Bubbler86

The 18Z Nam makes Lanco the screw zone. LOL Crazy models.

I guess since I am more focused on snow I was looking at the second half. Those 500MB maps the last few days have screamed for attention though I still worry about it being too warm.

I think it was something they probably should have been warning about a few days but everyone's focus was on today when today was never really a threat with the warm weather preceding it. An inch or two of snow and no one will say much but a plow-able snow will bring about complaints.

One thing I am going to point out...IF (stated in all Cap's with all the usual disclosures of what IF means) Lanco or really anyone in the LSV gets 4-6" of snow tomorrow and the rates are street stick worthy the NWS is going to be dished out some disdain. The Zone's say rain/snow showers ending by 1PM with a high of 41. Tomorrow is still a fairly busy travel day.

EC likes herself some Lancaster County. Bordering on a WSW level.

We know winter weather is near when the Herps Derps makes its first appearance.

We had some way down here as well. Happened with the heavier rates. Temps dipped to 34 but now back up to 37.

Add to the fun...GFS snow map for tomorrow. NE PA is also snow from today.

Icon is sort of on board as well though a bit warmer so the precip is there but not as much coverage of snow.

The hrrr plays the retrograde surface low game. In fairness the Nam also did this for a panel. Surface temps are above freezing for almost all of PA during this time so rates, rates, rates.

A couple days ago the NAM was showing a general 2-4" snowfall in the LSV so going to mention that it case it comes full back. It is halfway back now. Surprised this is the final output as the simulated radar maps look more impressive.

I agree though the EC quick withdrawal of moisture bothers me. I still think Eastern LSV has the best chance being the closest to the departing surface low.

There is also traffic cams of course....let you see the rate of traffic down 81. Here is one from Carlisle and Chambersburg. https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=40.18684,-77.211774 https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=39.963996,-77.578003

Hope and prayers for her trip. Still a bit stressful with just regular wet roads.

I do not think it is Its 35 on my side of the mountain and plain rain and the Wunderground map shows just a station or two at or below freezing as of now and rain has already passed through all these locations. So this morning, if I were driving, I would treat it like one of those "bridge freezes before roads" situations if on a small side road but I still cannot see any interstates freezing with all the traffic. FWIW, the WWA was dropped south of the Mason Dixon.

I think it's wet roads only. Ec is also minoring out the Monday "event" as of now...for most except NE PA.

Get some temps into the mid to upper 20's then we have some chaos. Seems some of these temps are a few degrees below modeled.

Did just notice some colder temps at MDT, 34 York which apparently had some clouds breaking and down to 31. That's something at least.

I was in Adams county most of the day and they are not even pre-treating the roads which was surprising....just due to the WWA. With that said it is still near 40 throughout the LSV right now. Not a normal setup for icing in a few hours other than the cold front/flash freeze situations.

Lancaster Monday Snows on Nam...

I guess for me it has to be under 30 at the surface for ice to a really accumulate on the street during the day especially if it is raining with any kind of intensity. But not trying to downplay it just do not think it is anything, especially for the LSV, that significantly slows down people or traffic. My opinion is less about models and more about time of year and temps starting out above 32 and relying on evap cooling for an ice event. I think the Monday evening rush hour has the potential to be worse especially the Eastern part of the LSV.

I am not going to look through all the short range models in lieu of just looking at my favorite the Nam. At no point on Sunday are the surface temps nearly cold enough for freezing rain to be a factor on the roads in the LSV. They are a good 5 degrees too high especially with it being daytime and the above normal temps much of this week. With that being said Voyager commented that he would be going through areas further North East but even in those areas, at noon on Sunday, are foretasted by the Nam to be too high for major road freezing issues. Models could be wrong so if someone is forecasting that then so be it but in my opinion Monday late is better time for winter weather due to the retreating temps.

Some people do not agree with this but the weather really has been fairly warm and the roads are generally not going to be overly cold. Can snow lay on them? Sure....will freezing rain at temps of 30-32 be an issue during day light? Not so sure.

I personally do not think Sunday is going to be that bad for for most areas south of i80. Monday is still up for grabs. Would not surprise me to see some LSV locales get 2-3" of snow Monday. Euro is all rain for Sunday.

North half of PA gets nam'ed. ULL goes a bit south and all of Pa is nam'ed. Pipeline of moisture off the coast back into the cold air...coastal far enough away to not steal all the "thunder"