Bubbler86

I have to jump on a long call but will look forward to Daxx giving us details about the Dec 29th Euro Snowstorm!

And the "gang" in the MA LR thread continue to be too concerned with pattern change. I know it is what they do best and what they want to talk about but they have been wrong so often the last two seasons that I wonder when its going to click that many are here to track snow storms. We need two things for snow...moisture and temps that stay near or below freezing through most of the column. That's it. We can get snow with the MJO in phase 1000 or the TPV on the moon as long as we have a function to get moisture and the temps. We need the source region of disturbances to be one that is further S/W than most in recent years or a more zonal flow with a slight but mostly relaxed area of heights to our South East. There are other possibilities such as clippers and such but I believe the storms that really seem to give us decent, not KU but decent, snows are of these two sources. The term is Gorilla in the Gulf for a reason. LOL. Rant Off

Strike

@Wmsptwx's question rallied us to being one of the hottest boards on here despite no snow. Thanks! Interesting that we are already higher (35) than our forecast high temp today (34) and it just feels not cold out so I am thinking some may break into the 40's today.

After thinking about it I am going to change my memories first reaction and say mid 90's. It was not a snow that affected a large area of the Northeast. Most people south of the LSV, and maybe even Lancaster county, got rain but back in the Western LSV we had a surprise 4-6" but nothing like the 1982 storm you mentioned as temps were very marginal in the one I am thinking of.

You must not have been on the Usenet board at that point (2000) or you would have known better :-)

Those kind are always the best. The one I am remember from March late 80's/early 90's was forecast to be partly cloudy and maybe a chance of rain showers and the next morning I happened to flip on TWC (a big deal back then) and there was flashing and beeping for a WSW starting that morning. It may have even been late March approaching April. It was like winning a baseball game after being down 9-1 going into the 9th. Super Bonus snow. Though to me the biggest surprise snow storm of all time, and probably the biggest victory for this board's (Usenet, EUS, whatever) penchant to never say never, is January 2000. Watching that baby climb the East Coast and listening Live to NWS, Accuweather, etc...scramble to explain how we went from from no snow to 12-18" was like a sweet victory. I would argue that storm is the basis for this board today. If it had not happened we may not be here typing this.

Did not realize you were so young...you may be one of the younger posters here.

There was s surprise snow storm in March, very late 80's or early 90', where the forecast the night before was partly cloudy and I woke up to a Winter Storm Warning that next day for 4 or more inches. It was a slop fest of a storm but surprise WSW's are unheard of anymore.

10 day Euro has temps above freezing north of Edmonton, Canada. That would usually be a good look for us but....

Elliott Abrams was off his rocker raising totals every hour or two.

Jan 1996 for me. I lived in a row home in Philly, with a one way street and cars parked on both sides, and the whole neighborhood had to pitch in and dig out the 30" from the road/block as there was never going to be a plow getting down that street. We had chairs in our parking spaces for a week or two afterwards.

Whopper of a deal if you have a delayed plane this holiday season...they must have read the GEFS and figured they were not going to lose much. https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/business/burger-king-delayed-flight-impossible-whopper/index.html

You are one of my favorite posters. If you leave the board is lessened.

The way I look at it, being near the boundary in January and maybe the first half of February means we are near the moisture. December and later Feb into March we need better patterns but just a standard SW/NE flow will do just fine mid winter as long as there is no SE Ridge.

Stand up the pins and lets have ourselves a bowling party.

There was a Bubbler storm last year as well. Will it become a yearly tradition? OP EC also brought back that light frozen "stuff" around the 26th albeit a little north of the LSV this time. Some flakes around then would at least add to the festive atmosphere a bit.

I just do not like that 240 hour map with another mid west blizzard but not worth breaking down a 240 map. Seems to be nudging 50 on Christmas Eve and Day as well. On the plus side people who are travelling in the East will not have to worry about snow delays. One thing is for sure...no one is going skating on their local pond any time soon.

I agree that there's no way it is a good look. Its just better than the rest of this year IMO. Two weeks ago we had great looks for the Dec 15th-Dec 30th time frame (estimating dates) and it ended up being a combo of false info and bad timing. All we need is a piece of energy to eject out of the far S/W and not be bullied to cut. The ridge can gently move it N/E without cutting.

Maybe I am reading the map wrong but isn't the surface boundary/freezing line close to our locale through much of the first 5 days of January? Its a smoothed out average but not sure I will call it a toaster bath. I see the 850's anomaly's are up but not nearly as much as what we have coming next week.

My spin is that it gives us a better chance at bowling ball type lows and we sneak in a frozen event with seasonal temps despite the Pacific spewing all over us. If one wants arctic air then the american suite has absolutely none after we are done here in the next couple days. The pole is completely shut off. But I think it could still get cold enough for snow in the right situation. I am frustrated with the constant train of waves going up to our west.

Also they like MJO talk. When things get down just post an MJO graphic and confidently talk about skipping phases. Also post tweets from HM with shovels in his hand.

There are actually several panels in a row, between Christmas and New Years, where there is not one negative temp reading anywhere within the confines of the CONUS map on TT which includes a good chunk of South and Central Canada. Zonal to an extreme for Northern half of the US. Still that is better to me than lows constantly carving out troughs just to our west. Neither solution is going to give is a Hec's but Zonal could be enough to get us into some snowier situations on day to day. But pattern wise its disappointing.

I was in Carlisle that Winter and the snow was a bit more powdery from my memory but we also lost power. That was one of the chillier nights of sleep I can remember. Got down into the low 40's in the house. Probably forced @Itstrainingtime to give the A/C a break as well.

How does dry and moderate/seasonal fit you with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's and 30's? That looks like our fare for the holiday period. Probably at least one day of 50's and 60's for highs if I had to guess. But the zonal flow shown on the GFS, heading into the New Year, is one that could produce for our latitude. It lessens the chances of a cutting system.