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H2Otown_WX

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Everything posted by H2Otown_WX

  1. H2Otown_WX
    Is it a red flag that it keeps oscillating between leaving the energy in the SW behind on the 00 and 12z runs and phasing it on the 06 and 18z? I know there was discussion earlier today about how the off hour run thing doesn't exist but that seems suspiciously coincidental.
  2. H2Otown_WX
    Partial phase?
  3. H2Otown_WX
  4. H2Otown_WX
    Snowgoose says it's a no go in the NYC thread and I respect the hell out of him as a forecaster.
  5. H2Otown_WX
    Maybe time for an avatar change to shake things up?
  6. H2Otown_WX
    Its own ensembles think it's out to lunch...almost half have nothing and a few are suppressed to the south congrats DC-PHL type deals. Looks like maybe 3 that are similar to the OP.
  7. H2Otown_WX
    Looks nearly identical to the 18z GFS until it jumps SE in the later panels. I'm wondering why it's so progressive when we have the blocking in place? I guess because the block is relaxing a bit in that timeframe?
  8. H2Otown_WX
    Do you have the prior frames or does it not form until hr 174?
  9. H2Otown_WX
    I would say the 18z run does look similar to that storm but that changed BOS to rain
  10. H2Otown_WX
    Not that it matters but don't you think the 700 mb track on the 18z is much less favorable than 12z? Looks like there would be dryslot issues for CT anyway.
  11. H2Otown_WX
    How do you use December '92 for every analog?
  12. H2Otown_WX
    Yep, you were right. Two runs in a row now...I would like to see it on some other guidance too. I know the EPS improved so hopefully that continues tonight. Can't say I feel too great about being close to the jackpot zone at 7 days out but at least there seems like a good chance of something.
  13. H2Otown_WX
    Not to be a Debbie Downer, but all the GFS has done is tease us with ridiculous BECS solutions over the last 3 weeks only to pull the rug out the next run. Theres nothing about this setup that looks less precarious with a positively tilted trough axis and confluence pressing down. Then we are relying on the southern s/w to eject at the right time. Too many moving parts imo.
  14. H2Otown_WX
    Plenty of time for it to get worse, too. The MO of the last like 7 winters is to find the worst possible solution. Basically the opposite of the previous 15 winters or so where things would trend better and it found every excuse to snow with the exception of the years that were well below normal like 06-07 and 11-12.
  15. H2Otown_WX
    Congrats Virginia Beach
  16. H2Otown_WX
    Yeah, this is immensely disappointing. Just when you thought we shook Stein he comes back to begin peak climo after a 6 week hiatus.
  17. H2Otown_WX
  18. H2Otown_WX
    This blows...-NAO screwing us out of snow Monday and a torch after the 10th. EDIT: Nvm. Stupid -EPO is giving us useless cold.
  19. H2Otown_WX
    Fixed
  20. H2Otown_WX
    Idk, can we trust the GFS? There was a time we would just throw it in the trash but it is much improved. Mid Atlantic weenies hanging their hats on the Canadian lol...definitely would like to see the Euro make a big move in 90 minutes.
  21. H2Otown_WX
    I'll have to hand it to you and DIT if it does
  22. H2Otown_WX
    Honestly I thought we'd be like 2-4" for southern CT looking at 500 mb. I guess the confluence is still too much, hell of a SW-NE gradient.
  23. H2Otown_WX
    Horrid
  24. H2Otown_WX
    I've noted the temperature sensor runs too warm but apparently the techs don't care lol
  25. H2Otown_WX
    Something weird happened at BDL over the weekend where the dew point got stuck. It was running like 10 degrees cooler than surrounding stations. From what my supervisor said it sounded like it just corrected itself. Have you or your techs ever seen that happen?
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