OHweather

Yeah it looks to be a bit. Go figure, the precip is pulling away an hour or two faster than modeled though. There's that nice band near Toledo that the hi-res NAM brings through Cleveland around noon, so perhaps we add another half inch or inch on top of where we're at now. The airmass is unstable in the low levels and another shortwave goes by this evening. Even tho moisture flux is quite limited by the ice now, between the lift from the shortwave, unstable low levels, moisture from Lake Michigan and limited moisture from Lake Erie it wouldn't surprise me if we saw some minor lake effect tonight. It'll have a lot more fluff than this morning's snow so it could fluff out enough to accumulate a bit in some areas. There's that weird overrunning event late Thursday night-Friday night. Best looks to be to our west/northwest but some models tease maybe a 1-3" or so snow for the northernmost row or two of counties on Friday in OH. Also another potential system Sunday-Monday...not huge by perhaps another 1-4" synoptic snow potential as it looks. We are adding up the snow. I'll add up my spread sheets sooner or later but I'm coming up on 65" for the season I'd imagine. If late February and March don't suck 90" seems doable for me which I'd imagine is at least 10" above normal.

It's definitely been borderline ripping here. No complaints. Sharp cutoff, Westlake maybe got an inch judging by radar.

Yeah the screw hole has me worried as it will be somewhere near Cleveland. As it stands, a few hours of moderate, dense snow falling near rush hour could be a high impact 2-3" for us, but if that hole takes longer to fill in it could cut that in half. And I really don't have a gut feeling on whether it will or not.

It's a gap between lift from the northern stream shortwave and southern stream shortwave since they aren't really phased. It's definitely annoying if it verifies like that. Still possible the storm intensifies a bit quicker than modeled and fills it in faster.

A little over 2" here last night, still some fluffy/light snow falling at times right now. And the hits keep on coming...

I was initially concerned the best banding may go a bit to our north, but looking like it may be right across the Cleveland area...it should slide ENE once it gets into Ohio. We will see if there's enough banding left to help ratios out...I think they'll be better than 10:1, but by how much is the question. Also thinking the potential is increased a bit for some decent snow showers/possibly squalls along the front during the pre-dawn hours...with some low-level instability showing up on the models and a nice accompanying vort max along the front. All in all, thinking we look good for 2-3" tonight...if there's still enough banding for moderate rates and higher ratios could see a bit more, but I'm on the fence about it. If we keep racking up these 2-3" snows it eventually adds up. Pretty good dynamics with the Wednesday storm, so if the shortwaves interact properly (and don't just shear out the southern stream wave) that could be a positive trender in the last minute. At the moment thinking 2-4" of a wetter snow for that one.

Perhaps I over measured a bit, but had 0.3" yesterday morning and 3.8" last night. Had a few hours of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow. Should be a general 1-2" snow tonight, but a narrow band of moderate high-ratio snow may survive this far to the east and drop a narrow corridor (a county or two wide) of 3-4" of fluffy snow near Cleveland.

1.7" here. Had a nice band drop an inch in less than an hour a little after midnight but it looks like that was about it.

A bit more optimistic for the LES in NE OH tonight. Should be a relative burst for a few hours this evening into the overnight ahead of the shortwave with upstream moisture helping and good ratios. It looks like the Superior-Michigan connection may lock into the east side for a few hours then into the morning before weakening and drifting east into the afternoon. Ratios will lower late tonight into Friday due to the cold. Thinking given a nice high ratio burst ahead of the shortwave and an upstream connected band lingering into morning several inches could fall in the high terrain from eastern Cuyahoga County points east. Will go a general 2-5" higher terrain eastern Cuyahoga, southern Lake, much of Geauga, inland Ashtabula, perhaps grazing NE Summit and northern Portage, and interior Erie and northern Crawford County. It may be worth an advisory if a band lingers on the east side during rush hour. Think the best upstream connection stays in NE OH so will just go 2-5" interior NW PA. Also thinking 1-3" for the secondary Snowbelt down into Medina, Summit, Portage, Trumbull and northern Mahoning with a NW flow.

I'll update the above list after work with additional snow from yesterday...mainly in Ashtabula County. Ok LES setup tomorrow night into Friday. Well aligned NW flow with good thermodynamics for high ratio snows. EL heights up to 7-8k feet and decent moisture up to the inversion with lake to 850mb differentials of better than 20C. Short fetch and could be a deeper layer of instability so I doubt we see a huge snow, but given the possible fluff factor I could see some areas seeing a few inches in the higher terrain. A potential Superior-Michigan connection into the high terrain of NW PA may be enough for some areas to see 4-8" over the course of 24 hours...I'm thinking a 2-4" snow in NE OH in the higher terrain and less elsewhere through Friday...then a few synoptic threats Saturday through next week.

Here's my compilation of totals from the PNSs...not quite an exhaustive list but pretty close.. Ashtabula County: Jefferson: 11.5" Lenox: 11.0" Dorset 1 east: 10.3" Monroe Township: 9.0" Geneva 7 south: 7.0" Conneaut: 5.5" Andover: 5.5" Geneva: 5.0" North Kingsville: 3.5" Ashland County: Ashland: 1.0" Crawford County: Gallion: 2.0" Cuyahoga County: North Royalton: 8.3" Chagrin Falls: 8.0" Beachwood: 8.0" Bedford Heights: 7.1" Solon: 6.0" Strongsville 1 southeast: 6.0" Euclid: 4.0" Cleveland-West Park: 4.0" Westlake: 3.0" Erie County: Wakeman 4 north-northeast: 3.2" Berlin Heights: 2.6" Huron: 2.0" Castalia 1 northeast: 2.0" Geauga County: Chardon 2 north: 8.2" Chardon: 7.3" Montville: 6.5" Aquilla 3 east: 6.0" Madison 4 south-southeast: 6.0" South Madison: 5.0" Burton: 4.0" Hancock County: Findlay: 0.7" Huron County: New London 3 northwest: 4.3" Bellevue: 3.5" Knox County: Fredericktown 4 north-northwest: 1.0" Lake County: Kirtland 4 southwest: 5.1" Madison Village: 4.8" Madison-On-The-Lake: 4.5" Wickliffe 1 east-northeast: 3.8" Mentor: 3.7" Perry Township: 3.5" Lorain County: Oberlin 1 south: 6.0" Elyria: 3.6" Lorain 3 south: 3.4" Sheffield Lake: 2.0" Lucas County: Berkey 3 south: 2.1" Toledo Express Airport: 1.3" Mahoning County: Canfield: 3.5" Washingtonville 4 north-northwest: 3.0" Boardman: 2.0" Austintown: 1.0" Medina County: Hinckley: 6.5" Montrose-Ghent 4 west-northwest: 5.5" Homerville: 3.5" Brunswick: 3.1" Lodi: 1.8" Ottawa County: Elmore 5 east: 2.2" Port Clinton 2 west: 1.7" Portage County: Mantua: 5.5" Sugar Bush Knolls: 4.2" Hiram: 3.5" Kent: 3.2" Ravenna: 3.0" Richland County: Lexington: 1.5" Mansfield 7 northeast: 1.0" Mansfield: 1.0" Stark County: Alliance: 2.0" Jackson Twp: 1.8" East Canton 1.5" Waynesburg: 1.3" Magnolia: 1.2" Summit County: Sagamore Hills: 9.8" Macedonia 3 south-southwest: 6.6" Bath Twp: 3.9" Twinsburg: 3.9" Cuyahoga Falls 1 east-southeast: 3.8" Fairlawn: 3.6" Cuyahoga Falls: 3.5" Akron-West Side: 3.4" Monroe Falls: 3.4" Tallmadge: 2.7" Akron 1 west: 2.5" Green: 2.1" Trumbull County: Newton Falls: 3.1" Mosquito Creek Lake: 1.8" Wayne County: Dalton: 2.0" Wooster: 1.0" Wood County: Bowling Green 2 northwest: 0.8" .

7.1" here in Bedford Heights, very nice storm. It's these kinds of storms that make our winters fun...not the big events 5 days out that slowly fall apart as we get closer.

Posted it in the main thread, but I think the higher terrain from Cuyahoga County east is good for 3-6" through morning...maybe a locally higher amount depending on how quickly ratios come up during the lake enhanced phase this evening into tonight. Nice little event.

Much more impressive band from Lake Huron than I expected. It's too bad the winds are gradually shifting because I'm sure it's dropping at least 2"/hour rates.

1.5" so far. Bit of a sucker hole since 7pm or so.

I think it'll become more organized this evening, but by then will be slowly pulling east. According to the HRRR maybe I shouldn't have given up this morning!

A few fine flakes have made it down at times, but mainly ZR and IP here so far. Untreated pavement has frozen over and the sleet is beginning to accumulate.

This was a spectacular fail of a storm. Just amazing. And it's adding up in recent years. The seasonal snowfall isn't terrible, though quite unspectacular outside of the northern Snowbelt in terms of larger events.

Think we have sleet until at least 3-4pm. Dual pole shows the changeover near Sandusky. We may get a half inch or inch of sleet.

The issue I'm seeing is the next northern stream shortwave is diving in from the NW just a little too fast. The low is developing good over the south, but that northern piece coming in gives it that last second nudge east, so we're on the outside looking in on the area of better snow tonight. It also probably jumps to the coast a little faster. EDIT: Didn't see your post from about 45 minutes ago. Yeah, it's the northern stream causing the storm to turn east last second and preventing a NW shift. Storm is developing good over the south so I think we woud've been hit really good if the northern stream shortwave was even a few hours slower. Ugh.

This clearly isn't going to work out. We'll see a changeover and messy travel but not more than a few inches of snow.

Posted this in the main thread, will post it here too. Went NW of the Euro as obs appear to suggest there is potential for some last minute NW bump, but I'm still not confident as a couple pieces of hi-res guidance (the ARW and HRRRx in particular) have a lot more snow, but the Euro/Canadian are both like 50-75 miles SE of where I have the swath of heaviest snow. Lake enhancement looks minor, and lake effect on Saturday also looks minor. Could that boost totals by an inch or two somewhere, sure, but thermals don't look good for LES with a very low inversion during the synoptic snow and even on Saturday as the storm pulls away.

We may have a last second bump NW as the storm actually develops. Everyone gets a good period of sleet tomorrow afternoon which may wreck the roads and have a big impact even if the snow underwhelms. For snow/sleet totals thinking 3-6" for Cleveland and 6-9" a little farther south towards Akron/Youngstown, but that's not a final forecast. When I make my final call maps this afternoon I'll post them, still don't have a great feel/handle for this storm. Thermals don't look great for LES behind the storm but maybe it adds an inch or two locally.

0.5" yesterday and just a minimal dusting last night. Event total of 2.9" so far. It looks like ice has solidified a good bit over the central basin, which along with the cold/dry airmass is likely limiting things outside of the moisture downwind of Lake Huron.

Was pleasantly surprised with amounts last night...2.3" here and probably a couple tenths since I measured. Flake size is already small which is unfortunate. Still hints we'll see an uptick this afternoon and evening with a little shortwave and perhaps some Huron moisture, so hopefully that pans out. Nice upstream connected band way west of Cleveland, probably producing the heaviest snow in NE OH right now.