H2Otown_WX

Least we can look forward to Cincy and Indy obliterating our seasonal totals by Monday. Let the good times roll.

For the 11th?

Alright let's do it, is the 11th a different threat from what was the 8th and 9th or did the timing just change?

Why should I go to the cry baby thread? Nothing I said is untrue. And no, I didn't grow up in the 80s. We were getting nice solutions for the 5th-6th and 8th-9th on the models a few days ago and now they backed off...it's not like they only backed off for one cycle. The threat on the 6th is looking pretty close to dead even though it's still almost a week out and the main players giving a suppressed look for the follow up wave aren't going anywhere so I'm not sure why you expect the outcome to become more favorable as we get closer.

Well Idk man, go back to like 4 days ago and we were discussing two threats, one on the 5th and one around the 9th. Now we have pushed that to the 11th. I'm not saying the pattern won't produce but it seems like we may be waiting until the third week of the month. Which sucks because it seems like every winter the first 6 weeks of climo winter are just pissed away. Yeah yeah yeah, we lucked out with a couple of little over performing events but you know what I mean. The general tenor of the last like 10 years is to just waste 12/1-1/15 or so.

Feb 2010 still hurts. We were so close to something beyond even Jan 2011. Especially for the "Snowicane" being in Danbury for that I could smell the rain/snow line.

Meh, we'll probably wait til the period highlighted in @40/70 Benchmark Winter Outlook

Looks like you did?

It sucks away from the south coast. Looks like something straight out of 2010. That's the risk we run with this pattern. Atlantic blocking is overrated for us...well, for me I'm far enough southwest it can help but I would rather take my chances with an overrunning pattern at peak climo.

Could be OTS could be a BECS. We just don't know. All the chips are on the table. If it plays out as shown the melts will be legendary.

Congrats Texarkana?

Just missed, the wave spacing could be an issue. Of course this is so far out it probably doesn't know which energy to key on...I think if you consider its bias to be too cold in the LR we're sitting in a good spot at this juncture.

Alright since no one else is gonna mention it, the 00z GFS is a sheared POS for 1/6

Don't feed the troll

Where's your obligatory 348 hr 2m temp map?

Meh, LBSW

February '06 I'm sure Hartford hit over 20" since I know W Hartford had like close to 30. Perhaps Feb '01 and January '11 came close but probably a bit short. For BDR I would guess they had over 20" in the Blizzard of '96 and probably PDII.

Pretty sure the 1 in Naugy is BS but whatever

It's ok, we'll just kick the can to mid Jan

Hmm, I can think of a couple exceptions...December '04 and December '14 sucked but the winters overall were great. I mean '14-'15 relative to east of the river wasn't but it was still above normal snow and of course the record cold in Feb '15.

Lake Flaccid?

Let the can kicking begin

I'm not questioning his expertise or knowledge. I just get skeptical of a big change until it gets inside D9-10. So far I'm seeing ensembles showing a change around D14. How many times do we see the pattern get significantly delayed and or not end up being as great as advertised? Do you know what phase/amplitude the MJO is looking like for early Jan?

Imagine being in MSP