OHweather

Was a little too far south for the lake effect last night...it snowed but was all pretty light. Ended up with 0.2". There are two interesting potentials for snow between Wednesday night and Friday morning (after potentially another round of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday)...the first one is lake effect or lake enhanced snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS and Euro both are interesting looking but in different ways...the GFS drops 850mb temps down to -10 to -12C (with lake temps of around 2C) and has a little shortwave and surface trough drop through in a WNW flow early Thursday morning. This is more of a pure lake effect look...the model despite marginal lake to 850mb temp differentials has pretty high equilibrium levels and good low-level moisture, along with a pretty well-aligned flow. I could see how that scenario produced a quick few inches with a band of snow in the snowbelt. The Euro is completely different and has more of a lake enhanced snow look, as it drops 850mb temps to around -10C as a band of wrap-around snow drops across the lake late Wednesday night into early Thursday with a NW flow. This scenario could produce several hours of moderate snow, particularly in the moderate terrain, and could produce up to a few inches. I don't really buy the Euro's scenario with that much wrap-around moisture, but either way I'd expect some accumulating snow Wednesday night into early Thursday, especially in the primary snowbelt. The next potential is with a clipper Thursday evening followed by some lake effect into Friday. The GFS is the most robust with this system, and the 12z run has a swath of a few inches of synoptic snow followed by a period of NNW flow lake effect later Thursday night into Friday morning. The Euro is a little weaker and farther south with the synoptic snow and just grazes Cleveland with maybe an inch or two but would likely still be close enough for a period of lake effect. The dynamics on the GFS are rather impressive and could support up to half a foot of synoptic snow Thursday evening in a narrow corridor followed by locally a few more inches of lake effect...my one hang up here is the pattern is rather progressive with some upper level confluence over New England trying to limit how much our clipper can amplify...basically we'd need everything to go perfectly with the clipper for something like the GFS shows, and we'll have to watch trends during the early part of the work-week. Either way, there are two separate snow threats in close proximity after midweek, so hopefully something can work out.

Now it's dropping below freezing with a light dusting of snow on the grass. It's been an amazing stretch of warmth for the last two years or so overall. A string of normal months would feel cold.

It will snow in March. Hopefully a warning criteria event or two. I've been getting a fair amount of thunder and lighting for almost the last two hours. From what I've gathered, here is the extensive record list from Friday from Ohio and immediately surrounding areas...Wow! The high temperature at Cleveland Hopkins reached 77 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 69 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 74 set on February 26, 2000. This also ties December 3, 1982 as the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter (the months of December, January, and February). The high temperature at Akron-Canton reached 76 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 68 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 72 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also ties December 3, 1982 as the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter. The temperature at Mansfield reached 74 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record high of 71 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature record in meteorologist winter of 73 degrees set on December 3, 1982. The temperature at Toledo reached 71 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 61 set in 2000. This also ties the previous all-time February record of 71 set on February 11, 1999 and on February 26, 2000. This also ties the highest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 71 degrees which has been previously hit four times. The temperature at Youngstown reached 75 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees set in 1967. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 73 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 73 degrees set on February 26, 2000. The temperature at Erie, PA reached 77 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 set in 1906. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 75 set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 75 degrees set on December 3, 1982 and on February 26, 2000. The temperature at New Philadelphia reached 77 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 66 degrees set in 1985. The temperature at Zainesville reached 76 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 70 set in 1961. The temperature at Columbus reached 78 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 72 set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 75 degrees set on February 26, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 76 degrees set on December 3, 1982. The temperature at Dayton reached 76 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 67 degrees last set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 73 degrees set on February 11, 1999 and February 25, 2000. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 75 degrees set on January 21, 1906. The temperature at Cincinnati reached 78 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 72 degrees set in 1930. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 76 set on February 10, 1932. This also breaks the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 77 set on January 24, 1943. The temperature at Parkersburg, WV reached 79 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 73 degrees set in 1961. This also breaks the previous all-time February record of 77 set four times…on February 8, 1900, February 11, 1932, February 25, 2000, and February 26, 2000. This also ties the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter of 79 degrees set on December 10, 1971. The temperature at Huntington, WV reached 80 degrees. This breaks the old daily record of 73 degrees set in 1930. This ties the all-time February record of 80 degrees set on February 25, 1930. This also ties the previous warmest temperature recorded in meteorological winter previously reached 2 times…on December 3, 1982, December 31, 1981, and February 25, 1930.

This next hourly report will give us a hint at the high that we normally hit between 3 and 4 this time of year. Based on the 74 at 1pm I don't think 77 is out of reach, but we'll need to be 75 or 76 at 2pm to have a shot at it.

As of 1pm CLE has tied their all time February record and CAK has broken theirs. Talk about shattering records.

CLE hit 67 today despite a pretty solid overcast all day. The all time February record of 74 is definitely in danger on Friday and if we have sun could be broken by a few degrees.

Running out of superlatives to describe the warmth. Another overperforming temp day today (except along the lake). Tomorrow should be near 60 inland again, well into the 60s Tuesday, and Wednesday could hit 70. Friday could still be well into the 70s if the front and rain hold off long enough. I do not remember anything like this winter in terms of incredible warm stretches, although I don't remember much before roughly 03-04. It will snow again at some point in March or April, but this is an extremely impressive torch pattern and we will probably have an extremely early green up this year. It wouldn't surprise me if the warmth this week is enough to get some of the earlier plants to start shooting out of the ground.

Friday could be 75 if the rain and front hold off long enough.

There are two reports from Chardon, one from a co-op observer and 12 hourly reports from a snow spotter. The 12 hourly reports add up to 6.3" (1.0, 2.5, 2.8). The 24 hourly reports from the co-op add up to 4.8" (1.0, 3.8). The co-op is almost always lower than the snow spotter, possibly because they just stick a ruler in every 24 hours which allows for compaction. Baindridge had close to 3" last night around 10:00 when I drove through so you having roughly 4" is plausible. After 0.3" Tuesday night I got 1.1" through 10:30pm yesterday and an additional 0.7" overnight. Unfortunately this will be the last snow for quite a while.

We'd need either a foot plus storm or two 8"+ storms to move that needle in my mind. Probably is less than likely.

This has really been an unexpectedly bad winter, and unless we pull off a late rally I may have to rate it lower than 2011-12. I would be very surprised to finish with less snow than last winter at CLE (and the heart of the snowbelt likely already has more than last winter or is approaching those totals), however until we actually pass last winter's snow total it's in the realm of possibility. Got 0.3" last night. Some very light snow pellets at the moment, but radar shows more moisture moving south across the lake, which should result in a bit of a flareup for a few hours. Parameters look a little bit better tonight on forecast soundings, with equilibrium heights rising to 8k feet for a time and very little wind shear to go along with enough moisture. The winds may lock in for several hours, so I suppose how I could see anyone who gets under the upper Lake Michigan/Lake Superior connection (probably eastern Cuyahoga County or western Geauga County) could see 3-4" this evening through early Thursday...everyone else (outside of NW PA where the Huron connection develops) will not see much snow tonight.

This upcoming LES does not have me impressed. Short fetch with marginal instability and pretty low inversion heights. Moisture is ok at times and the window is pretty long from tomorrow afternoon into Thursday afternoon so there could be just enough snow to plow. An upstream connection to the upper lakes could affect the Cleveland metro or Geauga County at times and a Huron connection should go into NW PA at times. I'm thinking 1-4" in the higher terrain of NE OH including the secondary Snowbelt...less than an inch closer to the lake...and 3-6" in the higher terrain of NW PA with less near the lake. This is a marginal advisory event for NW PA and sub-advisory for NE OH IMO. I struggle to see anyone in NW PA seeing 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours which is what is needed for a warning. Conversely I don't expect anyone in NE OH to see 4" in 12 hours or 6" in 24 hours for an advisory.

Got about an inch in half an hour at work with the squall. Some heavy snow showers have been more persistent at home so maybe I'll find a couple new inches there. had 1.2" with the synoptic snow yesterday evening and an additional 0.7" of lake effect this morning before I left.

You should have gotten 5 or 6" of synoptic on December 11...but it has largely been a synoptic snow wasteland this winter. I anticipate the month of March will come in snowier than normal but we will see how big or small the dent in the seasonal deficit is.

Looks like we will pull off an inch or two of synoptic snow this evening with the most falling inland. Wahoo! Minor LES event tomorrow with a NW flow but potent shortwave going by. Normally in this type of situation some snow showers make it in from Lake Michigan and can cause a nice burst in the secondary Snowbelt and primary Snowbelt. Instability and moisture are good for a few hours tomorrow but it's brief. I think most areas will see an inch or two of LES, but someone who gets hit by the Lake MI enhanced bands could see a few inches in the higher terrain. Then it all melts again Saturday and Sunday.

Just some flurries down here today...a couple 2-4" reports from Chardon into NW PA.

You certainly need non-lake effect snow to cash in...and there's been very little of that this winter unfortunately. Meanwhile places like Chesterland and Chardon may be sitting at 70" on the season and could see 100" if we see a few more good events.

2.7" this morning pushing me over 30" (about 32") on the year. Doesn't feel like it's been that much, though that is still probably abou but 10-15" below normal through January. I figure I average 75-80" per year out here. Would certainly be willing to meetup at some point.

Wow no kidding. Wonder if you would've cracked a foot or not. Advisory out for 3-6" with the clipper tonight into tomorrow. We will see what happens. Heaviest should be east of Cleveland and Akron.

Hopefully Trent was around for this...band looked to be locked right over him for a few hours and a couple of lightning strikes showed up around 5am too.

There were some warning signs that this could be a good event but it definitely blew my doors off when it came together as perfectly as it did. The last little bit of that big squall earlier and occasional snow showers since then have pushed me to 5.1" since yesterday afternoon and 6.9" since Thursday evening so far.

Awesome reports!! 4.5" here. It is snowing extremely hard under this squall but won't last much longer. What an event for Cuyahoga County.

Posting this for posterity. Wow, this is going to be an event places along the western lakeshore into Downtown will reference as a event that's great for that area. Band isn't moving and is intensifying over western Lake Erie. There could be a foot of snow in parts of northern Cuyahoga by morning.

This is turning into quite a good event for Cuyahoga, Lake, and Geauga Counties. They also added northern Trumbull to the warning.

Warning for Cuyahoga now