OHweather

We got an 8.5” report from near Brecksville where that heavy band in the secondary Snowbelt sat for a while yesterday afternoon. That’s an oof

We got about an inch of fluff out here in Reminderville this evening on top of half an inch to an inch while I was at work. Very much feels like a Cleveland winter the last couple of weeks with a big synoptic snow plus a few LES events that have been tough to forecast but have kept us on our toes. Drove out to the Independence / Seven Hills area around 7 PM and drove through the same band that was still extending from Lake Huron down the 271 corridor into the Garfield Hts / Mayfield Hts area (and actually started snowing as far east as 91 and 422 in Solon). It was absolutely dumping near the 271/480/422 interchange. May have been 2" per hour rates. 1/8th mile visibility and just pouring dendrites. Highways were in rough shape. Got a good inch or so in the Seven Hills / Independence area of fluff in the few hours I was there, looks like what was left of that band drifted into that area. A cold front followed by some LES and perhaps a weak clipper look on tap Saturday night through Sunday night...could be a few inches where LES occurs with a W-ish wind. Another clipper Monday or Monday night is possible (GFS still has some southern stream interaction and the timing would be more like Tuesday, but today's Canadian and Euro just have the clipper Monday evening-ish which is what I leaned towards a bit in the forecast today) followed by more cold weather and some (likely modest) lake effect with a NW flow off the icy lake through Wednesday next week. Don't see any significant snows out of all of this but it will be cold with flakes in the air at times over the next several days.

This fluffy lake effect again over-performed a bit today. Light flow, connection to Huron, and really good snow growth resulting in perfect dendrites all helping. Wasn't totally shocked at accumulating snow, but I think what pushed things over the edge to an advisory was the consistent flare-up in the secondary Snowbelt as the main Huron band started approaching from the east. Those bursts in southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina and Summit weren't really modeled at all but were ripping. We had gotten a couple of reports of a quick 2" and any better bursts were easily dropping visibility to a quarter to half mile, covering highways and starting to cause accidents. We were on our third or forth special weather statement of the day and it was obvious the snow would impact the evening commute and the lead felt an advisory would be more pragmatic than re-issuing SPS's every hour for the same general areas. We'll see how many 4"+ reports there are...it would be pretty localized...but definitely a squally day. The commute across 480 and 422 about an hour ago from Brooklyn Hts to Reminderville was certainly slow. The lake effect should gradually push west and eventually weaken overnight as the ridge moves overhead and the flow goes more northeast...shear will also increase some. Think amounts this tonight are 1 to locally 3" additional, with the bulk occurring over the next few hours with perhaps some decent bursts occurring where the Huron band goes overnight.

Yeah the more organized bands are producing decent bursts that are accumulating and covering roads. Really nice dendrites too. The office near 77 and 480 has had a few borderline moderate bursts with radar showing heavier in the hills just to our south.

Very much need the PNA to drop and the core of the cold to shift west for those outside of the southern/easternmost fringes of the sub-forum to have a shot at anything other than clippers. That seems like it will happen into February...but given how this winter has gone, watch it go from too warm to too cutter-y in 3 days. The current pattern very much is coming in on the colder side of the envelope compared to what was shown on the ensembles 10-15 days ago, which is why the southern Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes (and I-95) are getting the snow.

Not an impressive lake effect set-up, but it will be in the air later tonight and Thursday. With a light flow and fluffy snow, any Lake Huron band will drop some accumulations, but unless it stalls for a time (which could result in a fluffy few inches for a small area) it'll be light stuff.

Trudged through a bit of fresh snow in the Metroparks in the eastern Cleveland suburbs this afternoon. Seemed like closer to 18" than 12"...it was a lot.

Average of a few measurements was 13-14" here.

Yeah there’s a silly amount of snow out there, eyeballing close to a foot. Not snowing as hard as when I went to bed but it’s still coming down. Wow.

More sleet than anything else between about 9:30 and 11:30 PM...some snow was mixed in but with the sleet it was compacting about as quick as it could accumulate. Back to mainly snow for the last 45 mins or so and coming down now, about 3" perhaps slightly more. As of midnight, 4.2" at KCLE, 5.0" at KYNG (they mixed too for a bit), and 7.1" (somehow) at KCAK. All 3 sites reported 1" per hour rates last hour, except for CLE, which reported 2" last hour. It's coming down!

I think they're a little too bullish but I think if you get into the NWS 3-5" (granted it can be argued that was a little conservative) I'd take it and run this winter. We need to get you out of the little screw hole between banding though and it should go back to snow and start accumulating quicker.

Huge bust for some of the models sure, but you’re in an advisory for 3-5” which still should be doable. Hi-res models had this mixing this evening. The low is closed off early, the warm air is wrapping in from the east. I’ve actually mixed a bit here. Any pockets of sleet will go away over the next few hours. You should still have enough liquid left to get into the 3-5” range, but 6”+ is probably off the table. I know that’s not that much after waiting this long to get something but if it hits the NWS forecast it’s hard to call it a huge bust (at least IMO). It seems like your area is sort of stuck in a little screw hole for now…things will move around but I think that’s why you’ve done so poorly and mixed so much so far. That storm last year you’re referencing stayed well under everyone’s forecasts (including mine) for a large area. I don’t think this is that, though some models will be pretty wrong for your area so it feels like you’re leaving something on the table.

Already nearing 1.5” here. Did mix with sleet a bit ago but went back to snow pretty quickly as rates ramped back up. There may be a bit of sleet at times the next few hours, but feel pretty good that it won’t significantly hurt totals…but it will keep the ratios below 10:1 tonight. It will be a dense, wet snow. Seems like a fast start with radar and short term models looking good for it to continue.

Copying over from the other Ohio thread... Big snow band starting to take shape parts of southern and eastern OH, and will ramp up more over the next few hours as it slowly moves north-northeast Multiple things contributing...THIS IS CLASSIC...you have weaker stability on the edge of the dry slot which can allow for slantwise convection (which is what typically occurs in mesoscale banded snow). You also have a TROWAL nosing in from the east (trough of warm air aloft), enhancing the mid-level temperature gradient. You already have a nice deform zone and some mid-level fgen, and that means ascent/rising air, which will cool the atmosphere further (and should gradually cause any pockets of mix to go away through the evening). This cooling will also increase the temperature gradient on the edge of the TROWAL, strengthening the fgen further and causing the band to really rip. Definitely some positive feedbacks here. The branch of the warm conveyor belt wrapping cyclonically into the deform zone is adding some deeper moisture to. Parts of eastern Ohio will absolutely rip snow this evening into the overnight. Travel will be nearly impossible, this is a high-end set-up for our region (and this will go into W PA, W NY, and eventually S Ontario too). The very heaviest may be east of CLE and CAK but this is an outstanding synoptic snowstorm for this region. I feel silly for being timid on the west trend pulling this into CLE until today. Sort of makes up for the last 6 weeks of not snowing at all.

Big snow band starting to take shape parts of southern and eastern OH, and will ramp up more over the next few hours as it slowly moves north-northeast Multiple things contributing...THIS IS CLASSIC...you have weaker stability on the edge of the dry slot which can allow for slantwise convection (which is what typically occurs in mesoscale banded snow). You also have a TROWAL nosing in from the east (trough of warm air aloft), enhancing the mid-level temperature gradient. You already have a nice deform zone and some mid-level fgen, and that means ascent/rising air, which will cool the atmosphere further (and should gradually cause any pockets of mix to go away through the evening). This cooling will also increase the temperature gradient on the edge of the TROWAL, strengthening the fgen further and causing the band to really rip. Definitely some positive feedbacks here. The branch of the warm conveyor belt wrapping cyclonically into the deform zone is adding some deeper moisture to. Parts of eastern Ohio will absolutely rip snow this evening into the overnight. Travel will be nearly impossible, this is a high-end set-up for our region (and this will go into W PA, W NY, and eventually S Ontario too). The heaviest may be east of some of the posters in this thread, but it's really an outstanding set-up for our region!

Radar is looking great! Frankly wouldn't shock me if most areas east of 77 have double digits by dawn with lake enhanced / effect to follow. This has turned into quite a storm. Was telling my dad, normally I'm excited for days before the snow starts. This had to trend so far to get to this point that it hasn't hit me that I will have an easy 6 or 8" by morning and quite possibly 10"+! Those of you in Geauga will get a larger lake contribution than I will. Plenty of snow to go around.

A lot of hi-res models had mixing all the way into NE OH and NW PA for a time later this evening, so I don't think the mix is a surprise. It "should" go to snow through the evening as better banding develops. I wouldn't call a bust yet but you'll know which way it's going in the next few hours if banding starts cranking and flips everyone back to snow. Along the OH river went back to snow as heavier rates developed over the last hour or so.

HKT itself is a nice, little town. Very wooded and hilly area so if you're into the outdoors there's some stuff to do. Even an ok little ski resort about an hour north of Hackettstown in Vernon, NJ. But, key words here are little town and wooded. If you're looking for more of a social life you may end up closer to Morristown. If you do look for an apartment in Hackettstown yourself feel free to reach out, I know people who lived in or still live in pretty much all the places in Hackettstown. Anyways, agree that I like where we're at. Nice little coating down here on all surfaces. Glad Summit and Cuyahoga finally are under warnings as I don't think it'll be even close to not being worth a warning, especially the eastern half of both counties. Could see them needing to add Wayne and Medina too just eyeballing the radar.

First few flakes have started here.

12z HREF pretty wet along and east of 77...maybe shave a little off due to low ratios to start, but a good idea IMO. The hi-res stuff is now west closer to the globals and may handle amounts and the cut-off with the very heavy band better. Someone may really get crushed in W PA or SW NY, and that could clip far eastern OH. 6z NAM probably too far west but this is a nice compromise.

The 6z NAM and RGEM were pretty far west. The hi-res stuff was well east yesterday and came way west. Feel like the 0z hi-res/HREF mean (the last image in my previous post) is a good starting point for the western cutoff (and it could be slightly too far east still IMO), and also max amounts where the heavy band pivots and where lake enhancement occurs. Will be curious to see the 12z run of that (and everything else)

Some pretty fun runs last night…the models that were west largely held, and the hi-res stuff that was east came west, though still has the Cleveland and Akron area on the fringe of heavier snow. 12z runs shall be interesting. This is shaping up to be decent in Cleveland and fairly memorable farther east.

Ha, Mars is based in Hackettstown, NJ where I was living the last few years. Small world! Congrats! While a last second nudge east is still possible with a low track east of the spine of the Apps, which causes me to want to lean a little low for the Cuyahoga and Summit County area, advisories at least seem like a fair bet for the eastern half of those counties, and if we see a nudge west warning amounts could get to Cleveland and Akron. Given some potential for less than advisory I can see issuing watches as a compromise, and then decide on nothing vs advisory vs warning tomorrow morning. Am nervous having nothing out when a small west shift brings warning amounts in with snow starting in 24 hours. Here’s what I’d do I put W’s in the CLE counties I’d have in a warning and W’s in the counties I’d have in a watch. Ok j/k I’d have warning where we have it and watch where we have advisory or nothing. I’d be very close to warning on Stark, Portage, Lake and Geauga too. I don’t really qualm with our current storm total snow forecast but precarious situation on the western fringe and having no headline makes me nervous. Curious to see the rest of the 0z models, expect a band of 1-2” per hour snow on the NW side of it’s a sharp gradient to much lighter amounts. Feel it’s likely the band at least gets into the easternmost tier of NE Ohio counties but if it gets west it would drop warning criteria snow. Feel like anyone east of 77 is in play but again feel best about the PA boarder counties and into PA. Where it pivots, perhaps somewhere near Erie or Buffalo, 18”+ of fairly wet dense snow is likely.

This is gettin close to being a memorable storm for CLE and CAK on east in Northeast Ohio. Feeing good about the YNG area and better about the Snowbelt. CLE still seems slightly in the outside looking in but the 0z NAM wasn’t a bad start. Will be curious to see the rest of the 0z models! Lake enhancement may add a fair bit east of CLE too. Banding May nuke on the northwest side of the storm, definitely will hit NW PA I think but may edge into NE Ohio, with a sharp cutoff to the west.

Well, models aren't shifting east or if anything, have edged west a bit. Feel like we'll probably see the watch expanded a row of counties west overnight tonight given these trends. Will be another day of interesting runs on Saturday! It'll be a sharp cut-off from warning criteria snow to just an inch or two, so small shifts can make a big difference for the Cleveland area.