DopplerWx

hello!

clipper still looking healthy on the 12z gfs.

Just now, Queencitywx said:

I was thinking we'd see a colder solution with the low being over LA this run. We'll see, I guess. 

really not too far off from a decent storm, and not far off from nada.  at least we have something to watch. and i tihnk the small event next weds needs to be watched too.  those usually can catch us by surprise.

really gets cranking on the back half, plenty of time to go still.

clipper on the 5th with a shot at snow showers for central nc.  past few gfs runs have beefed up qpf for it.

33 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

CLT is an enigma that seems to take even more things going “just”right.  We are either just a few miles too SE to be cold enough to get a winter storm.  Or, we are just too far NW to get in on the main precip when we have the cold. 

I don’t have the data to verify but I’d wager that places like Shelby which is barely west from here gets more wintery  precip than us.  Or at least more storms where they get wintery precip.  

I myself am only about 15 miles (by car) from downtown CLT and there have been multiple times when CLT gets more than us.  Being SE has helped us a few times with coastal bombs as well though.  In general its normally either I-85 or I-77 though that is the dividing line and it’s usually a VERY sharp fall off.  And those merge in CLT.  Same happens with many CAD events.  

I’ve seen it snowing on upper levels of high rises but be raining at the ground level because the cold air is that close.  Very frustrating at times.

yep you just have to stay grounded in reality and climo and ignore the models even when they all show a big dog.

26 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Sun sngle, ground temp, planetary alignment.  Pick your poison lol.  The cliff will never be too high to jump from!  Not referring to you.

models not showing the warm nose as the low bombs offshore until the NAM shows 8" of snow change to 3" of sleet and rain 36hrs out while we argue that the NAM is trash and to trust the gfs/euro ensembles showing a foot of powder....

all hypothetical of course.

3 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

I'm curious to as to how strong winds will get for the Carolina's, especially along and east of I-85. Looks like you are going to get some pretty significant gusts as well. I'm in Union County, NC which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. 

i've been weary of any sig winds near clt but with the RI as it made landfall and the insanely impressive eyewall structure even as it is completely over land...this will catch a lot of people off guard.  goodness.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

919 extrap. holy...

it is right on track, atlanta is not going to see 40mph+ gusts over an extended period.

looks like some amazing fall weather coming in behind michael friday, lows in the low 50s thru the weekend!  FINALLY some crisp nights!

thinking the cold front showing around the 15th may be legit, will be one heck of a shock to most when/if we go from 80s and humidity to highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 40s!

14 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yep, and just today the GFS has pushed it back yet again, now showing 14th-16th. It's all a hoax, cool downs are a thing of the past for the SE. 

don't even need a cold front, just getting us to near average would be a godsend. crazy our avg lows now are in the low to mid 50s! by 10/14 our avg low will be 49 and we likely won't even be sniffing upper 50s!  brad p tweeted earlier that september was so warm in charlotte that it was warmer than 73 of the July's on record. (1878-2018).

9 minutes ago, Powerball said:

FWIW, the humidity has dropped off a bit.

Dewpointa are now in the low 60s, lol.

yea i noticed it wasn't quite as hellish this morning, but still i would love some true fall dewpoints.

euro and gfs thru the end of the run are STILL ridiculously warm.

this sucks.

53 minutes ago, BK Rambler said:

Latest dates for first <60 temp:

ATL  10/8 (1911, 1925) only five years in total occurring in October - ATL has yet to reach 60 this year

CLT 10/5 (1881) only three years total occurring in October - note CLT hit 54 on 8/24 this year so curious about Brad P's statement

Greenville, SC (not GSP) 10/13 (2005) only instance in October (note GVL was 61 and GSP was 59 the morning of 8/24 this year)

Raleigh (not RDU) 9/25 (1906) - note Raleigh was in the fifties 8/24 & 25 this year

 

he meant for the month of september. sorry i meant to say no temps below 60 for the month of sept.

just announced that the euro will run 4 cycles/day starting in oct.  winter will be fun, and cliff diving will be even more prevalent now!

Brad P noted that this will likely be the first year since 1933 that CLT hasn't dipped below 60.  Crazy stat as our avg lows now should be around 55 right now.  Are some low dew points too much to ask for!?  

gfs finally showing some cold fronts coming down around the 27th.  euro showing it too.  would be nice to get our first crisp morning around the first of october!

12z gfs has no 50s (or even lows 60s) thru the end of the run. 

6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Right but they wobble....its done this all afternoon....averaged out it looks like this....

 

watch the radar, it is moving wnw, storms dont travel in a straight line. *click to animate

look at those cloud tops, wow!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&amp;product=vis

12 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

I can agree with this assessment. NHC still shows the movement as of the 1pm update NW at 10 mph.

recon shows a near due west turn over the past 3 passes.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

9 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. 

She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC.

per the most recent recon pass the center as already begun the turn.

3 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

It appears that she is already moving more to the west. Almost every model has her moving W then WSW. Now she may not make "hard south turn, but it's hard to go against modeling when there seems to be a general consensus. 

yeah, a lot of wishcasting it into northern nc it seems. literally every model shows a nw drift followed by a west southwest turn.