Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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We are all white here now except the roads, driveways, sidewalks. Temps are down to just a tad under 32. The whole March Sun Angle debate is not of interest to me but regardless of time of year, snow is not going to accumulate well on roads during daytime and temps at or near freezing at least until we get pillow sized flakes. Does not matter what angle the sun is it is there regardless and the roads do not deflect it any manner. -
Looking at the latest HRRR and it is consistent in suggesting peoiple in the red circled area are going to have a snow to remember as to close to 2"/hr rates for several hours.
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34/28 with Mod to hvy snow here has turned the grass and deck white now. About 1/2". No roofs, cars and the road has no chance until the sun goes down some more (or we get gigantic flakes which we are not).
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@Itstrainingtime, I looked at the GFS as to why it was showing rain in much of Lanco during the height of the storm and it appears it brings the 850MB (and probably 800 though I cannot see that on Pivotal) line right up and into SE PA where as the NAM, for example, keeps it south of you The HRRR does the same thing in mixing you a bit as it intrudes into SE PA. Right now the line is well south of you in the southern DelMarVa.
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Tornado Watches in the SE. All really good Miller A storms have this component though I pray no one actually sees anything on the ground. Whether this is a pure Miller A or not is yet another discussion but I think it probably would fall into that catagory.
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Thanks, goes into that same circular look that is what want to see when a coastal is pumping mositure back over us. That 10 is right over my house.
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Yep, I shuttled between N Va and PA most of my child hood I remember hearing 2-4" and thinking we were in for a block buster. I had commented earlier this year how we seem to get less of those now and this winter went ahead and filled up with them.
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In my opinion it is built into the snow maps I have seen as we get 1-2" an hour rates from 6PM-10PM where we get our warning level accums.
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I think most models get the coastal infused forcing up your way or REAL close as shown here on the 3K Nam. I think your NWS forecast of 4-8" sounds good based on this. I messed up your locale earlier this year but think I got it right this time. Basically due west of New York and slightly North East of Allentown.
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We have had moderate to occasionally heavy snow for about 30 min...34 degrees so mid day it is not going to lay on anything (Jaunary or March) except where there is already snow. We have had about 1/4" there. Not even accumulating on the back deck. Wasting snow. LOL
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At Martin's right now. This is the scene. In case someone has never seen this funny video.
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That map is flawed from the GFS radar returns...basically no snow in Lanco. But we all know it is probably wrong anyway with the no snow and Herpy says "May I have this dance" to the LSV. Great 12Z trends today for the LSV.
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@Itstrainingtime, do not look at Goofus. :-). It has caved to the NAM/RGEM/EURO and is now much more amped with a 998 off the VA Capes but just looking at radar it is rain for much of Lanco. The gist of the GFS run should be that the LSV is about the get walloped and most guidance suggests even the SE corner comes away golden. Goofus jackspots @Cashtown_Coop
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Really the banding and heavy stuff does not get started until 6 or 7PM anyways.
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Rgem does start most of the LSV out as rain for a brief time but then transitions to curb stomping the SE Corner. Posting these panels because I do not feel we have had a chance to see this type of look often this year so good to see it on multiple panels.
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Was just looking at the HRRR destruction of Lancaster county (eventually flips it to slop at the end of 6-8") and noticed this panel does show a little wrap around FWIW.
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34/25 here right now. Headed out soon to go get bread and milk. LOL. Today is our day to shop.
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I think the R/S line does get near or over you but isn't that the place to be? If you want to see the action of a ground war you have to be at the front line. LOL. @pasnownut might have to finish the end of his ride home on his snowmobile.
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I agree, it is not going negative....progrssive and flying by. Going ENE so any wrap around will fly out of the state quickly so it would be minor. Storm deepens into the 980's east of New England!
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A pic of the banding setting up for southern and East Central PA. Radar may even take a traditional coastal look to at this point with returns blossoming in from the S/E instead of West.
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10-1 on the 12Z Nam. Continues to really play up the forcing that develops in SE PA then spreads to cover much of far S Central PA. Rippage type snow. 8-10 really sounds good for Southern York and Lancastser as long as you can stay on the right side of the line. Lollipos of a foot.
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That is what my wife did to me after waiting up for the 0Z Euro Tuesday Night (or really Wed Am). To quote her..."that stupid weather board".
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I did not do a forecast for the board but I had I would have put you and I at 6 to 8. Eastern and southern Lanco 8 to 10. Everything I have seen shows us missing the very best of the rates that slobberknock far SE PA and NE MD. I think rates Lanco overcome surface Temps. That observer in Upper Strausberg may have to take a storm off being number one (or even in the top 50 perrcent)
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Nam nailed this first streak of qpf. Shows it dying off and dry though until 1pmish
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3.11.2019
