord. I was in Mancelona when the supercell was wrapping up and becoming rooted near the surface. Traffic, curvy roads and deep woods proved detrimental. Hope everyone is okay, that was an impressive radar signature, especially for so far north.

Parameter space is pretty high end looking across Michigan tomorrow, but residual capping and no obvious forcing mechanism ahead of the cold front suggest any threat is conditional, at best. A few CAMs hint at storm development in northern Lower Michigan, but I think that’s pretty lousy terrain for storm chasing.

Current storms look to be just north of the warm front. Large hodographs, but better low level thermodynamics are close to the IA/MN border.

Even though moisture is mixing out across parts of Iowa, moisture pooling along the warm front should allow for a narrow corridor of favorable low-level moisture. Most prominently in southeastern Minnesota. Keep in mind that the warm front will probably still nudge slightly farther north. Storm motion should allow for any discrete cells to stay near the warm front, at least early in the convective cycle. Given the orientation of the moisture, parallel to expected storm motion, there could be a scenario where one or two supercells can persist for a couple of hours, before storm interactions and/or nocturnal stabilization kicks in.

SPC maintains hail/wind-driven enhanced risk for northeastern Iowa into southeastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. They did bump tornado probabilities back down to 5%. With that said, morning trends are favorable if you want severe thunderstorms. CAMs show less early day convection disrupting the environment near a warm front in southern Minnesota. 14z observations show dew points already in the mid to upper 60s across southwestern Iowa. SPC mentioned possible moisture field disruptions from an MCV over Missouri, but it looks like moisture recovery is well underway. Confidence is highest in convective initiation by mid to late afternoon around south-central/southeastern Minnesota. Initial storm mode should be discrete or at least semi-discrete. Storms that track near the warm front, especially as the low level jet strengthens this evening, may pose the greatest tornado threat.

The main thing that worries me is a series of perturbations that swing through the Upper Midwest around late morning/midday. That could overturn the environment and disrupt return moisture flow. Hence why some CAMs only manage to initiate 1-2 storms right before 00z. With that said, the model, ensemble and analog consensus continues to show a potentially volatile environment along the warm front near MSP toward southwestern Wisconsin by peak heating. There are even some signs that a broad area of conditionally favorable instability/shear could evolve over much of Iowa and southern Minnesota across the warm sector by 00z. This is why some CAMs are rather aggressive with a broken line of supercells erupting by early evening near the IA/MN border.

Today looks interesting across Minnesota, but I’m not sure that the moisture and wind profiles will support anything more than brief/transient supercells. Upper level support is there, but some veering low level flow will likely limit SRH. CAMs show a broken line of marginally organized storms, which seems realistic given the environment. Thursday has bigger potential. SPC is playing it a bit conservatively for now. The CIPS analogs show a very strong signal for severe thunderstorms around the northern Iowa/southern Minnesota area, which lines up with the jet axis and expected warm front placement.

A pair of intense bow echoes are moving across central/eastern Kansas tonight. There have already been several measured wind gusts to 75+ MPH.

Just barely squeaked out 90F at DFW today, but it counts. The streak probably won’t break until Saturday, but there is a strong signal for a cold frontal passage this weekend, which could make it as far south as the Gulf Coast.

As we approach the climatological peak of the severe weather season, the threats for severe storms should continue in various forms through the balance of this week. Tuesday: The fringe of enhanced northwest flow across the Missouri Valley/Midwest may glance appreciable instability across the Central Plains vicinity. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms are anticipated, along with at least isolated severe thunderstorm activity. Wednesday: As the upper level flow pattern resets, a belt of enhanced winds should eject from the Northern Rockies toward the central/northern Plains. Only modest instability is expected across the northern tier, as well as over the High Plains. Regardless, a few strong to severe storms appear possible in both regimes. While somewhat greater instability becomes displaced to the east, a more appreciable severe threat may evolve across the eastern fringes of this sub-forum, before moving towards the Ohio/Tennessee valleys. Thursday/Friday: A more expansive and potentially active severe weather setup could evolve across the Central U.S.. Details may still change, but seasonably strong upper levels winds are progged to eject from the Rockies across the plains and toward the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by the start of the weekend. While the trajectory of the ejection is not classic for mid/late May, (trough appears more elongated and progressive) it should spawn at least scattered severe thunderstorm activity. Beyond Friday, there are signs of another pattern reset, which could result in a few days of less active than usual conditions, from this weekend into early next week.

CAMs have been struggling with the MCS this morning. Trends look to be a bit more robust and somewhat farther SW. It looks like the convection will move toward the KS/MO/OK border area. Still think some isolated supercell development is possible on its southwest flank over eastern Oklahoma, but keep an eye to see any outflow shunts the threat farther S/SW. (not as far as OKC though) Edit: Now that l look, the NSSL that was posted above seems to be the closest to current obs. That model shows more of a supercell threat down near I-40 and into southeastern Oklahoma. Seems to line up with trends, also considering the system will likely accelerate faster than progged.

PDS severe thunderstorm watch for southeastern South Dakota and vicinity says wind gusts up to 105 mph are possible.

Day 1 wind-driven moderate risk issued today for parts of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. Based on wind profiles and model simulations, looks like storm mode will go linear very fast. This definitely has the feel of a summer setup, but it should help usher in somewhat cooler temperatures for the north-central states.

Relatively messy storm mode so far. Keeping an eye on an arc of semi-discrete cells around the Sioux City area. Those may have the least disrupted inflow environment to work with. Storms farther north appear to be clustering and interacting with cooler outflow, while storms to the west near the MCV center are likely elevated.

Localized supercell potential evident today in the front right quadrant of an MCV, which is moving into Nebraska late this morning. The threat should maximize between far northeastern Nebraska and southwestern Minnesota, where supercell wind profiles impinge on large/locally extreme instability late this afternoon. The main limiting factor I see is that there may be some subtle veer-back signatures in the wind profiles, due to the MCV moving NNE (southerly component to 500mb flow). Wind fields should improve toward 00z and especially with northward extent, with a lifting warm front, moving north across southern Minnesota. I’d expect an arc of semi-discrete supercells to intensify and tend to cluster, as they track across the NE/IA/SD border area. There is certainly a window for a few tornadoes, but storm mode may limit this from being a higher end localized event. If any isolated cells form ahead of the main arc of storms, they could pose a somewhat greater tornado risk across southern Minnesota.

We hit 92F in Oklahoma City today. Wichita Falls, TX hit 103F. Believe it or not, that only tied the record for May 8th.

Sunday the 8th looks like it will mostly remain capped, but maybe there will be isolated severe storms. Monday appears to have the most apparent potential through this period. Most likely in or near Iowa. The 10-13th is forecast to be an odd pattern for early/mid May. Pronounced ridging across the central U.S. and a cutoff low across the Southeast. I’m not sure there will be much overlap between appreciable forcing, shear and instability. Still, I could see a few severe storms, somewhere between the central High Plains and Upper Midwest.

What a mess for chasing. I doubt anyone saw tornadoes unless they were right up close. And many chasers (and tourists) were way too close. Witnessed many chasers, including tour vans, fragrantly breaking traffic laws on the roads.

21z FWD sounding still shows a cap holding on. Warm front is basically stalled just north of the Red River. Thinking OKC is going to be spared the worst, but we’ll see how it continues to evolve.

Relatively quiet this far. Panhandle storms appear to be overrunning the warm front and ingesting cooler air. Low level lapse rates are still unfavorable across most of Oklahoma. A cell tried to go up near Abilene, but weak forcing seems to be the issue there. Focus moves toward a dryline bulge, just east of Lubbock. It looks like we may have convective initiation now after a failed attempt earlier.

18z sounding from OUN is ugly if you want tornadoes. At least for the next several hours, as there’s a stable near surface layer.

Trying to save data, so embedding tweets instead of uploading more images. Low level lapse rates look to be a noteworthy limiting factor for central Oklahoma, in terms of tornado potential this afternoon. Not all that much different from 5/20/19. If lapse rates stay low, as is expected through 6-7 PM, the tornado threat may be limited to closer to the Red River. This doesn’t mean that tornadoes can’t happen, but that the threat with northward extent may be more marginal and could hold off until after 00z/7 PM.