Bubbler86

I had thought I remembered two or three people being within 1" or less of some goal or another. Cash was 50". Apparently Carlisle reached his. If any Friday event could delay a bit and show up mostly later in the day at least some would have a fresh white landscape to start the weekend.

Ha, I am just watching it as it is a wave coming under us. Seems the Euro has some accumulation now south of the turnpike.

We have a wave swinging under us in 3 days so my expectations are just to see that play out. If temps were not an issue I would be more gung ho in hoping moisture can be pushed up our way. We have done pretty with these clipper type systems this year. I also want to see Cashtown and at least one other, I think Carlisle, get to their goals :-).

It is also during the daytime with temps 30 and above for the whole state. This would be a potential decent event if at night or temps were 5-10 degrees colder. There is a good write up in the MA LR thread, by @showmethesnow, explaining implications of this storm to knocking down heights and making Monday more interesting by bringing the Mid West runner further south.

I will extrapolate the 18Z Nam and say it looks a lot like the 12Z GFS for Friday. The GFS has a 1-3" snow fall, with very light rates, over most of the LSV on Friday. But it is during the daytime or at least some day running into the evening and there are mixing issues for some along with temps slightly above 32. I think several people are looking for that amount to pad stats and hit marks for the season. A very low confidence thing right now in my opinion. @MAG5035, I do not keep records to the level that @Cashtown_Coop does but he and I have had mostly the same amounts in each event this year, sometimes one or the other is slightly more or less, so you could have two people well south of you to fend off for the yearly totals. :-)

I did not say biases were a fallacy I said some of the things bantered around here are thrown out to invalidate model runs that do not show snow in peoples back yards. As a specific example, if anyone has verifable data suggesting that the NAM at 84 hours is signifigantly less accurate than then average of other models at 84 hours then I will change my tune on that but otherwise it is just excuse that propogated from when they extended the ETA/NAM out from 60 to 84 hours. Actually if I rememeber correctly the 61-84 hour period was called the extended ETA and they meshed it into one product.

You mentioned bias and that is a sticking point with me. I think many model biaes are rumors that spread on boards like these are not based in reality. The FV3 over amps systems is a legit bias. The Nam at 84 hours is "out of range" is not in my opinion. Here is an offical NWS list of known biases. Not sure if this is the only one. If you check out this list it looks like they are picking on the GFS but it has also been around a long time. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#NAM Speaking of the NAM at 84, it is already on top of our Friday snow :-).

Yea and I think you were the one that caught that last night while happening.

Latest official totals. Highest single total I noticed was Schuylkill County. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=CTP

I think my discussion is more about modeling and how to use it...we defintely scored down here. I think the modeling did fairly well but parts of Lancaster ended up dealing with the same warm surge that NMD did causing less accum's. There were places in NE MD that had 6-8 forecast and got no accumulation.

LOL. Since you mentioned the FV3, it was one of two main stream models showing over 8" (Friday and Saturday) in Lanco along with the CMC. At one point on Saturday the CMC has 12-14" in Northern LANCO! lol.

The Euro defintely bounced some. It has not been that solid the year of 2019 in my opinion. I think the NAM lead the way on this for the LSV but we do not all have to agree on that. The GFS actually never showed 4-6" in Lancaster until the very last min if I am remembring correctly. It and the RGEM were the model of choice for the MA DC people to get big snow. For DC and Maryland the Euro and NAM told their fortune a week ahead of time. I think another difference here is that you call the GFS Pappa G while I call it Goofus so we are both probably looked through our own colored opinions. LOL.

GFS actually went hog wild at the end but leading up to the event, even at 24 hours, it was undone. Check out the Saturday morning GFS snow map. Half of reality in most cases for Central and Eastern PA (while being over done in DC and MD). But yea for most of us this was one of the top 3 events this season I would think.

Glad you did so well. I was seeing guys on here say 4-5" and saw the CTP reports saying similar for Lancaster proper. NAM, GFS, Euro all had them getting 6-10". N MD really got screwed with Frederick only getting 2" on a 6-8 forecast.

Yea, I guess there is two kinds of forecasting. Climo and modeling...and some in between. I would guess that 90% of forecasting done now is modeling. When I read NWS AFD's I see a lot of reasoning based on model solutions and the point and click forecasts are almost all models. But like you said, there are always surprises. I think that is what makes it fun especially a bust to the positive. You had a good hunch that the 6-10" modeled for your area was too high. I did not mean to sound bearish I was just reflecting on the fact that we had 3 snows this weekend and only had to shovel for one...the other two melted off without shovel. When I breezed over the EC last night I did not notice a plowable event so this could be my last shovel this season but I certainly hope not!

Northern and Central Lancaster County got screwed. Some 7-9" near the MD line and that was with mixing at Delta and near Strictlerville. Seems the storm shut off more quickly than modeled. Coastal pulled it out instead of pushed it up...someone else had mentioned that last night. Dillsburg reported 8" which is the highest I have seen away from the MD line so far. Upper Strausburg had 6.5. I had 7. Easy shovel as only about 4" on the pavement. Nice, peaceful morning for what might be the last one of the season. EDIT-FV3 has 3 possible shovel events in the next 15 days. LOL. Hmmm...

Saw an 8.5" report in Delta and near 7" York City.

Yea, each of these flakes counts as .001. Lol. They are huge.

So you will need Friday to come through to get your goal.

Sorry, man. You looked like a sure bet to get 4+.

This last gasp line has the largest flakes. Just wow.

That thought you had yesterday, about 3 consectuve measureables at MDT, is going to look pretty cool when we look back at records years from now. Will we remember the first two basically melted off in a day, not sure, but looks like one great stretch of March.

Funny the best radar would be in Lancaster. I just measured the snow and I would say 6.75. I do not think it is compacting too much. Might make 7 but probably not 8.

And there is our low a tad North of the VA Capes. Almost an exact duplicate of Friday nights location.

I noticed the heaviest returns go toward you and then have faded back some. The LWX radar I had just peaked at looked like they were over you though. Could always be issues with the angles...CTP radar does not work so well for my area so I have to watch LWX if any of the NWS sites.