Bubbler86

GFS is a real nice improvement snow map wise...from 18Z. 10-1. Catching up. 0Z 18Z

RGEM 10-1

Southern Lanco Special on the RGEM with over 30DBZ. Thanks to Blizz I have overcome Randy's quota.

So there really is a quota? LOL, I was joking...so we can talk about motor boating people but cannot post too many pics?

Yea, I guess due to the more East North East movement of the low. It actually seems a bit north from the 18Z Nam especialy with that extended period of heavy snow in the south part of the forum.

The Nam keeps Carlisle at or just below freezing I believe and rates would probably allow the snow to stick. If it is not that heavy then yea this is just going to be a white rain storm. No block up north, deepening low is heading out so not drawing in cold air, etc...

A deepening 998 low spinning off the VA Capes...man.....would be historic with a block. It deepens well in the 980's as it moves out North East.

Verbatim it is above freezing there for the whole storm.

Both the Nam and the 3K show 30DBZ snows in the Southern part of the LSV for 3-6 hours. As usual with the Pivotal Maps the Kuchera is lower than 10-1 but surprised the 10-1 is not a bit higher down there...more in the 8-10 range.

Looks similar to the Euro for the LSV. I cannot upload any graphics right now...I must have already gone through my March quota! Keeps giving me a file size error.

It is still snowing lightly on the latest Nam model at 1AM from Carlisle East....heavier snow has moved on by that point....at least East to Lancaster county.

Nam is hammering the southern part of the LSV at 7PM

For Carlisle it starts at 1PM and ends close to midnight last time I looked.

Once again Nam has flakes flying in or near Western LSV at 7AM but that first streak dissapates after leaving some light accums in SW PA.

LOL, that is your top agenda item tonight!

It is a public awareness thing for some but for me it is a curiosity as to their thought process behind it.

A little surprised no Warning for LSV yet. Event starts in about 16 or 17 hours. Sure, anything can happen at 0Z but the same can be said for 6Z. Their last published probablistic map from 45 min ago has 5" or more for all stations in the LSV.

And I am a little leary of that seemingly generous Kuchera map from 12Z. EC only shows .5 to .6 in my neck of the woods yet the Kuchera seemed like it was suggesting 10" though those stacked purples are sometimes hard to differentiate. The Cobb that Mag posted before was a little more smoothed out across the area which gives me more confidence in it. Some Cobb's take compaction into the equation though not sure of Mag's did. But I think for us to be "too" much over 10-1 with 2M temps being so warm we would need fatties for a long time.

Yea, my post was an IMBY comment but it did cut off 1-2" here and areas of N Md just below me. We are in the 5-6 now vs. the 6-7 before. Maybe Ouch was too strong of a word but "Dang, wrong direction" would have worked.

Ouch.....well it changed some out here. Lost an inch or 2 imby.

Checked out the NE thread and heard the Euro is pretty much unchanged up there so map should be out soon. A "tick" south east per their posts.

The Nam continues to show the surface temps are the only real issue at the height of the storm...925, 850 are all well below freezing. So it is going to snow whether you are at 32 or 36 with any kind if intensity. Here is hour 30 from 18Z. Blue to Green is the freezing line for the surface. Not sure I beleive the HRRR showing rain for so long.

The Casey Kasem of weather...King Elliot helped many a person in Philly become a weather nut. I think he coined the term Gorrila in the Gulf.

The Herpy Derps penetration of 4+ inches into 2/3 of the PA is a nice look and would really suggest a nice event with 10" lollipos down LSV way. Only model I can recall showing such a strong signal for 4+ inches that far north.

After seeing the Euro I am surprised at the Nam's low output. Not low as in too low but would have thought we would see some 1" qpf outputs.