H2Otown_WX

I'm not questioning his expertise or knowledge. I just get skeptical of a big change until it gets inside D9-10. So far I'm seeing ensembles showing a change around D14. How many times do we see the pattern get significantly delayed and or not end up being as great as advertised? Do you know what phase/amplitude the MJO is looking like for early Jan?

Imagine being in MSP

All I ask is to not look at phantom epic patterns that are always 300 hours away. Brooklyn should just make an animation of the great pattern staying at the same hour for run after run lol.

This calls for the gif from way back when of you and a couple others jumping into the endless void. Wish I had it.

Anyone know how much fell at Logan? It looks like 4.8 on the PNS map

Good luck out east. I was hoping the NAM would score a coup but instead it got into Ron Washington's coke stash. Nothing to look forward to either, LR looks like turds.

What an absolute toaster bath here

Any other model you would like to inflict pain on?

Might need to move to Neptune at this point

Haha yeah I was looking at 00z although it was the Euro that looked more interesting from a precip chance perspective. I was noting mostly that the GFS was also not all that warm temperature wise between Christmas and New Years. It looks like as bad as the 06z is it also doesn't have a huge warmup.

Pretty intriguing run of the Euro last night with multiple light to moderate threats running into the defacto block Will alluded to yesterday...very active pattern. Both the GFS and Euro have really backed off the huge torch between Christmas and New Years they were showing a few days back.

Oh ok Will...wonder if the EPS agrees? Also, the GFS is showing the first part of the long duration event beginning at D6-7 before the ridge gets into the NAO domain. I'm thinking the airmass under the block won't be very good but I'm sure Pike north could still get a decent event if something like the GFS would come to fruition.

I mean, I'm no expert but that evolution on the GFS is something that just doesn't happen...especially without a -NAO. I'd heavily favor the non-event the Euro shows at this juncture.

Dick Tolleris honking means it ain't happening. Or watch it be congrats DC.

Most of us are solidly on the board. It could have been an at or above normal snowfall month for a larger area, we just didn't know. No one did. Could be a snowy month for January, could be a rainy month. We'll just wait and see.