Bubbler86

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Maybe the 3 counties (Harrisburg area) above the non advised counties in the LSV but I doubt it. Any trace of ice constitutes a winter weather advisory and everyone's dewpoints are still in the 20s. They're probably going to ride on it till after precip arrives and go from there. 

Yea,  that's what I meant.  Franklin, Cumberland and at least part of Dauphin.  Its in the 40's in those areas right now and the zones have no mention of ZR.  The zones should at least match the advisory.  

17 minutes ago, paweather said:

For my area it is cautious, for your area though it could be quite real. 

I will be a little surprised if they do not drop it for the LSV and maybe even the MSV. 

12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

I do see what JB is saying wrt to the overall pattern in 93-94 vs this Feb. There was generally a -EPO on that period (much more negative EPO period late Jan of 94) along with a -PNA, which we are running currently and a somewhat +NAO and -AO. The NAO that winter didn't really have any periods of significant + or -.

So I can see what he's saying with regards to a gradient type pattern, which we can score something from... but I certainly disagree on the potential to even come close to that winter. The dominant +NAO/AO is really hurting, especially combined with the -PNA in this case. So we get a decent EPO ridge in the progs.. but have a western trough (-PNA). That dumps cold to the west, which would be okay in a more neutral NAO/AO regime that allows the cold to spread east and southeast... but I just feel it is too much in the current predicament. You see this in the model forecasts where yea there has been good runs from time to time with plenty of snow.. but much more often it's runs of storm after storm after storm of p-type issues at best and cutters at worst. If we did get the snow over the weekend, it's likely going to be gone by early next week as heights quickly recover ahead of the next system. This winter has had all the hallmarks of a clunker, and we're getting to the point of the season where we need nothing short of a stunning reversal. I'm not ready for the Panic Room by any means, but I'm not particularly optimistic either right now.  

If we're comparing to legendary winters, I feel 92-93 is a better fit. Aside from the prolific interior PA snowstorm in Dec '92, winter didn't show up again very much until later in February (very mild January) when we went on a run. But again, that Dec nor'easter and the March '93 superstorm were extreme anomalies within a winter that was generally mild. I just can't compare to 93-94 haha.. that one was wall to wall January into early March. UNV had 30"+ THREE MONTHS in a row (JFM), one of the worst if not the worst cold outbreaks ever in January (-18ºF at PSU with a -36ºF recorded SW of State College one of the mornings) and capped off by a nearly 30" snowstorm in early March. Just an incredible winter, this year we can hardly stay below 32ºF for a high lol.

 

Mag, at this point, and taking into account the current longer range look of a still less than stellar pattern, I do not think any kind of reversal can save the winter as a whole.  Part of the fun of winter is the occasional white  landscape and cold related activities whether skiing or just sitting in front of a fire place.  Your locale is a good example.  You live in the southern half of PA and will always have warm periods in any given winter but unlike the LSV you are not suspect to warm invasions from a coastal that is too close to the LSV to do them good.  Your area should always have a decent snow storm or two every winter just being as far west as you are...getting sloppy seconds in late Feb or March is not a substitute for winter.  Unless the depictions on the LR models are off by quite a bit I think this winter goes down as a dud no matter how much snow we get in March.

8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Surprised no-one brought up the 3k NAM in here, that actually put a stripe of snows through the Sus Valley with the last low on Friday.. which by way is looking like quite a deep low. Could be one of the strongest coastal lows of the season if not the strongest. I don't know if a changeover gets to the Sus Valley in time but the Laurel's and north central are certainly well in play for seeing something and potentially parts of western and central as well as that seems to more of the focus of the Euro/GFS/Canadian (esp western PA). Gonna depend on how rapidly the low deepens and how far inland it tracks. Most guidance seems to have it too far inside for the Sus Valley attm. At any rate, given the disappearance of this weekend wave...this Friday thing might be the best opportunity for snow in the short-medium-long range. 

Winter is quickly fading.  Starting to wonder if we ever recover this year....LR models now not pushing the boundary through at all.

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Despite everything that's happened (or not happened) this winter, I'm actually surprised to see this. Hopefully it comes back...but yeah...

Yea, I was worried about BL temps but not this...thought e had a nice piece of energy carving out a small trough with only one way to go, under us. 

Wow, what looked like  great setup for a low coming under us this weekend is just falling apart in virtual model world.  Head shaker...

20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z EPS & 18z GFS Target the Southern half of PA with a few inches of snow early Sunday.

I think that we are in a good spot for a few inches of snow out of this event.

 

 

If I were not worried about temps I would be gung ho for 4-6" lsv wide.  

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Must be the MDT microclimate, I'm up to 65.2 here. 

The Great heat wave of Winter 2020. LOL  Highs were not to the point of Feb.  20 and 21, 2018 though. 

52 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

The devil has taken over the weather.  In all seriousness, good call @Bubbler86 soon as the sun popped out temp shot up higher than yesterday.    

It only takes me seeing then models under do temps so many times before I start to learn the routine.  LOL.  Looks like MDT is not going to make 60.  Capital City did.  Nam did a good job of seeing the CAD or CAD like differences in the eastern LSV just 5-10 degrees too low across the board. 

20 minutes ago, paweather said:

When does winter start? I am trying to process all of the reasons why winters just haven't produced like they did as a kid. It is insane, really. Going out today no jacket no need for one. We have tracked basically nothing from November until now. And you can look this upcoming weekend already as failure. Maybe another dusting, if that. I look at the long range and everyone on these other forums are trying to be positive for a specific period but there is not much. #SuperStorminMarch. :-) 

I think Sunday (or Sat night)  has potential albeit again still not overly cold so temps are as much a question as the storm itself. 

Just now, canderson said:

56 here. CAD? 

Probably.  I still think MDT gets to 60.  Here is the map showing the North East side of the LSV is still in the 50's and the far east only in the low 60's.

Took a peek at Wunderground map and it appears almost all of the LSV is into or almost into the 60's but eastern areas may fall a couple degrees short of yesterday.  Some spots in Adams, Franklin and Cumberland county making a run for 70.  Several 67's. 

5 minutes ago, pawatch said:

How about that!
@NWSStateCollege
5h
At 3:30 am: Fun fact...It's currently warmer in Bedford, PA (62F) than it is in Miami, FL (61F). #PAwx

 

Winter dropped the ball. 

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Please sign me up for the 6z GFS for the weekend snow chance.

 

 

Can't post the GFS snow map without posting PD III the following weekend.

7 hours ago, Voyager said:

Sorry. My lack of work has been playing on my mind lately and making me a bit ornery...

When one is not productive, one gets depressed. Hopefully it changes VERY soon, because I can't take the boredom much longer...

Sorry to hear about the lack of work.   I bet it is stressful. 

Just now, Voyager said:

I generally stay away from that forum, so I didn't see it, but the depression level was elevating here as well. The models and indecies looked bad, and then, all of a sudden, band, decent pattern Thing is, what's to say they don't flip back to bad again?

I guess I was just defending our guys.  Did not remember anyone go over board.  I enjoy any situation that is far from norm...warm or cold...and I did punt this week from snow chances.

The only person I saw putting the rest of February was psu.  

Blizz plug your ears and shut your eyes.  0Z Nam comes in with low 60's for southern LSV tomorrow..  Upper 50's at MDT.  We might as well go for a 70 if the sun comes out.  Put a stamp on this heat wave.  

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Let’s agree to disagree on JB.

I think that he is great. A lot of major companies pay him for his forecast abilities. He must know a thing or two about forecasting the weather...

I did not mean to make it sound like I was insulting you.  I will not harp on JB.  He is fun to listen to.  

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll ignore your reference to JB and wholeheartedly agree with you about upcoming storm chances. If nothing else it SHOULD be active. 

JB was someone I sort of idolized years (and I mean years) ago. Today is sadly nothing resembling a good met. I for one do not listen to anything he says. 

Yea, JB is probably not to the level of even being allow to post on this board.  He is bad for meteorology.  Accuweather was the king until King Elliott retired and JB started off strong as his main on air replacement but is now shamed  and the poster child for someone who cannot see beyond his snow goggles.

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

There is a growing model consensus for a possible snow event this weekend. 

The boundary storms finally all move through by the end of Friday. The last one still could end as some snow on Friday.

Then colder air moves in for Saturday, which could set the stage for a later Saturday into Sunday snow event. 

The good news is that the EPS is now jumping onboard to this storm idea. 

 

 

Blizz,  thanks for manning the guns and keeping the hope up.  

8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Marking 66 in the books 

If the sun breaks out tomorrow I suspect we get up to similar highs.  69 on my side of the mountain.   

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

65.4 and still rising. 

Temps always exceed expectations, it's the one constant in weather. 

When I was talking about the possible record setting heat this week I was adding 5 degrees on to all model foretasted temps.  When the sun is out the models almost always low ball temps.  68 at the homestead right now. 

50 degrees at my house this Am....36 in Central Florida.  That is one the of the larger odd disparities I have run into in this topsy turvey good for nothing winter. 

28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

That heavy band of WAA snow is definitely a crush job albeit a brief one. A bit over a half inch of large aggregates and some caved roads.

It is making quite a bit further south that the nam or hrrr predicted.