Bubbler86

Favorite thing I have read all day. Somehow a not so correct rumor of the NAM being "out of range" has seeped itself into the main stream way of thinking and to me it is just a rule from some Weenie Handbook and if I had to guess it the book titled 'MA Thread's Answers when the NAM is not good to us'. The 84 hour NAM is wrong a lot but so is the 84 Hour Euro and most certainly the 84 hour GFS. The 84 hour NAM is a tool to use and watch for trends. The NAM certainly has a bias, qpf totals are usually too high, but being wrong at 84 hours is not one of them.

The CMC, which did fairly well with last night...a bit over done...is 2-4 tonight, 8-12 Sun, and then another MECS next weekend that is more concentrated a bit east. This is for the LSV. Here is the final talley map just for fun.

LOL. I enjoy doing it when I have time. @daxx obviously holds back on the model worshiping a bit more than I do but I enjoy seeing them all and using them to make a decision on a forecast. They are wrong soooo often that one can never take them verbatim so I do not spend a lot of time looking at the soundings maps because it will change in 6 hours...I more look for trends.

So there you have it...and old Fashioned EUS/Wright Weather/#neweather model PBP. Just less analysis and more model copying as there are so many more models now and I have to do some work. Lol.

Here is the FV3 to make you feel better! This is Sunday storm only.

GFS for Sunday storm is more a below the Mason-Dixon line thing as to WSW criteria stuff though maybe Lancaster would get a WSW If the Euro does not agree this gets thrown out in my book.

And FWIW, GFS for tonight keeps much of Lancaster sloppy but otherwise similar to other 12Z's in a 2-4" snow for similar areas as the others. Edit, really when looking at Pivotal it keeps much of the LSV sloppy. Focuses more on the MSV and NE. Far NW LSV does ok.

If flying SW I would be a bit worried. Both because of the snow and their penchant to ground flights early and often.

Rgem is just like the NAM and RRRDrps for tonight...drier than Nam but still 2-4" with an extreme gradient in far SE LSV. RGEM is the same as the RRRDRPS except a differet resolution I beleive. Both from up North. Maybe they are the same all together?

Yea, I keep calling it the Monday storm to people off line but I am way off with that statement. Good we will get to see the snow during daytime but less chance of the roads "caving" fully if rates are not enough.

This is wave 3. Nam suggests start time around Noon Sunday and running until around Midnight Monday Am so around 12 hours..

The SR Meso Canadian (goes by many names depending on resolution...Herpy Derpy, Herps Derps, RRR Derps) is very much like the Nam but a little dryer (for tonight).

Icon is more of a slop storm for tonight. 1-3" where it does have some snow which is mostly western LSV going Northeast from there. Some sleet for southern LSV.

Well the map is a bit under done in my opinion. Sometiems snow fall maps are over stated well this one is understated. If we get 10 hours of moderate snow with some bursts over 1" an hour I would expect 12"+ but the maps is more of an 6-10" so not a Hecs. This is for Sunday only. Column stays cold enough for snow through all of PA, except Philly, most of the storm.

The NAM snow maps are going to be close to a HECS I am guessing. It is a monster in both intensity and length. This map is 10 hours into the storm!

No doubt. Both of the next two storms are hour by hour for the LSV. No one is safe from snow or rain.

We are going to like the Nam for storm 3. It is flatter.

I feel bad for @Wmsptwx @2001kxand @pawatch. Terrible luck with these first two waves as suggested now.

Sure. Sometimes I leave off the time stamps and I guess I should not but trying to keep the screen grab "less than huge".

This is all from round 2 and does not include last night. I will post round 3 when it comes out.

Yep, NWS should give me a WSW!

Here is the NAM snowfall map for tonight...whether you like snowfall maps or not it is pretty representative of reality for this predict as the taint line is very small...it is mostly rain or snow. @Voyager is hopefully not flying home today.

12Z Nam is defintely not going be all snow in the southeast LSV. The 15 hour column chart shows a good idea of the where the rain snow line would be...slightly to the SE of the blue

The latest HRRR, thinks those 4-6" totals tonight will be over the Lancaster county crew. Forget the snow totals here just where the line of heavy snow is. If the Nam stays as is was earlier I would still think Lancaster mixes some.