Bubbler86

Something I have not seen mention of but have seen it modeled twice now...seeing it in the latest Canadian...is that the southern wave we have been so focused on is so far away from our area by the time the Northern Wave gets near that there is actually some coastal development from a transfer Saturday night which kicks precip back over us.  I believe Mag touched on this today but thought he was more commenting on the UL/Northern Wave passing vs a transfer. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I may be overreaching, but as it has just appeared on nooner guidance, IF it were to drop in a bit sooner, it COULD help to tug this thing a bit further west.  

No doubt.  I am just not saying much on that as when there is no guidance showing it we are talking Jan 25, 2001 type errors with the models and it is so rare they are that wrong. We are now within 60 hours of the event. 

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Thank you! Rain would really f up my weekend so I'm rooting for this. I'd rather it snow than rain. 

Hard to see DC getting snow at this point...at least with the coastal.  Would need to be a huge change in the timing of the waves.

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

say what you will..........

NS diving in a bit??  Too late?? Go look at last couple runs and it wasn't there.  

 

That NS wave appears to set off quite a bit of precip in the western 2/3 of PA during Saturday night now...on the GFS and I think last nights Euro.  Most shows as rain on GFS but that is subject to change. 

19 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm poor with exact timing for systems - can anyone tell me when precip will hit/exit Saturday for both the greater DC area and again the LSV? My guess it's rain but regardless of precip type. Thank you!

To add to this since the GFS was just coming out it shows light rain from around midnightish until somewhere between 5-7AM and then out of DC.  Pretty much nothing north of the DC proper through Sat daylight hours. 

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm poor with exact timing for systems - can anyone tell me when precip will hit/exit Saturday for both the greater DC area and again the LSV? My guess it's rain but regardless of precip type. Thank you!

Most models have no precip in the LSV and the precip in DC is gone Sat Am (after starting post 7PM Friday)  near day break though the whole upper level low bringing showers thing later Sat into Sunday is still in play. 

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The Great Lakes are pretty much wide open too. Ice coverage is at a measly 5.6%, which isn't completely unheard of this time of the year but certainly a strong indicator that this winter has had a lack of any sustained cold in the Eastern US and Great Lakes Region. If we do eventually see an actual dead of winter grade cold shot sometime next month there is going to be some major lake snows for folks underneath the favored flow off the lakes. 

Yea, that's another good point.  I have not seen photo one out of Buffalo showing them dealing with several feet of fake snow.   I keep thinking winter will eventually lock in for a period and they are indeed going to face a late wrath.  

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Well, I guess it might be a bit torchy down there, but up here it doesn't feel like it. It's obvious by the lack of snow cover and frozen ground that we've been above normal, but it just didn't like it was that much above.

One tell tale sign I have seen that I feel is fairly rare but not unheard of...there is not one area of frozen water anywhere in the parts of PA I travel.   Not even in the Upper Elevation State Parks across S Central PA.

16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Not sure if your lumping in the Mid-Atlantic folks but there hasn't been anyone in this subforum that has called this event DOA, including myself who's been pretty pessimistic on this storm threat the last couple days. I'm not going to sugarcoat a setup that doesn't look that ideal, but I'm also not ruling out seeing enough of a tug north to get something into the southern parts of the area. The northern branch wave progged behind the departing coastal may also deliver light snows, something I mentioned on Monday. The Euro has been a bit more amplified with that feature and the 0z threw a large swath of 1-2" across PA from that. 

That Nam is still going to insist on a period of snow during early hours of Saturday AM.   Both S Central/LSV in PA and the DelMarva.  DelMarva is due to rates. 

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN. 

 

Dec had 21 days AN with an overall average of +2.3.   Its very easy to argue that our averages are skewed low at this point as seemingly every winter at least two of the months are AN normal. 

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

And then there's me. The person who has worn a t-shirt under a sweatshirt, covered by a winter coat, most days since November...lol

Since my thyroid issues developed, the cold has been much more difficult to tolerate. 

 

Yea, I get cold sometimes too...I have that deal where my hands get white quickly (raynauds) so if I worked outside I would certainly be wearing a coat and more winter gear as it has not been warm but I was comparing this year with last year, in my head, and as Mike suggested this years cold has been a muted cold.  Almost like we are being teased. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I haven't worn a coat since I was a kid living at home. I have a light jacket (windbreaker kind of deal) and a couple of sweatshirts.

Right now we're (LNS) sitting in 7th place all-time for January warmth. As you and others have pointed out we've had very warm days in January and February in recent years and this year is no exception - what is standing out to me this winter is the complete lack of very cold nights. Without looking I'd say we've only had a few nights in the teens and probably none of them below 15. Lack of snow cover certainly plays a part in that...

The interesting thing is I did not really think we had a warm month but you are right in that MDT has only stayed below freezing two days in January and has only hit the teens 3 times with all being above 15.  We have been colder in my area and have gone down between 10-15 a couple times this month but nothing major.  Funny but records say we hit 69 twice at MDT this month and I did not remember that. Going back to Dec we had 3 more nights in the teens and 1 day below freezing but no days in the 60's.  So as we high the 2/3 mark in our Met Winter I would not call this one of our warmer winters ever but for the purposes of this board it is one of the worst weather wise.  

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

How many days in a row can the sky look exactly the same as the day before? 

Or how many mornings can we go without wearing a real coat.  Have not worn a coat once this winter.  I do not work outside but still.... 

Nam with a strange evolution snow shield for lsv this weekend.  Snows down near the big cites of the ma.

Have been following the possible light snow event Friday AM pre-dawn.  Precip making it over the mountains seems like a long shot but keep seeing more and more support for it.  Also 84 Hour Nam also looks like we are about to get QPF thrown over us Friday night but there is nothing I see to stop the stuff from heading east by north east so light if anything at all. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes. We need everything to align perfectly to have a chance this weekend...at least for next weekend the setup looks more workable. 

Could be 3-4 days of A/C and one with some heavy shoveling for you :-)

On the subject of extreme weather the Euro now has 3 days in the 60's (LSV) next week with one day threatening 70 followed by the potential for a MECS if not HECS just 36 hours later starting Thursday night (next week).  A substantial slp is lifting through the lower Miss Valley while bagginess off the coast of S/E VA suggests the low is getting ready to transfer and lock in the cold air being funneled down through PA from a retreating high.  Unlike this weekend the late week storm next week has cold air to work with just to our north. 

There is our Gorilla 

53 minutes ago, daxx said:

Keep up the good work Bubbler!  To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad!  We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol 

Ehh, did not work.  I was hoping.  It was a bit of a downer when I saw the NoGaps go east this morning.   I know I am model watching instead of synoptic reasoning but do not have time for much else. 

The Euro  trended West with the precip shield  but not enough for the LSV.    Looks similar to the GFS without doing a map to map compare. 

14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Good grief.....shall I take my toys elsewhere.....?

And I am being sarcastic like usual.  Easiest way to blow of disappointment from the bad trends today. 

Just now, daxx said:

Keep up the good work Bubbler!  To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad!  We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol 

Wow, you posted when the Euro was running...let's see if you have some mojo here.  LOL. 

Just now, canderson said:

Dr. No hasn't been Dr. No since, what, 2015?

He has been this week...we have about 35 min until we see if it continues.  

41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else. 

This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this:

1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say

2-Its only 6 hours until the next run

3-I'm just happy to be in the game

4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough

5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface.

6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps

7-We were never in this one.

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else. 

It was a 'Gem of a CMC" run though if you like mood flakes.