OHweather

Here's what I'm going with... The passage of a weak shortwave and surface trough after midnight into the very early morning hours on Thursday is expected to bring winds around from the W to NNW over Lake Erie. This should allow a brief burst of snow to push off the lake with EL heights of around 7k feet and steep lapse rates, good moisture, and some lift in the DGZ. A brief period of subsidence behind this wave, rapidly shifting winds, and a brief period of dry air/low inversion heights suggest any lake effect late tonight behind the first shortwave will be minimal. Think amounts will generally be 2” or less across the primary Snowbelt in NE OH/NW PA tonight and less than 1” in the Cleveland metro, with little farther south and west. Another little wave/vort max will pass mid-morning through the early afternoon on Thursday, bringing improved moisture and higher inversion heights along with some modest large scale lift. This, combined with a Lake Huron connection getting set up, should allow for a decent increase in snow Thursday morning and into the early afternoon. 850mb winds and RH from the GFS, NAM, and Euro all get the enhanced moisture from as far west as Cleveland east to near the OH/PA boarder in Ashtabula/western Erie County during this timeframe. This suggests that much of the primary Snowbelt in NE OH and some surrounding areas like eastern Cuyahoga County and perhaps northern Summit/Portage and likely Trumbull Counties will get in on this lake effect snow Thursday morning and early afternoon. EL heights rise to 7-8k feet with good moisture/lapse rates/lift in the DGZ, which is a moderate amount of instability and a suggestion of efficient snow. There is some directional shear below the inversion so any bands may be disorganized/transient, but upslope enhanced snow will likely occur for a few hours mid-morning into the afternoon. Rates of half an inch to an inch per hour will be broadly possible in the higher terrain, which may result in a 2-4” type accumulation in the favored areas through early afternoon in the higher terrain of the primary NE OH Snowbelt. Thinking 1-3” in NW PA Thursday morning/early afternoon in the higher terrain. Tough forecast in the secondary Snowbelt as the models show a wedge of dry air between upstream connections nosing into west and south of Cleveland. The models are initializing with a frozen lake upstream of the secondary Snowbelt. GOES16 imagery from this morning showed the gusty S-SW winds over the last day or so have pushed out and broken up a lot of that thin/newly formed ice, creating a lot of open water. Although the lack of an upstream connection will hurt, favorable snow growth and likely a lot more moisture flux than the models show could result in an inch or two of snow in the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt as well. Winds will slowly back a little bit (gain a more westerly component) Thursday afternoon, pushing the Huron fetch east of the east side of Cleveland and into more of NW PA. May see another inch or locally two of snow in the higher terrain of the primary Snowbelt in NE OH/NW PA Thursday afternoon between the morning burst and later burst. Another vort max will approach Thursday late afternoon and pass during the evening, resulting in another general increase in snow. By evening 850mb temps will drop to -23 to -24C, pushing the DGZ below the cloud layer and limiting snow growth. This will limit ratios and the efficiency of any snow accumulation. The NAM and GFS both have super-saturation with respect to ice at the top of the DGZ Thursday night, suggesting some snow growth, but the NAM especially tends to over-do surface dew points in lake effect situations, and any error means little good snow growth. Suspect ratios may hang up around 12-15:1 under any more coherent bands that could help push the DGZ a little higher through latent heat release, but that will still be down from earlier in the day (likely well over 20:1) and may not be realized in areas of lighter snow. The Huron connection into Ashtabula County and NW PA will likely see the heaviest snow, though with snow growth beginning to suffer rates will likely struggle to exceed half an inch to inch per hour. The rest of the higher terrain in the NE OH Snowbelt should also see an uptick, but again with an increasingly inefficient snow the rates will not be great. Have similar questions about the lack of snow in the secondary Snowbelt given some open water upstream of that higher terrain, and think the higher terrain in southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina and surrounding areas sees another little uptick late Thursday afternoon into the evening. With EL heights of near 8k feet at CLE and over 10k feet at ERI with instability becoming extreme and well-aligned winds, do think there could be some decent bursts of snow at times during the late afternoon and evening Thursday. Given lowering ratios, suspect the evening uptick will result in 2-3” new by midnight in the higher terrain of NW PA where the Huron band effects, 1-2” in the higher terrain of the primary NE OH Snowbelt west of the Lake Huron enhancement, and perhaps up to 1” in the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt though likely less for most. We lose some of the large scale lift the rest of Thursday night after late evening, but lake effect parameters don’t drop off much with extreme instability, OK but not great EL heights, decent moisture to 4-5k feet, and well-aligned winds. Winds do back a little bit more overnight Thursday night shifting the upstream enhancement more firmly into NW PA, but some upslope enhancement should allow mainly light snow to continue overnight in the higher terrain in NE OH and at least some light snow showers in the higher terrain south of CLE as well. Forecast soundings for CLE show considerably drier/colder low-levels than ERI, but given my belief there will be considerably more moisture flux east of the islands (and even some west) than modelled due to poor ice-cover initialization (and the fact that there is some moisture flux through ice, especially relatively new ice) I do not buy this. The air upstream of CLE is not anymore cold/dry than the air upstream of ERI, and given my belief the models are under-doing moisture flux upstream of CLE the soundings there may end up looking a bit more like ERI than the forecasts for CLE do. The models appear to have a faux convergence band into the eastern suburbs and Geauga County overnight due to a sharp temperature differential between ice/no ice north of Cleveland over the lake that I don’t think will be there. There may be some shoreline convergence that enhances snow a little bit into the secondary Snowbelt and perhaps Cuyahoga/northern Summit/southern Geauga given a flow around 290 to 300 degrees late Thursday night into Friday morning. Given poor snow growth though and a relatively short fetch/no upstream connections in this area, don’t think any of this snow in NE OH will result in more than an additional inch to locally 2” in the higher terrain between midnight-7am Friday. Better shot at around 2” or so in that timeframe in the higher terrain in NW PA where the moisture from Lake Huron allows for some better snow. The day Friday will probably be pretty dull. Expect general modest lake effect to continue with extreme instability and ok EL heights (pretty good at ERI) along with well-aligned winds, but with a dry airmass, short fetch, and poor snow growth only expecting 1 to locally 3” in the higher terrain in the NE OH primary Snowbelt, less than 1” in the secondary Snowbelt, and 2-3” in the higher terrain of NW PA where moisture from Lake Huron helps the cause some…maybe a local 4” in NW PA, but most likely less. One last pretty decent shortwave passes Friday night, bringing some large scale lift, increasing moisture depth some, and raising inversion heights a bit. Winds will also veer to a more NNW direction for a few hours behind it late Friday night. Expect a general increase in snow in the primary and secondary NE OH Snowbelts and also in NW PA downwind of Lake Huron for a good few hours Friday evening into the early overnight hours. Snow growth will still be poor, though if a stronger band develops it and ratios may locally improve. Extreme instability, EL heights rising to over 10k feet at CLE and ERI, and moisture depth increasing to 5-6k feet along with some lift from the shortwave should allow moderate snow to occur in the higher terrain, perhaps locally heavy downwind of Lake Huron. Some shoreline convergence may also direct a bit of a band into the secondary Snowbelt, on top of the Lake Huron enhancement into NW PA and general orographic lift snow elsewhere. The Huron band may briefly swing into Ashtabula County early Saturday morning, before everything shifts NE and inversion heights really lower on Saturday, finally winding down the snow during the afternoon. With poor snow growth not expecting more than 2-3” in the higher terrain of NE OH/NW PA Friday night into early Saturday from the uptick from the shortwave, expect for perhaps locally 4” or so if a good Huron enhanced band can develop over Ashtabula County or into NW PA. Adding up the period to period snowfall amounts does yield amounts potentially exceeding a foot in the heart of the NE Ohio Snowbelt and inland NW PA, with local amounts of up to 15 or 16” not impossible in NW PA. Amounts will be considerably less near the lakeshore. Given decent enhancement expected into eastern Cuyahoga County Thursday morning and enough terrain for orographic lift there through the rest of the event, think amounts of over half a foot will occur into eastern Cuyahoga. Similar story in some of the northern extremities of counties south of the Snowbelt. Will put 1-3” in for the secondary Snowbelt, though it’ll be apparent early on if there will be enough moisture flux for higher amounts there. If so, could see how it eventually adds up to around half a foot through Friday night in parts of northern Medina County.

Just looped GOES 16 since just before sunrise. Some holes in the high clouds early in the day allowed a quick glimpse of the ice. It appears the ice over the central basin east of the island moved NNE yesterday into today as the image NEOH posted suggested was starting to happen and broke up considerably. We could see the lake act like a pretty open lake into the Cleveland area and east side with a NW flow over the patchy ice.

I've become a bit more optimistic about this one actually...the NAM/GFS/Euro all appear to bring some moisture from Lake Huron west into the Cleveland metro from tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening before it begins shifting east...they bring the main connection into Ashtabula or western NW PA but like Saturday night have some moisture as far west as Cleveland. Instability profiles aren't great, but everything is favorable below 5k feet instability and moisture wise through Thursday evening. Despite low inversion heights, the models show good saturation of the DGZ through early Thursday evening before it gets too cold for snow growth. In addition, two little vort maxes move through between Thursday morning and evening, bringing a couple periods of enhanced upward motion to the region. Given good snow growth really helping the fluff factor I'm thinking 3-6" through Thursday evening in the higher terrain from eastern Cuyahoga County points east, with perhaps a little more if the actual Huron band can affect the higher terrain in parts of NW PA. Then tomorrow night through Friday night LES continues, but snow growth will be poor and moisture depth also not even to 5k feet. Think that where the Huron moisture goes (likely extreme NE OH and NW PA) can grind out up to 2-3" additional overnight Thursday night and then again on Friday. The Huron connection may maintain into NW PA Friday night enough for additional amounts. Thinking this could be a 4-8" type event for the higher terrain in NE OH and 6-12" in the higher terrain in Erie County and perhaps northern Crawford County in PA. I'll hopefully take a stab at a map this afternoon after work.

Despite it snowing all afternoon and into the evening half decently, didn't even squeak out a full inch of pixie dust. Through this evening totals across the Snowbelt ranged from 2 to as much as 7" (South Madison), and some spots probably added another inch or so tonight, so an advisory probably would've been good. We get some NW flow lake effect Wednesday night through at Friday. Should still have some open water left on that fetch, but parameters aren't as good as they can by and by Thursday afternoon through the remainder of the event it'll be too cold for good snow growth. My thought is maybe locations downwind of Lake Huron can marginally hit advisory amounts in the higher terrain(likely either Ashtabula or parts of NW PA) and see something like 5-8" over the course of 36 or so hours, with the second half of that being a slow low-ratio accumulation, with amounts of up to a few inches in the rest of the higher terrain in NE Ohio east of Cleveland. There may be enough juice for an inch or two in the higher terrain south of Cleveland into northern Medina, but with a short/icy fetch, mediocre parameters and poor snow growth not expecting much more in the secondary Snowbelt.

I have to imagine the odds of having the warmest years on record back to back are quite low...probably a combination of all the left-over heat from the very strong El Nino in 2015-16 and a generally warmer planet overall than when records began in the late 1800s. Pretty decent snow band has settled into a good chunk of Cuyahoga County, which is impressive since its fetch is entirely over ice. It's snowing good here with a visibility under half a mile, but flake size is less than stellar so it's not adding up too fast. Winds hardly move until mid-evening, but after 3 or 4pm we lose the modest large-scale lift from a weak vort max passing overhead and the thermodynamics degrade gradually, so the snow should start weakening some later this afternoon and then will lift northeast up the shore later this evening. We'll see if someone in Cuyahoga County can manage a few inches. Based on some obs it appears the rest of the Snowbelt is seeing some decent bands that may be getting overshot by the radar, Ashtabula and Erie have reported some decently low visibilities at times. Likely a similar situation with poor flake size keeping rates from getting out of hand in these areas, but hopefully someone can squeak out a 6" total somewhere.

Band looks like its sagging south as the winds turn. We'll see how far south it goes and if it holds together. Can see some moisture flux from northwest of Cleveland, we'll see if it's enough for snow into the metro area this afternoon. Was in Kirkland and got on I-90 at 306 in the heart of the band a few minutes ago and it's coming down, visibility near 1/8 of a mile. Thank God I'm not driving right now. Surprised CLE didn't go with an advisory for Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula.

I'm really glad yesterday's event did well IMBY for this reason. I will say, we had a number of minor to moderate events late in the frigid winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 when the lake was frozen, and a brief torch with rain and wind can really move some ice around, so we'll get more LES, but it's not quite the same without a fully loaded western basin.

Just some quick thoughts before I head out for the night... Winds will be WNW, however, am concerned the ice near the southern shore and also over the western basin extending into the central basin may allow the shoreline convergence to occur a little farther north closer to the remaining open water. Ice coverage over the western basin is now over 90% with a thickness of 6-12"+, which is thick enough to be more prohibitive of good heat/moisture flux. So, will cut off the snow farther northeast than I would for this type of flow with an open lake. Still, with some moisture flux and a good fetch from Lake Michigan aimed towards the Cleveland area, was nervous enough to include an inch or two for the Cleveland metro and expand the 2-4" a bit farther SW than the hi-res models suggest. With a well-aligned WNW flow from early Monday AM through the evening before the winds start backing and pushing the snow up the shoreline, will be a 12 or so hour window of good snow. Parameters are OK with EL heights near 8k feet and moderate instability. The airmass is quite dry but Lake Michigan pre-conditioning and reasonably light/well-aligned winds will make up for that a bit. The NAM shows super-saturation with respect to ice in the upper half of the very shallow dendritic growth zone and upward motion in the DGZ, so if the NAM doesn't bust too high with its dew points there should still be enough snow growth for decent ratios, though the airmass is quite cold and it's close, if dew points are lower than the NAM ratios may struggle outside of any stronger bnd. Given OK instability and a good WNW fetch without a ton of movement for around 12 hours, will go with 4-8" in the northern primary Snowbelt. There may be a convergence band possibly from NE Cuyahoga into southern Lake/northern Geauga/Ashtabula caused by the interface between mostly ice-covered and thicker ice and open water pushing the convergence a bit north of the shoreline. Where any more dominant bands develop over NE OH/NW PA will be where the best shot at closer to 8" will be. Think there will be a band that develops over the northern Snowbelt from Lake/Ashtabula/Erie Counties early Monday ahead of a vort max that then swings SW as winds go WNW by later morning. The band will likely lift NE Monday night then push over the lake by Tuesday. Could see a locally higher amount in Erie County as they'll have a longer window for snow through Monday night than NE OH. Happy New Year!

My 12 hourly measurement is 5.6"...I measured 5.6" between 7:15 and 10:45, including about 3.5" between 8:30 and 9:30. My storm total is up to 10", with 8.2" of LES in there. This will do just fine. Monthly total 27.8" which I'd imagine is above average for this area.

I've gotten over 5" since shortly before 7:30 when it started to really come down (and yes roughly 4" between 8:30 and 9:40). This is nuts. Visibility is less than 1/4 of a mile and it's raining down large dendrites. Hoping the band doesn't push to my south but it looks like it's about to. This is still fantastic either way.

As of about 8:30 I had gotten 1.5" from this burst in about 75 minutes, but it's probably coming down at around 2"/hour right now. Looks like it may maintain close to this intensity for another 2-3 hours before gradually weakening. Hi-res models suggest this general area may see some sort of snow into morning. We'll see what it adds up to. My 12 hour total was 2.6" pushing my storm total so far to 4.4"

Just started really coming down here. Wasn't much of an organized band, but a nice blob of heavy snow on the east side downwind of Lake Huron. Didn't expect it this far west, let's see if it lasts.

Murphy's Law I guess. Band is slow to move when it's to our north and races south past us when it finally budges. That surprised me a bit as well. I actually managed at least at inch out of the band, maybe an inch and a half, it was over me for a little over an hour and the snow was very efficient. The band has as expected become a bit less organized as it pushes south and the LES north of it isn't too intense right now. Lift and moisture increase late afternoon through mid evening as another vort max and trough push through. Given winds are only WNW now, I definitely expect another transient but intense band to form over the Cleveland area and primary Snowbelt later this afternoon and then swing south through the evening. I could see somewhere getting a quick 3-4" where the band initially develops for a couple hours then a quick inch or two as it pushes south. Decent lake effect may immediately develop behind the band for a brief period as good synoptic moisture lingers as the winds go NNW. Later this evening and through the overnight moisture does diminish but instability remains extreme and winds well-aligned, so snow should diminish outside of any lingering bands. A decent Huron connection still appears likely likely over Ashtabula County and possibly into eastern Lake/Geaga and western Erie Counties at times through Sunday. This could add at least several inches additional overnight tonight through Sunday to those areas, more if it stalls anywhere. Outside of that, the ice orientation and cutoff near Cleveland may allow some modest convergence into the east side later tonight Iater tonight into Sunday morning which may focus a secondary band into that area. That could be a secondary corridor to watch for a band with some additional accums overnight tonight into Sunday. The hi-res models appear to be under-doing moisture flux over the icier water so their QPF may be too low on the western edge of things.

1.8" so far. I can say this likely would've been a big event for the Cleveland area with a wide-open lake. We'll see what we can squeak out with the ice. Clouds are clearing blossoming over the ice so there's still some juice, hopefully enough. Also, nice pics from Erie. Luckily you've gotten to see the snow at work I guess.

I have mixed feelings about those products. Some offices have been doing them for a few years. Some offices (CLE included) just can't get them right. Right now their low end amount for Chardon is 11" and their high end amount is 13"...so there's a 80% chance that around a foot of lake effect will fall within a 2" range...not quite. Their probabilistic maps for the amounts are the same way with sharp drops from 100% to 0%...again not quite how it should look. And their forecast in this instance (and many other instances this winter) actually matches the 90th percentile...again, that shouldn't be the case. In Athens in January of 2016 (prior to "Jonas") a day out RLX had less than 1" as our low-end amount and like 20" as our high-end. When stuff like this happens I don't find these maps to be at all helpful to planners...not sure what goes into them and how much input the forecaster has, but other offices don't have these issues as frequently.

I hope there's enough juice. My story for this one is the central basin is still open and the ice out west isn't too thick yet...but it's not ideal. If we do get enough moisture flux off the lake, the winds going from WSW to NNW with a lot of instability and synoptic support should give many areas a shot at some accumulating LES, so hopefully, it works out. Obviously, the ice will expand and thicken a lot over the next 10 days, which will make it considerably more difficult to see good LES. Models are showing a nice W or WNW flow setup on Monday so I'm sure the Primary Snowbelt will cash in some more then.

Unfortunately, another snow event where I don't have time to do more than a text-only write-up...pretty interesting forecast yet again...this map is valid Friday-Sunday PM. More LES will likely continue through at least Monday and I'll work on that at some point. The lake will be even icier by then. Snow should push onshore into northeastern Ashtabula and Erie County near the lakeshore by around noon Friday as winds on the lake come around to west with WSW winds on land behind the passage of a vort max and surface trough/possible meso-low over the lake. This general wind pattern with W winds over the lake and WSW winds on land focusing convergence near the coast in Erie, Ashtabula, and possibly NE Lake Counties will persist all of Friday afternoon and into the early evening before winds shift more SWrly and push the convergence out over the lake. This will still be a good 7 or 8 hours of potential banding near the lakeshore in eastern Ashtabula and Erie Counties (possibly brushing NE Lake and western Ashtabula County) Friday afternoon into the evening. Thermodynamics during the afternoon will be decently supportive with moderate instability, EL heights of 10-11k feet, and good moisture to around 7k feet including in the DGZ. EL heights drop off some towards evening due to mid-level warm air advection ahead of the incoming clipper. With the decent thermodynamics/moisture, strong convergence near the shore, weak shear in the mixed layer, and near-optimal snow growth have to think snow rates of around 2" per hour will accompany the heart of the snow band Friday afternoon and early evening. The band will mainly hug the shore and not move a ton, and may produce 6-12" of snow near the lake in Erie County and also northeast Asthabula County, dropping off quickly farther inland. There may be an inch or two as far southwest as northeastern Lake County. The clipper snow doesn't look extremely impressive in N OH Friday evening and Friday night. There will be some lift in the form of upper-level divergence evident at 500mb (which is above the level of non-divergence in winter), some mid-level positive vorticity advection, and weak isentropic lift/warm-air advection evident at times at 700mb and 850mb. This will generally cause a decently long period where light snow will be possible. Forecast soundings currently suggest that the strongest lift may be above the DGZ during the synoptic snow keeping ratios somewhat in check, and the sources for lift aren't extremely strong, so I tend to think amounts with the clipper in northern OH/NW PA will only be 1-2". There may be pixie dust or small flakes falling for a while which will be nice, but they won't add up a ton. Winds will come back around to the W or WNW over the lake by Saturday morning which will bring lake effect back into the picture. Lingering synoptic moisture to over 10k feet through most of the morning and outstanding thermodynamics with EL heights of 10-12k feet (higher at ERI) and steep lapse rates to go along with convergence near the shoreline will support an intense lake effect snow band. In addition, a potent vort max will pass overhead late morning and early afternoon, adding some large-scale lift. Given nearly optimal snow growth, rates of 2 to locally 4” per hour will be possible in the heart of the band. Band placement will be important, as some areas may see a lot of snow quickly in the Saturday morning/early afternoon timeframe. To start the day, winds will be W over the lake and WSW on land…a familiar pattern…which will likely drive the band onshore over northeastern Ashtabula County and the Erie County lakeshore. It may be snowing in parts of Lake County but likely won’t be that heavy at this juncture. Winds will continue to slowly gain a more northerly component and by mid-morning are expected to be WNW over the lake and slightly south of due west of land. With an approaching vort max (which seems to tend to keep winds more “backed” or southerly around the lake) and shoreline convergence, don’t think the band will push inland too fast, but may get into far NE Cuyahoga and northern Geauga by mid-morning, with heavier snow spreading into Lake County and the rest of northern Asthabula County. Snow may start spreading a bit farther inland over Erie County by mid-morning. The vort max passes around noon which should nudge the surface trough farther south as the winds likely gain more of a northerly component behind the vort max. This should allow the band to gradually resume a more southward drift during the early afternoon. I don’t expect the band to get too far south, as the vort max really only grazes the region with no big height falls with it, so there shouldn’t be a huge push of northerly winds Saturday afternoon…but likely enough to get the band into a good chunk of Cuyahoga County (possibly into the central part of the county) and more inland portions of the Snowbelt. The thermodynamic environment will remain very favorable and with good snow growth to go along with some pre-seeding from Lake Michigan, though the shoreline induced convergence will likely weaken some and there will be a brief period of sinking motion during the early to mid-afternoon behind the vort max. This should cause the band to become less organized and weaken a bit, though it probably won’t completely go away. Ice cover over the western basin is over 80% which will limit moisture flux some, however, the ice is still not that thick and still has some cracks, which typically still allows a half decent moisture flux. Given the strong instability and high EL heights, I think that while the ice will somewhat limit the band intensity over Lorain and Cuyahoga Counties where the fetch of open water is much diminished that it won’t completely prohibit some decently intense snow. Another potent vort max and surface trough (with much colder air behind it) approaches late afternoon and early evening and passes around mid-evening Saturday. These features tend to back surface winds a bit more than modelled, which suggests winds may be around 280 degrees as this vort max and trough approach. The lift and moisture ahead of the vort max and likely upstream moisture from Lake Michigan, along with increasing convergence near the shoreline should allow a decent band to re-develop. This band will likely develop across northern Lorain County and northern/central Cuyahoga County east into southern Lake County and Geauga County and swing south by mid-evening behind the vort max as winds then quickly go more NNW. Though there may not be an organized convergence band over NW PA, Lake Huron moisture and increased lift should still result in a nice burst of snow. Instability will be extreme by this point with ample moisture/good snow growth remaining in place, so the band could produce a quick few inches over parts of the Cleveland metro and into the Snowbelt, likely a bit inland form the lake, as well as in parts of NW PA especially in the higher terrain. A brief period of good moisture behind the winds turning to the NNW may briefly allow upslope snow to continue through late evening, though colder air will start hurting snow growth. Given the stronger vort max/surface trough passage and cold push of air, the snow band could detatch from the lake and push inland as a strong snow squall that drops a quick 1-2” of snow. Lake Michigan moisture may contribute to a risk of squalls well west of the NE Ohio Snowbelt as well Saturday evening as the trough moves through. Behind the trough the thermodynamics remain impressive with EL heights over 10-11k feet and extreme instability over the lake, but the airmass dries considerably for the remainder of Saturday night and through Sunday night. This will likely limit snow outside of a Lake Huron connection. With well-aligned winds, extreme instability, and this connection going over the open part of our lake, it may produce heavy snow. NAM soundings show the DGZ remaining in the clouds in the Huron connection through Sunday supporting high ratios. Models tend to bring these connections too far west, but with a NNW flow think it should get into at least Asthabula County for a decent period of time Saturday night through much of Sunday and may briefly drift into Geauga/Lake Counties late Saturday night when winds have their strongest northerly component. Winds back Sunday night which should push the connection east. Given the winds don’t move a ton, are well aligned, and instability is extreme, this Huron connection may drop a general 3-6” over far eastern Lake/Geauga, Asthabula, and western Erie/Crawford Counties, with locally much higher amounts possible if the band stalls for any decent length of time. With extreme instability and wind fields getting a bit light late Saturday night into Sunday, meso-low formation may be possible with the band which could move it around at times and also bring locally enhanced snow rates. Outside of the Huron connection, a short fetch, limited moisture hurting snow growth, but extreme instability and fairly light/well-aligned winds may allow modest snow showers to continue in the higher terrain as far west as the secondary Snowbelt. This may add a local inch or two after midnight Saturday night through Sunday in the higher terrain west of the Lake Huron connection. For total amounts, think there’s ample opportunity for snow for 12”+ along the lakeshore in northeast Ashtabula County and Erie County, PA. Given a couple shots at banding, local amounts of 18-24” seem doable in Erie County within 10 miles of the lake. Elsewhere, expect the rest of the core Snowbelt (parts of the eastern suburbs, inland Lake, northern Geauga, inland Ashtabula, inland Erie and northern Crawford) to see a general 6-12” of snow given banding likely getting in off and on Saturday mid-morning through evening, with some light upslope enhanced snow then continuing through Sunday. Wherever the Huron band sets up, the potential for over a foot will exist. Farther west/south, given 1-2” of clipper snow, potential squalls enhanced by moisture from Lake Michigan and the vort maxes, and likely a squall pushing south off of Lake Erie Saturday evening, think most areas can see over 4”…so will go 4-7” for much of the Cleveland and Akron metro down to Youngstown. Given how unstable the airmass is before adding in the lakes, good snow ratios, sources of synoptic lift, and then moisture from the lakes, I have to think it’ll be a snowy Saturday and Saturday evening at times in these areas. The moisture from Lake Michigan may also get wrung out in the central highlands at times adding some modest additional accums there on top of 1-3” of clipper snow.

It looks like two little shots of synoptic snow over the next 48 hours...an inch or less tonight and perhaps an inch or two Friday night. As for the lake effect it'll be a decent but not outstanding W to WSW flow setup through Saturday morning favoring the lakeshore. The watch for over a foot in northern Erie County is reasonable, I don't think it'll get into southern Erie County much. By Saturday afternoon through Sunday winds turn to NW and then NNE. Moisture is diminishing by then and winds will be shifting, so think it'll be a minor LES event for those of us farther SW and inland. Depending on how the Lake Huron band behaves maybe someone gets a few inches, but most will get another light token amount. There may be more WNW to NNW flow after midweek which could support more LES. We will have to see what the ice looks like. Have to think the western basin will be getting pretty thick by then and not have a strong heat/moisture flux, but the central basin may still have some juice. What we need is one week of a lot of warmth, rain, and SW wind to force that ice lose! Unfortunately that isn't coming for at least 2 weeks.

2.1" of LES last night for a total of 3.5" of LES

I'm thinking many areas will get into the forecast ranges from yesterday. Not really exciting though but getting there. Was a general 1-5" through this morning from the east side into Geauga County, and the bands been moderate this afternoon into NE Cuyahoga, southern Lake, and northern/west-central Geauga and likely has added 1-3" in those areas. Another vort max passes through early to mid evening which should result in a minor uptick and also send the snow farther south. With light winds over the lake going NNW tonight expect convergence to focus at least snow showers within 10-15 miles of the lake most of the night from Lorain County points east, with potentially moderate snow from a Lake Huron connection into Erie or Ashtabula Counties. With light winds and very cold air on land still think there's some risk for a meso-low perhaps over the central basin that could graze the coast with heavier snow. All in all a real slow burn but much of the east side points east will end up with at least a few inches from last night through tomorrow morning, with locally probably upwards of 10" in northern Geauga County where they had 4-5" through this morning and are under decent snow now.

The 0z models last night hinted at this happening with the winds going more NW this evening. So we may continue to see a semi-coherent band through the afternoon, shouldn't lift too much farther north. Somehow Chardon got 5" last night, some spots may see a few more inches through tonight as light snow may continue within 10-15 miles of the lake much of the night. It was snowing half decently here all morning but with poor flake size and I got another half inch give or take. I may hit 2-3" and can see spots just a bit north of me seeing a 5 or 6" total considering Shaker already has 2" and should continue to see more snow for quite a while.

I'm not sure what we have to do for an event to not completely fall apart. The band was reasonably intense as it approached the downtown lakeshore then broke up/weakened quickly. I suppose the good news is it should snow very lightly most of the day. Around an inch here.

This is a pretty interesting/tough forecast for the remainder of this LES event through Wednesday night... Indications are the band (which the heart of is actually north of Erie at the moment) will reach its farther north point by 7-8pm, and then begin sinking back south as a weak surface trough evident over SE MI pushes east this evening and causes winds over the lake to shift from SW to more west. This should allow convergence to increase from near Euclid up the shoreline and allow decent snow to develop up the shoreline in NE Ohio by mid to late evening. As winds on the lake continue to gradually veer to more WNW after midnight, the snow will likely push inland into more of NE Cuyahoga and northern Geauga County. Given WNW to almost NW winds over the lake I have to imagine it will push inland over Erie County as well. The band will likely stall or really slow down for several hours after midnight or 1am, especially across the eastern Cleveland metro. This is due to the winds on the lake not moving much, possibly in response to the mid-level shortwave approaching/moving overhead, and due to the shape of the shoreline near Cleveland likely focusing shoreline convergence in that area for several hours. The hi-res models have a known bias (that has been on display constantly this event) to underdo shoreline convergence and push bands inland too quickly. Given where the models place the band, the expected wind direction, and shape of the shoreline, my guess is it will lay near the western lakeshore (perhaps nipping land at times very close to the lake west of Cleveland) and then move inland near or just slightly NE of downtown and then push ESE through the eastern suburbs towards Chesterland and South Russel. The NAM and RAP both have a crosshair signature for several hours late tonight (strong lift in the DGZ and decent RH in the upper half or so of the DGZ), which along with moderate lake-induced instability and EL heights of 9-10k feet suggests the band will produce heavy snow with rates of 1-2" per hour. Given it may move little for several hours, the potential for several inches of snow exists in the eastern suburbs into northwestern or west-central Geauga County. With some large scale lift from the shortwave passage think the higher terrain in the rest of the northern Snowbelt will hang on to snow showers in this time, but nothing too organized or heavy. If this band pans out could see some spots get near 8" by morning under the band in the eastern suburbs. The shortwave finally passes Wednesday morning, resulting in some sinking motion and winds veering even more to NW over the lake. As temps on land warm the lake-aggregate trough and shoreline convergence should weaken, causing the band to swing southwest and become less organized. The band will likely lose its lake Michigan connection Wednesday afternoon. Even so, moderate to borderline extreme instability may result in snow showers continuing from Lorain County points east, likely heaviest a bit inland given no dominant band or shoreline convergence. These may result in additional light accumulations late Wednesday morning through the afternoon. The combination of a cold and somewhat drier airmass may limit snow growth late Wednesday morning and beyond, possibly limiting ratios with any snow showers that persist, so I suspect amounts after about 10am Wednesday through the rest of the day will be reasonably under control. I still don't trust Wednesday night not to produce some additional accumulations. With winds going NW to even NNW a Lake Huron band may set up over NW PA and produce a couple inches or so. As temps drop on land convergence will increase along the rest of the shoreline. With winds going very light after midnight, some "tea kettle" snow may result with convergence near the shore just spilling inland, possibly dropping accumulating snow near the shore. This could occur as far west as Lorain County. The light winds and extreme temp differential between land and water may support meso-low formation too, which could also brush the shore with some accumulating snow. Any lingering snow should end Thursday morning. For additional accums, given the band gradually progressing south tonight think a general 4"+ is doable over most of the northern Snowbelt. I kept amounts at 4-8" over the eastern suburbs into western Geauga County, though I can't rule out a higher amount if the band after midnight into early Wednesday remains stationary enough. A few mile bust in band location results in a lot of population seeing different amounts, so that's a sensitive forecast which also factored into my decision not to pin down a 6-12" area. Think the period of snow along the shore tonight along with the potential for tea kettle lake effect Wednesday night supports 4"+ additional snow even along the coast. With the band currently affecting extreme NE Ashtabula County and coastal Erie County, along with a potential for a Huron connection early tomorrow night and tea kettle snow after midnight that 6-12" (locally more) is doable in those areas. The inland penetration of snow in NW PA is tough, but think once the band swings south later tonight with a quick accumulation that enough opportunities for snow showers (especially if some Huron moisture is involved) exists for at least a few to several inches of total additional accumulation in inland Erie County possibly clipping northern Crawford County.

It's a shame we don't have radar for Erie. This has been an incredible event for them. The winds on land are just perfectly parallel to the shore from Ashtabula to Erie, so though the winds over the lake have been moving a good bit over the last 30 hours the band just hasn't moved from the shore there. Perfect setup. It did finally push inland briefly earlier today but is back to pounding that area again. The obs are extremely impressive, with hours on end of quarter mile or lower visibility. I do agree that the earlier month snow totals don't seem right. Either the depth or snowfall is wrong. There are a few days where there's a seemingly impossible snow depth change compared to the amount of new snow recorded. I'm going to look over the LES for northern OH one more time here over the next little bit and see if I have any positive thoughts or not.

I do agree with your concerns about the band struggling to push inland. I do think it moves onshore over much of Cuyahoga County may but only affect the northern half of the county into northern Geauga. Most models push it farther south sooner or later but that is probably overdone. As for the ice I was just looking at GOES 16 and you can definitely see some has developed. Relatively thin ice still has a decent heat/moisture flux so I'm actually not that worried about it for the next day or so...you can see some clouds forming over the ice currently and feeding into the band...but it will become a bigger deterrent as it thickens and expands over the next week, which is unfortunate because we've gotten very little lake effect this season locally.