DopplerWx

2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I guess verbatim we are a lot of sleet then temps do finally crash hard and we flip to snow.  But goodness...it has solids snows into Indiana and WV...several inches.

this is either going to be the coup of the century for the nam or we will be laughing 24hrs from now at how nervous it made us...i hope the latter.

i just dont get the nam being on an island 24 hrs out? esp with the rgem in line with the euro and gfs ens.  really weird.

if the sref plumes gave rdu 15"+ (which it did in the 2015 storm) i'd throw it out, not concerned at all with that. gfs ens members are all hits, euro is a hit, euro ens are hits, rgem is a hit.  really we are in a good spot.  

1 minute ago, rawlee said:

My call map:

 

 

smart call

gfs looks great, holds serve! i can relax a bit now

forget the models! its nowcast time! 

memories of the last few years of big snow totals forecasted only to end up sleet are making me nervous.  hope the gfs holds serve, not much wiggle room here in wake.

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Whew.

temps look fine for us, i can breathe now.

1 minute ago, burgertime said:

GFS PARA looked like the NAM 

which run? 00z last night looked good and i dont see 06z out yet

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Well RDU looks to be all frozen on UK but probably mixing with sleet.  QPF still about 0.75"

 

1

thank god. 

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

We finally have a major SE winter storm on imminent and this place is a graveyard!

nam scared tf out of everyone. wouldnt be a se storm without everyone sweating bullets 36hrs out.

can i fast forward 24 hrs now. thanks.

1 minute ago, packbacker said:

It's over...GFS shifted NW and we are tainting, by this time tomorrow we are 35F and rain.  GSO to RIC to DC will jack...same ole same ole.

man, its gonna be boom or bust for us. if we stay all snow we will get crushed, if we mix it will be a bummer but should still get some accums

panic is about to ensue

2 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

What about the Para Nam. I hear it is better. 

para nam is all mix for rdu, almost worse than the regular nam

nam just in time to cause the pre-storm panic!

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Bingo! The slight South shift on 0z GFS, is fine with me! As long as it's colder, I'd rather worry about qpf, instead of temps! But widre said everybody sucks at temps and will all melt on Saturday! LOL

 

sun angle may kill accums too, along w/ground temps. 

Just now, Cold Rain said:

The NW trend always happens.  Without fail.  Don't let your guard down!

what part of wake are you in? im near the airport so i guess i have a little wiggle room lol, just would love to see a swath of snow feeding right onto us all night and into sat.  wouldnt get much sleep for sure.

guys, no need to freak out over temps. i know we ALWAYS have temp issues but even the warmest models have wake cty all snow.  we are in the sweet spot. enjoy the ride and don't fall into the 48hr panic that hits before every storm.

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

What just happened...we went from only the GFS/Para to now UK/CMC/Para and GFS is weak and progressive.

00z runs, we toss!

2 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

EE Rule in effect!  Storm cancel! 

if the 00z gfs comes in looking worse than 18z the full meltdown will be in effect.  happens every winter lol.

also, southernwx shows you what this board would look like without mods, absolute ****show.

Just now, Cold Rain said:

When do the GFS sucks posts come out?  Around hour 192 or 204?

dude its 12z, toss it. 

2 minutes ago, jshetley said:

I know I'm right at least about the next 10 days. Someone on the other board started a thread dedicated to it, LOL. That was the kiss of death for this storm.

only thing left to do is have a radio show and it would be a guaranteed cold rain.

Just now, Wow said:

GFS shears out the collection of shortwaves.  Suppressed and cold.  Not bad to see at this time.  Got the Greenland ridge back.

need to post your thoughts the main thread, dont want your input going here in the outhouse.

no worries, just add water to this and you can have as much snow as you want!  placing my orders now!