OHweather

Nice little glaze on the trees here. This feels worse than the winter of 2011-12 locally. I’ll be happy with any additional snow we get but at this point am enjoying the relatively mild temperatures that are locked in…it’s the hand we were dealt this season.

I managed to complain my way to 3.7” of wrap around/LES from pre-dawn Thursday through this morning. A little over an inch new overnight last night.

Seemed like all of the reports in Lucas Co were between 4-6” (but with no one reporting a full 6.0”). It was relatively impactful for Toledo as it snowed hard with a number of accidents involving semis on the interstates near the city in the early afternoon, but slightly less QPF due to the dry slot and low ratios ate into the expected snow totals a good bit. Just west where rates were more consistently heavy (and it was more like 32-33 degrees) got a goos 6-8”.

Just a POS, junk system here the last two days. Estimated slightly less than 2” of snow yesterday morning here, but wasn’t home for most of it and it was down to an inch of new slush by the time I got home. Watched it snow half decently and melt on contact all day at the office in Brooklyn Heights…in hindsight, my snow forecast for the LES in the CLE metro was too ambitious since it didn’t stick all day today and because winds backed SW quicker than initially modeled this evening. At home in NE Summit County it did accumulate better than closer to the city of Cleveland and it did come down for a time early this evening…a little over 2” new today.

Temperatures ran 1-3 degrees warmer than expected across almost all of our area and accumulations suffered quite a bit outside of the higher terrain and some areas closer to US 30 where heavy snow arrived earlier. A coworker near the office in Cuyahoga County had 1.6” of snow on 0.33” liquid which is

The hi-res models are really barking that the deformation band that cranks from parts of central and eastern Indiana into northwest Ohio, southeast Ohio, and southern Ontario during the day Wednesday will pack 1-2" per hour rates, with forecast soundings that support heavy snow with large flakes: The hi-res model consistency (and slight ramp up this run) of the deformation band placement and potential for over 6" with it has been relatively impressive, so we'll see if they're sniffing something out. It's worth noting that the synoptics behind this are nuts: Strong divergence in the left-exit quadrant of a jet streak ahead of a sharp negatively tilted shortwave, with a zone of strong warm air advection and low to mid-level frontogenesis beneath this to help squeeze out precipitation: Temperatures will be at or perhaps slightly above freezing for most of this snow so ratios won't be great, but heavy snow rates with large flakes are likely to occur in any mesoscale banding that develops within the broader deformation zone on Wednesday.

ILN largely did that due to concerns that snowing an inch an hour during the commute in Cincinnati and Dayton would be a mess as opposed to any confidence in reaching warning criteria snow totals. We'll see if it pays off, as if it trends north the thump of snow would occur north of Cincinnati. Not everyone would've issued that watch but I appreciate the reasoning. I didn't have the confidence to go with a wider watch for "impacts" into our CWA today, though some models certainly suggest it's not impossible that northern OH gets good snow even east of the low track. Front end thumps can be sneaky when the forcing is robust. I'm just excited that it looks to snow half decently for a wide area, especially on the front end.

Looks to start northwesterly later Wednesday night and gradually turn more due west by later Thursday. There should be a decent period Wednesday night into the first half or so of Thursday that the fetch favors your area.

Slightly less than 1" new overnight pushing me to slightly less than 6" for a storm total. Should clear the 6" mark with the lingering activity this morning. Wednesday's system looks like a snow to rain to wrap-around/LES situation. It'll be quite spread out but the snowbelt should get a pretty decent amount between Wednesday morning and Thursday night.

Measured 5” here at 5pm. We’ll see how much we add overnight. Not nearly as impactful as the blizzard, but comfortably the largest snow of the season so far.

Just measured 5" here...will the appetizer drop more than the main course for parts of Ohio?

Nice over-performer underway. Pretty much no issues with the marginal temps whatsoever! It came in quick and started sticking immediately, and should hold at or below freezing all afternoon with this steady snow. Already a tad over 3" here.

Cute little system tomorrow into tomorrow night...it's progressive, but there is respectable jet support and moisture to work with, and lapse rates in and above the DGZ may support some slantwise convection for a few hours in the afternoon. Basically, the synoptic snow won't last too long and it will be on either side of freezing, but there could be a period of 0.5-1" per hour rates and large flakes that roughly comes up along or just southeast of the I-71 corridor beginning late morning in southern OH and getting into northeast OH in the afternoon. There's a period late Sunday night into Monday morning where lingering synoptic moisture and "cool" northwest flow may allow for some lake enhancement to flare-up in the higher terrain southeast of the lake. I'm guessing it's a general 1-3" with the synoptic snow...maybe a localized 4" lollipop if heavier rates impact the higher terrain where it'll accumulate best...followed by a coating to 2" of lake enhancement/upslope in the favored areas. I'm actually kind of looking forward to it! Though, that's more of a product of me liking snow and not getting much of it this winter.

I suspect when advisories go away we'll see a bit more of a shift towards the "impact-based" paradigm, as when we only have the warning headline we may have to issue warnings when we think an event will be high impact, regardless of if it hits criteria. I'm curious to see if what becomes of advisories (the broad "plain language statements") are issued more like today's special weather statement, a soft headline that technically isn't a watch/warning product, which may also allow for more impact-based considerations. I've never loved having a set snow criteria for advisories, because as you said there are many other variables that can make a given amount of snow higher or lower impact. Am hoping for more synoptic winter storms to test out the tweaked WSSI this winter...this isn't a bad look if it's correct: I think the western ridge is legit, but we'll see if we get that subtle little -NAO that can help push the PV south over Hudson Bay, which would get all of the subforum cold enough for snow in late January.

Sure. I believe the agency as a whole is pushing to highlight the impacts of winter weather more...you see this with the recent emphasis on snow squalls, with products such as WSSI that give impacts for more than just total snowfall, and in training I recently went through regarding winter weather stuff I got the impression that they wanted impacts to be considered when issuing winter weather headlines. However, there are still a lot of different individual forecaster opinions along with varying philosophies from office to office. I can say from a verification standpoint, warnings are verified based on what gets put into Stormdata. Basically, warning level events or events resulting in fatalities are supposed to be entered. So if there's no warning out covering an event entered, the event was missed. If there is a warning out and no event gets entered into Stormdata, the warning is a false alarm. It makes it very hard for offices to "massage" the numbers (I don't necessarily mean cook the books so much as leaning a certain way if it's "close" based on what headlines were out...basically, less room to give yourself a buffer, which I don't think is the best when verifying a forecast). Some offices (including mine) are big on consistent Stormdata entries. If similar events have been written into Stormdata before they should continue to be entered...and vice versa if similar events haven't traditionally made Stormdata. We have a clause here that winter wx headlines can be issued based on impact, but when we verify it in Stormdata we need tangible evidence of "impact" from a given forecast zone...high standards to get included if amounts are sub-criteria...so, for us to go with the "impact based" headline (especially warnings...advisories can be a little looser) we need to be pretty sure that the aggravating factors will be significant. In the case of the December 23rd storm, at least in the CLE CWA, that was the case and everyone issued warnings.

The consistent light snow through last evening added another 1.5" here, so ended up a bit over 2" for the storm. It was a snow-filled day even if it wasn't all that exciting.

Measured 0.7” before 8am…some light accums since, probably over an inch total. It’s modest, but looks nice on the trees. Very fine flakes occasionally mixing with a bit of freezing drizzle at the moment.

Such a garbage system lol. At this point the highest terrain upslope areas may get 2-4"...maybe 5" near Chardon. The Chautauqua ridge in eastern Erie Co and Chautauqua Co may be able to get a bit more, but this is very unexciting back towards Ohio.

Yeah I suspect the SE ridge tries flexing at times into February given La Niña climo and also the MJO working through the Indian Ocean and western Pacific late this month into early Feb which also teleconnects to a SE ridge. So, the amount of blocking (especially over Alaska and western Canada) may say a lot about how much the gradient can be shoved south into the sub forum in the face of that. I do think there’s a window where we’re all pretty cold and the storm track shifts far enough south for most to be in the game around the end of this month, but we’ll see how long that can last.

I only post like 4 times a year gotta make it count

Getting much more encouraged about the upcoming stretch…all ensembles have a ridge bridge across the Arctic in the 10-15 day with cross polar flow into a deepening trough into the central US. Get this into the 6-10 and that’s a pretty high confidence significant cold signal for someone. There is disagreement over how far east the trough axis sets up, though I’d characterize this as an EPO cold shot and those often don’t make it into the eastern US as quickly as modeled so the GEFS may be a little more correct. Regardless of the exact evolution, the pattern will be turning much colder over most of the continent in late January and the gradient may setup somewhere across the sub. The GEFS could support a bigger cutter favoring the western sub, while the EPS and GEPS could support more of an Ohio Valley runner and clipper look. I feel confident we’ll have a legit period of wintry temperatures and increased snow potential the last week of January into the start of February, though still plenty of details (how cold, how much snow and where) to still sort out. From there, the question will be if we can maintain this favorable Pacific pattern with a ridge along the west coast into February or if we see things slide back west and allow the Southeast ridge to flex. We’ll also have to watch the stratospheric polar vortex for possible disruptions and the blocking on the above means near Scandinavia…both could lead to a more -NAO well down the road. So, lots of uncertainty the rest of the winter but we definitely have a window coming up…and we’ll go from there.

I'm actually not extremely enamored with this setup...think we'll get a quick 1-3" of synoptic snow Thursday night in north-central and northeast OH. There's probably a lull of sorts early Friday between the synoptic snow and lake enhancement that will ramp up into the morning and continue through most of the day, with that activity ending Friday evening. The lake enhanced snow may be moderate for a time on Friday, especially in the hills and especially with some sort of Lake Huron connection coming into play with winds going NNW to nearly due N. Even during the lake enhancement, I think we're looking at persistent light to moderate snow, as the instability is marginal and the synoptic lift is modest...the hills/upslope will definitely help, but it'll be hard to get 1"+/hour rates out of this. With the snow rather spread out, a struggle to get heavy rates, marginal ratios and warm ground, I don't feel this will be that exciting. That said, it will snow for a while and in the hills upslope/lake enhancement will add a good amount of QPF. I actually could see us needing to up amounts a bit farther west in the hills of the secondary snowbelt...someone in northern Geauga as well as Erie Co PA could squeeze out 8" with the upslope, but it'd be over a 24-30 hour period and I think most will probably be more in the 3-6" type range in the inland primary snowbelt. Guessing we'll need some advisories tonight or early tomorrow for it...kind of hoping we don't try pushing the warning button unless things look more impressive. The "negativity" aside, it will snow and accumulate and should look nice on the trees. More sustained cold may arrive towards the end of January...or at the least, a return of more frequent transient cold shots between the 50 degree days.

My guess is we go to a gradient pattern towards mid February with cold dumping into the Rockies and upper Midwest with a Southeast ridge. I think the Aleutian ridge will hold on for at least a few weeks which will keep dumping cold into North America, but usually that retrogrades after a while and ends up being a -PNA. I think we all have a crack end of January into early February…thereafter, odds probably tilt towards farther north and west being favored.

There were some nice bursts of borderline moderate snow last evening that quickly covered anything that wasn't paved, which was nice to see...even if the good snow lasted all of 20-30 minutes where I was! I'm getting a little more optimistic we get a crack at a better pattern for a couple of weeks around the end of Jan/beginning of Feb...but it's quite possible we don't get much of anything until then. Low odds we get a little wet snow with the low pressure going by this Friday if it tracks just right I guess, but I'm not optimistic. So, we'll see if that brief period around the end of this month can deliver. I'm sure we'll get some snow, but it's been scraps so far if you don't live up towards Erie or Buffalo (not that I'd want what Buffalo has had to go through this winter).

Occasional dustings of snow over the last 36 hours here that have struggled to stay on the ground for long during the daylight hours...running "event total" of 0.8" with less than 0.5" (so a T) on the ground at the moment. Racking it up this season.