As Blizz mentioned, MDT appears to have broken their no freeze streak. We did with 29 for the low so far here in Rou. 31 down the hill in Waynesboro. "Technically" growing season lives on here. Will have to see how the stuff did when I uncover it in an hour.
I certainly would not bet even $1 on them breaking the barrier. They have burnt me too often. Dews drop into the teens on the rgem. A big part of the difference as you suggested.
The 3K goes out of its way to show Harrisburg not going below 32/33. LOL. Rgem is much colder than anything else. Mid 20's for many. HRRR is low 30's. Fv3 upper 20's except Harrisburg. Do not recall so many models showing the HIA.
The GFS has persistently being running a major hurricane up the southern peninsula of Florida...which would eventually have soaking rains implications for us as a system in the Midwest is blocked by the ridge between the hurricane and itself and spreads several soaking rain (some snow far north) sessions over us. Still 9-10 days out but a fairly enthusiastic chance of drought denting as to consistency in runs. CMC has a more convoluted, less strong cane scenario which is as likely as anything but moisture coming north from the SE is the key for us whether a major cane or not.
We are planning on covering our marigolds tonight in hopes of getting them to Thanksgiving, they look so good right now. With no freezing here yet we are still harvesting peppers, raspberry's and strawberries. Bonus veggies and fruits. LOL.
Up to 68 here. Looks like HGR and THV have hit at least 70. The Dulles's, BWI's and DCA's are really over achieving in soring into the mid to upper 70's. 3-5 over zones.
NWS Station 24 Hour Precip roundup. Not many solid rain chances in the near to mid term. BUT the yard cutting down the mountain is going to be crazy the next 2-3 days. The grass down there is going to grow fast.
IPT-.45
LNS-.42
MUI-.40
AOO-.36
HGR-.29
THV-.28
MDT-.24
CXY-.23