Bubbler86

My interpretation is that there is confluence to the north where there actually is a high pressure albeit well west of where we would want it for a block so the Low is basically following the progressive zonal boundary. The further that the boundary is pressed south, the further south the low goes. Check out this pic and notice the 1014 beside that weak 1007 Low. Now I could be totally wrong so I am hoping Mag will fill in the holes from my thought.

It is really snowing/frz raining lightly here so I bet he is getting similar. Here is his link https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E5637

His weather stations are online. They are reporting 30/28 rright now with .01 of precip in the last hour.

Latest MESO Pressure maps show the low developing off shore east of VA Beach. If there was any kind of blocking this would be a blockbuster event with cold air being dragged into the system while qpf is thrown back over us.

It is doing this with forcing from the developing far off shore coastal so yea, we shall see. MA talking about radar back edge but the edge will stop if the NAM depiction is correct....will actual pivot a bit. Edit, though this map must be including sleet. Cherry Hill NJ is probably not getting 4".

Have had freezing rain mixing in with the snow here at times and trees are a bit coated now...need rates to pick up. 0Z Nam suggests they will in the next 3 hours. We shall see. Nam upped a bit again with 3-5" tonight from much of LSV North and East except southern half of Lancaster.

LWX radar was failing for me.

Light snow has started here. Radar looks fairly decent. Never were going to get the stuff in Central VA but some building going out west of us. 30/28

18Z Euro....a small step down from 12Z (for tonight).

Well that is a nice little bump up.

Tell the plumes 1" or bust.

The more robust solutions from this morning, for tonight, have really fallen by the way side. Still a WWA type event for some but energy sliding a bit more east vs. north. Looks like Lancaster may be 2-2 with jackpots these last few days.

With the clouds, falling precip (which will bring some of its own air down if falling fast enough) and being on the south side of the low meaning mostly east or north east winds when the low is near, we are hoping it just cold enough. Laying on the roads is another story. Will need it to snow fairly hard to get that started.

NAM for Sunday storm. An amazing 15 hour event now.

Going back to this to say 'Hi" since the NAM now has snow breaking out in the western LSV at 7AM Sunday. Lol.

Here is a slightly different worded one for the Western LSV and other areas. A little bearish if you ask me. PAZ034>036-056-063-064-020815- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.190303T1500Z-190304T1200Z/ /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.190302T0100Z-190302T1200Z/ Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 306 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches topped by a light glazing of ice are expected tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible Sunday and Sunday night. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday morning through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter.

Except it is 2-4" where he has 1-3 and 1-3 where he has 2-4 (generally).

Well @CarlislePaWx had been posting about the HRRR cutting back snow tonight and the Nam has followed suite....huge cut for LSV except far S/E. Close to be a non event for many since 1-3" events are indeed getitng ho-hum.

PBP is moving in a new direction.

Euro does change most of the LSV over near the end Sunday night Surface temps are not overly cold at any point of the storm. One thing with the 12Z suite is that although this is not going sit over us for 2 days it is still shaping into a 10-12 hour storm which is not too shabby.

And I should have said 6-12 for all but the FAR S/E, sorry. I am bad about concentrating on the Franklin, Adams, York, Dauphin and Cumberland area.

Euro snow map finally showed on the MA. This includes tonight so take ehhh....2-5" off this to estimate the prog's call for Sunday in the LSV. Seems like a decent 6-12". I will psot one for further up in PA if I see it.

I am guessing you mean Sunday? Looks good for Lancaster tonight. I would think for tonight that NWS's 2-3 is too low. I would go 2-4 or 3-5 in their shoes.

Here is the Euro snow depth map from before and after tonights snow. Pick a random city...Lancaster goes from 2-4 to 6-8 so pretty healthy jump.

Favorite thing I have read all day. Somehow a not so correct rumor of the NAM being "out of range" has seeped itself into the main stream way of thinking and to me it is just a rule from some Weenie Handbook and if I had to guess it the book titled 'MA Thread's Answers when the NAM is not good to us'. The 84 hour NAM is wrong a lot but so is the 84 Hour Euro and most certainly the 84 hour GFS. The 84 hour NAM is a tool to use and watch for trends. The NAM certainly has a bias, qpf totals are usually too high, but being wrong at 84 hours is not one of them.