Bubbler86

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, they must just be trying to confuse people with semantics.

The official government records will record all snow from the Fall through the Spring.

That bar chart you posted definitely includes snow outside of met winter so maybe they just keep two different kind of records.  

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The official stats for the National Weather Service have always been for the snow season running from first flakes in the fall to onion snows in the spring. The official snow recording season won’t end until this spring. 

They need to change their wording on their charts and posts then.  They just posted 3 days ago that there were only 10 days left in the season and Harrisburg would end with the 3 worst snowfall total.  It's all semantics.  If we get 30" of snow in March we are counting it.  Lol

52 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Every measurable amount of snow counts in the seasonal total at MDT, whether it comes in October or April, or anytime in between. 

 

Those charts they keep putting out are true met season only so they end next Saturday.  Not sure it matters and we can count anything we want.  A lot of stuff online is actually yearly totals of Jan 1 through Dec 31.  Will be interesting to see if they make a final standing post next Sunday. 

4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

It is very dry today with RH values in the 10-20% range. Even some obs with below zero dewpoints (KMUI has 52º/-1º currently). PA forestry was reporting fine fuels still have some moisture or else CTP probably would have had fire weather products out per their AFD. I'd say tonight would probably be a good star gazing night. 

 

The mountains and surrounding valleys looked brilliant today.  Definitely a great day to have out the binocs.  A bit windier than I had hoped. 

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Since we have nothing to talk about other than home heating ideas, how do we feel about realistic chances for snow before we call this godawful season finished once and for all?

For my yard I'm going to guess I have a 25% chance of measurable snow, and a 10% chance of more than 3". 

Other guesses?

I think we see snow flakes but believe this ends up being top (bottom 5) as to snow rankings for the history of recording keeping at MDT.  The thing is I believe the deal is done in 7 days.  They do not count March snow from my understanding. 

9 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Next few days are gonna be really nice at least. Still stuck with 5 inches of snow for the season so far :x

Depending on whether one considers 2020 the new or old decade we had more snow than that before winter even started twice this decade (pr past decade).

38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I have gas heat.

Like I said earlier it's never once been below 61 this winter. You guys are acting like I live in an igloo.

I guess I need an energy person to walk my house.  I had to keep the heat on this afternoon just to keep it in the mid 60's.

16 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm sure he meant turning it up from his normal setting.  

In this house its either heat or A/C.  I guess we are old. 

1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

My wife would not be happy with anything below 70.  We have a wood stove and once your bones are used to the wood heat, everything else is cold.    

Maybe Itstrainingtimeinmaytown uses a stove as well.  He probably told me as such before.  We use 3 different kinds of heat at different times.  Oil, electric and a propane fireplace.  Keep it around 67.

26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Maytown had the heat on for the 8th night all winter last night. 

I still do not know how you can deal with no heat so many nights.  It would be in the 40's on my house.  

6 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yes...a nice weekend to open windows, except for Maytown he will have the ac set at 40.  I'm going to keep the positive vibes going.  We only have 213 days, 8 hours and 24 minutes until the first day of fall!

Who is this Maytown character?  

18 hours ago, canderson said:

Early next week hitting near 60. Spring has sprung,

In the LSV it's going to be a borderline Chamber of Commerce weekend.  50ish, sunshine and light winds both days.  Maybe a bit breezy late tomorrow.    Time to get out and enjoy it.  

7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You know things are bleak when you wake up early and discover there hasn't been a single post in any of the mid-Atlantic threads for nearly 5 hours. 

In winter Americanwx.com without a snow storm shown on LR models is kind of like a casino that forbids gambling. 

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Wow...20 on the nose when I left home this morning. 

Elevation helped me out this Am.  Of course my 11 is nothing compared to that -37 just south of me.

Coldest morning of the season here...down to 11.

3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea we had several mix events last winter too but we certainly had more that tracked under us as well and most of us scored that mid November snowstorm. We all had a pretty good winter overall last year minus the break it took in December and the first part of January. This winter hasn't even been in the same area code since early Jan. We ran a negative AO in late Jan and most of Feb last year and this year we've run a strongly positive AO with spikes of near record + anomalies in Jan/Feb. That's a huge difference upstairs. Folks like Cashtown had about 50" last winter and MDT had an above average season and this year they're looking at a top 5 least snowy meteorological winter if the 2/27 event doesn't deliver anything there. I've lived here my whole almost 34 years and this one's easily going to be the worst winter I've personally seen unless something big happens late. 

At any rate, yes it's definitely the lack of deep cold air thats a major part of the difference this year. You have a remarkably consistent and strong PV that locks up the arctic air (+AO) among having some combination of unfavorable MJO phases, +EPO, -PNA and it's pretty clear to see why we've had a horrendous storm track to deal with. Storms like to ride that baroclinic boundary between the warm and cold air and we haven't been on the right end of that. And we've had occasional opportunities, but we've just missed out on them.  As for the models handling things, I really haven't personally felt they've been any more horrendous than usual in the mid-long range. There's always digital snow to be chased in the long range. But otherwise, I know I've seen enough cutters at all ranges of the models and in reality to last the rest of the decade this winter. I think there's been some instances of the models trying to change the pattern to a more favorable one in the longer range and thus throwing out storms that are favorable for us only to revert back toward the base pattern we've been in most of the winter.. but we've also had pretty good stretches of them showing (correctly) about as much digital snow as real snow (not very much). Also, that Carolina's/SE VA event got lost a little bit in the mid range but was generally seen on the models pretty far out. You put a Euro D10 snowmap of that on back on the 13th... reality had the swath north of that but the prospect of SE snow was seen well in advance.

We're now seeing the another event that has been showing up in the progs the last few days around the 27th. A very robust 500mb low undercutting higher heights that are forecast to temporarily build over Canada with also what looks to be a shortwave dropping in from Canada and phasing to make a significant system. This overall 500mb setup looks good for a strong storm system that could develop a heavy swath of snow, but the problem right now on the progs is the alignment looks to be a bit west of where we'd want it. The ridge axis in the west is being progged along the coast instead of over C-PA preferred Idaho. We could be in better business if we can progress this east enough to pop the low on the coast. The 0z GFS/Euro run this surface low up through central/western PA, while the Canadian was a bit better for true central having the developing low running up the coastal plain.

Thanks for the run down Mag.  My compare to last year was specifically pointed at the fact that almost all systems (save November) either ran to the west of the LSV or at the very least the 850 came over us.  The thing that keeps that MA LR thread alive this year is the fact that many of these cutters are shown different out in that 10 day range.  My memory from last year was that their true cutter colors were displayed on the models a bit earlier (except the FV3) .  Speaking of the FV3 if that truly is the GFS of this year I think that is the most remarkable thing of all of this....this years GFS has hardly shown anything big in the 7-10 range....

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, we'll get a solid -NAO going just in time for supercells, wedges and bow echos. Just great...

Wedgies, swamp ass?  What the hell are we talking about.  LOL 

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The reality of that is slowly sinking in...

...then again, it's snowing on the Outer Banks right now, so there's that.

Some of my friends in Florida think we get around by dog team and live in Igloos up here so I am never going to hear the end of NC getting snow.  The "you guys must be below freezing for NC to get snow" comments are coming. 

2 minutes ago, pawatch said:

The groundhog said winter was over. 

Bubbler Answered I see.

This winter literally has been the Groundhog Day Experience.

36 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Is there a threat of a storm let alone snow before March?

Late next week there is a chance of snow but does not seem likely right now.  Until then spring type weather after tomorrow with storms going to our west. 

15 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Don't know about anyone else, but I've seen light snow/flurries as far north as Hazleton and White Haven this afternoon...

I think some of that is coming from the front/LES type stuff. 

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

but weve seen +5 AO this year...and it wasnt that bad last year ( Im sure you and your stats gurus can find that # out for us).  That said, the boundary line has reacted accordingly and went further North....so we cut further west (which can work when the AO/NAO are neg enough to keep the boundary closer.  

I can jive with most of what you are suggesting except the boundary lines.   I am not going to go back and look at all the systems from last year but the boundary was very near us much of last year as it has been this year and constantly cutters pushed the 540/850 line well north of us as we had snow to ice to rain situations.  Its the lack of deep cold air that has made such a large difference this year.  We can say it is AO related but I still have an issue in the way the models are handling it.  I feel they were much less likely (except the FV3) to show things cutting under us last year....they were usually showing cutters in the 7-10 day range and that is what happened.  This year the models, including the EC, keep trying to start out with Gulf storms or bowling balls that do go under us only to switch back once they hit that magical 7-8 day mark. So something else I/we are missing in my opinion. 

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Bingo

On a somewhat related point, the Climate site for MDT is now saying they DID reach 35 last Friday meaning the string of 35 or more days is now currently still active and has no specific end date in site.  Incredible....31 days now. 

32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And that's all because of how transient the pattern has been. If it's not perfectly timed, forget about it. SE crew is benefiting from that timing today. 

Nut's image above looks pretty good...it just has no staying power. In one day, out the next...

No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient  pattern we would get lucky every now and then.  The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range.  One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. 

PS-The "pattern" and results from last year were basically the same as the results from this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year. 

Well today's GFS suggests February is going to end with most days in the 50's in the LSV and on and off rain but one feature I thought interesting was the rare "clipper" it shows next weekend.  Beggars cannot be choosers so I will take anything showing a low going under us with cold air near.  History this year continues to suggest anything coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley is too high of a cut risk.