Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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I personally think the "PV" coming from N Central Canada is more of an issue than NS energy but that is an issue as to why it is not turning sooner. That GFS should have droped at least 6-12" over the LSV.
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This 500H look with a low off the Va Capes should have pulled precip and forcing back into the LSV IMO so this run is perfectly fine with me in literals....I do not like that the low waited to it got well off the coast to turn.
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The LSV should be getting walloped at this point. Something is not right there.
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We would not have asked for a better position of that low when off the VA Capes but there is no phase, and nothing to keep it going due north so we lose it on the GFS. The dry air is killer. What it is NOT is a Miller A though which is unfortunate.
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Low off VA capes but dry air is keeping the precip shield very limited.
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Snow on my doorstep Wed AM.
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GFS looks more like the NAM (good IMO) through 84. Less confluence to the north so a possible earlier turn.
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The highs at MDT on the Icon are in the mid teens for Wed and Thur next week. Those temps are right in the ball part for possible max min records at MDT.
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Did Germany invade England?
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You picked the NAM to show that and the 84 hr NAM is a lot more enticing than the regem was. The rrem had suppression written on it IMO. PS-You add a head and two lines for feet to that "arrow" and it could be a squiggly man enjoying a vacation in Bermuda!
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He did well on the one storm in January.
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Yea, that was the phase possibly before...and still is...but this entire situation is 1) Way too far out to assume good or bad 2) too much about timing on some of the progs. The UK's depiction was a much more nature major snow storm. There was a phase but we would have scored big without it.
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It is there an hour ago, amwx has been doing weird things if using the web site via mobile. You go back and it looks like you did not submit a post.
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I saw one prog, forget which one, which suggests someone may hit 70. Just looked at the HRRR and it is low to mid 60's.
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GEPS was quite bad for the 20th Probably the worst of any models runs I have seen today. A nothing bagger.
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It has climbed to 36 here. 9 degrees in 2-2.5 hours. The damn has broken.
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Temp rising fast here now. Up 4 degrees in 45 min. 33 with plain rain. I am going to see over 6" of snow washed away this week between the two snows and ensuing warmth behind them.
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You called this yesterday when we were discussing Canderson's party re: if it fell fast enough it would still stick though I am not sure many envisioned what happened today. Here is last nights rgem 2M map for 1PM today
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18Z runs of models last night showed sloppy snow with temps in the low to mid 30's. Not below freezing like we actually ended up with. It was snowing here at 27 which is crazy vs. what was progged. MDT is down to 30.
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There is really not much of a phase. It is a Miller A that is faster than the UK and scoots away from the North East. Very little snow in southern NY and nothing north. We talked about this a couple days ago, a storm in the Panhandle of Florida is good with something to tug it but otherwise a big risk for us.
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I bet there is a microclimate every 10-15 miles out where you live!
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5-6 days away still. Not sure news outlets really hype too much yet anyway.
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I am on the west side of the South Mountain chain about 1/3 of the way up toward Pen Mar park so not really a valley at all here, I very often go east via Blue Ridge Summit and run into completely different weather just a few miles from my house as I get to the other side of the small range. We do not do CAD hardly at all here. So yes very different areas. I am more like Atommixx though a warm version of it.
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I get it every time. Good on fries, burgers, broccoli.
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Red Robin...Yummmmmm
