Bubbler86

9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea if this ugly 12z suite ends up coming to fruition, thats going to be a tough bust on those models. Seems like they're starting to keep the primary dominant too far north as it does get into Michigan.. which probably won't work for most anyone in here unless we have a rapidly intensifying coastal low. Just looking at the NAM for instance we have no redevelopment of the 850mb low instead having the original one going into the lakes and sending in warmer 850 air. This is a change from earlier runs a day or two ago which were bringing the 850 low over or just south of the area. Just not going to work without any established cold air. This isn't even looking all that great in NY State either, seemingly more relegated to the high ground up there. 

The EC and GFS busted pretty good in the central on Sat too, the GFS moreso... having a warning snowfall close to game time at UNV when the reality ended up being about 2 inches or so and a lot of sleet and even freezing rain for not only there but most of the north central. The GFS in under one cycle has went from about a foot at UNV to pretty much zero at 12z today. Thats rough, but that's what we're working with here.. a degree or two aloft either way turns this to a snowstorm or yet another rainstorm. We'll see what the Euro does, what the 12z ensembles look like, and go from there with the 18z and 0z tonight. There's still a chance the storm evolution goes back the other way as this is only 1 run. 

Because my area was on the cusp from the very beginning I have been noticing the trends on this one fairly closely and if you go back 2-3 days you will see the rain/snow line advancing further north if not every run at least every few runs.  So this may be one run but the trend has been several unfortunately.  

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Gfs looks bad forum wide...just no cold air to work with.

Yea, it (and the EC) really misled us for a few days. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and fwiw, i do see the HP that is similarly placed to last weekends event (approx 200 miles N of Maine/Canadian border).  Not sure that a 1035 has enough power/input that far N.  Move it south to Lake Placid-Lake George, and I'm interested.  Just dont see a mechanism for that to happen w/ flow pattern were in. Too much ridging out ahead.  Need the letter H up where i referenced and i'm borderline giddy (or 50/50), or -AO.  Without neg NAO/AO, HP's just scoot along like LP's. 

Gotta block da flo yo

What the heck is wrong w/ me.....I think I'm broken.....

all this debbie stuff just aint my jam.  

 

It's not Debbie stuff.  We are here to discuss the weather, model output, etc...if you were trying to play the Nam and Icon as being good for snow then you would be bull shitting.  LOL.  Debbie is looking at a situation that looks decent but could go bad and saying it will go bad. Right now this does not look decent.  We have once again fallen prey to the seemingly always wrong 4-7 days EC and GFS depictions to hope for something and slowly seen it taken away as it gets closer.  Been a bad trend the last two winters especially this one. 

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Getting to close for sizeable shifts, but yes, 25 -50 miles is possible and can make a big diff. for some.  I've been out since Monday, so heck yeah, I'm rooting all of you on from the sidelines.

 

Nam is coming in a smidge North so not going to be good news for a miracle on this run.   Not only does the LSV not get snow there is almost no snow anywhere in PA outside the Western mountain ridges and some random lollipops other places. ...yuck.

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

And if it were not stale cold air in place.


.

Right, I could only have one wish in per post.  LOL.  If we had arctic air this would be a bread and milk situation. 

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, it’s going to be tough for York & Lancaster to get back in this one.

But I think anyone along I -81 give or take a few miles & points west should still pay attention for now.

I agree that the bullseye appears to be the mountains, but I would settle here for the scraps of a possible few inches of snow along I -81, just like last nights 0z GFS.

If the trajectory of the low were a bit different I would feel more confident for western LSV.  Look at this panel on the NAM and it is where we want it if it were going east by North east instead of North by North East.

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great forecast discussion by CTP this morning. If you are near I -81 or north & west of that, you are still in the game.

Here is CTP’s Discussion:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Focus in the long term remains on the increasing likelihood of a highly elevation dependent snow event impacting the region beginning Friday night and continuing through much of Sat night as a Miller-B type surface scenario accompanies a well defined upper low that will develop across the Mid Miss valley and track east across Southern or Central PA Sat night. The 700 mb center is progged to move east along I-80 in Ohio and PA. After a mainly cloudy and rather mild Friday with temps in the upper 30s to around 40F, the boundary layer is expected to start out warm enough for primarily rain right at the onset in most areas. However, layer cooling associated with increasing uvvel, and evap cooling as the precip falls into the dry LLVl air will help to mix or change the precip over to wet snow across parts of Central and likely most or all of Ncent PA. Height falls and 1000-500 mb thicknesses falling to below 540 DAM will allow the precip to change over to snow, that will fall at a moderate to heavy rate at times late Friday night and Saturday. Of particular interest will be later Saturday morning into Sat afternoon when elevated instability being transported north toward South-central PA and areas of fairly strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis could lead to some 1-2 inch per hour, heavy snowfall rates anywhere northwest of the I-81 corridor. Critical thickness and 850 mb zero wet bulb line will exist somewhere between I-99 and I-81 during the mid to late morning hours Saturday, and this is where the greatest uncertainty is with respect to precip type and intensity. Again, we`re messaging the point that the initially warm boundary layer and periods of strong, dynamic forcing will lead to a very elevation dependent snowfall across Central and Northern PA with notably lower chances for significant snow near and to the SE of I-81. Snow accums by late Sat night could approach 8 inches at elevations over 2000 ft MSL in northern PA with 4-6 inches possible at the same elevations in Central PA. Accums in the valleys (depending on their exact elevation) will vary from 3-5 inches in the north to between 1-3 inches in most of Central PA. The threat for any sleet and/or FZRA is very minimal at this point. Increased pops for Friday night into Sat as a result of the anomalous southeasterly low level jet (over 50 kts at 850 mb) and plume of Atlantic moisture overrunning a dome of cold/stable air east of the Appalachians. This justifies categorical POPs Friday night into Saturday. The latest GEFS mean qpf ranges from 0.6 to 1 inch across the forecast area by Saturday evening.

This is shaping up to be on of the storms where LSV's have to be happy for the folks in the mountains who miss out on most of the big coastal.  Going to take a fairly big shift at this point in the game to get LSV back into it.  50-100 miles.  When they say N/W of the I81 corridor I do not think they literally mean I81 they mean the whole valley encompassing I81....N/W of there.

Those are some intense rates for North Central PA on the GFS.  Someone is going to get a payday off this...will be interesting to watch evolve even if not for me.  Cumberland County gets a big jackpot on the western side.

GFS is an I81 mauler but considering its recent demotion....

Just now, pawatch said:

 

And here I thought the GFS has actually done better this winter than last.   Of course I am looking at a Northern Mid-Atlantic view of it vs. large scale like the metrics. 

Agreeing with @pasnownut the NAM is not our friend at this juncture....in the LSV.   Taking too long to transfer. 

Just peeked at the Euro and it still has the surface low traversing the DelMarVa over land.  Still too far north for the LSV majority. 

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Oh boy this is dangerous but what the heck.....

If one extrapolates the 12z NAM progression, you can see similarities of past weekend event.  Primary too far West and North, and no sign of transfer.  For this to work, it needs to be showing signs of that happening at the end of the run.  I'm not seeing it (believe me....I want to though).  Its a shame to see a 5 contour close LP at 500 "wasted" like that.

Mag, Blizz, Trainer, Bubbles....anyone....tell me what I'm not seeing

Mind you, I want everyone to know that I'm NOT saying I'm right, but I love for someone to discuss (which is what we do here) as to why I'm off my rocker.  

Take a peek back at Saturday NAM run for past weekend event and look at surface features.....it should raise an eyebrow.  

Buried under work today so just watching posts occasionally...,y input would not be one of having done any research at this point.  I looked at the GFS snow map to see what it showed quickly and noticed that, at least for central PA, the areas it showed snow were pretty close to the 0Z Euro but that is my only non scientific input for now :-)

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hey, come on man, I love Philly. The city is great to visit. I also am a huge Philly sports fan as well !

Anyway, yes, the storm needs to stay on or just off the coast.

I lived there for 10 years so I guess I am just a bit jaded.  Nothing against the sports teams just not a great place to visit in my opinion when you can enjoy the country around Lancaster or can go to Pittsburgh and get the culture of Philly without the overbearing city life feeling.

PS-Let's Go Caps.

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The ensembles show lots of possibilities with the track, which probably won’t be nailed down until Thursday night or Friday. 

While our benchmark is not on land, coastal huggers & just barely off of the coast tracks are ideal here back towards   I-81. Otherwise, we get fringed & it’s congrats I-95. Most of our best storms, they mix or turn to rain.

You are right about having No cold air to spare. This storm doesn’t look to be a rapidly deepening storm, so precip rates & exact track will make all the difference.

I would be fine with a few inches of snow followed by mixing, then back to snow. A good old 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch snowstorm would be good. Not every storm can or needs to be a KU. 

Right, I am just discussing what the 18Z GFS showed.  If that surface or 850 reflection gets anywhere near Philly

1) We are toast snow wise.

2) It will leave our state disappointed which is the standard reaction of most who decide Philly should be on their vacation plans.

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Far from out of the hunt, that track still looks good, just slightly different outcome.

Out of the hunt was specific to this particular model run.   I personally would prefer rain and 50's over a couple inches of snow and then rain and 30's.  If you look back at some classic MEC/HEC situations, even in the times of a deeper cold mass, we want the surface reflection down near Norfolk and east of the DelMarVa not running right through the DelMarVa.  We need it south of what the 12Z GFS showed regardless of the algorithms that showed snow on it. 

One positive considering our lack of CAD/deep cold air is there is little forcing shown in the GFS so there should not be a spout of warm air coming up....just do not want ANY warm air considering we have no cold to give :-).

It shows almost the same exact thing happening again on Jan 30.   Not as much the origination vs. a low running right through the DelMarVa which is just far enough north to turn the LSV over.   Our benchmark in the LSV is not on land. 

Well 18Z GFS took all of the Southern 1/3 of PA out of the hunt for now but still close enough to watch. 

31 minutes ago, Voyager said:

True that. It's not out there in day 10+ la la land. Its definitely close enough to take seriously.

While we wait for the next model to step up and be our hero we can throw anything we want out to see if it sticks...I looked at the JMA and NoGaps and both seem to move the low under PA though it is very close and would probably not be snow for the LSV taken verbatim with marginal air.

36 minutes ago, canderson said:

I think it’s safe for me to post again now so I’m here to will this weekend storm to fruition. 

Blizzard, bring it home for the entire region! 

Before you know it this thing will be in the range of the NAM and things will quickly look better.

120 Euro looks a lot like the Canadian as to low placement

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

actually its rather fitting as I'm probably the most SE of the forum, so its me all by myself.

edit - Me and Superstorm.

 

Yea I was just kidding as that seems to be a popular phrase this year.  Every storm is a forum divider in some aspect as if LSV gets hit big then Willliamsport is usually fringed.  

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Well well well....Looks the the ship better get patched up quickly.

Go look at the 12z Op (snow map too if you want to brighten your Monday mood a bit).

verbatim im fringed but 90% of you are getting a beatdown if this finds a way to hold (I know it likely wont, but for the next 6 hours I'm happy for y'all).

 

It's a forum divider!  

Goof is traveling faster and further south at 0z.  Ups the stakes.

45 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Euro & Canadian had support for next weekend’s potential coastal from the EPS, UKMET & even the JMA at 12z.

 

 

 

To personally show you my appreciation if my backyard gets 2" or more of snow between Friday the 24th and Monday the 27th I will name this Storm The Blizzard of 93 Storm.  And to show you I keep with those names I still call last November the @Eskimo Joe Storm as he was on here alerting everyone to it when the models did not want to hear it.

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro had a great shift towards developing a coastal storm next weekend !

The Ohio Valley low gives way to a secondary low that develops & slowly moves off of the DelMarVa peninsula. 

We are very much in the game for next weekend. Today, things took a great step in the right direction & we are only 5 to 6 days out.

 

 

 

 

This is very good news.  Yesterday we were seeing 65 yard punts so if we can find something as this cold snap ends it will be a big bonus.