Bubbler86

As MJS and I posted earlier, there could some temp records challenged this weekend. Thought I would lay them out again as I see it. Daily Max Different suites have daily highs getting within 5 degrees of records Friday (65), Sat (64) and Sun (62). Friday seems the least likeliest right now. The Sat/Sun thing could be the somewhat rare two for one record as Sat's highs may happen at 11:59PM. If it is 65 at that point, it would break both the Sat and Sun records over the course of a minute. But as of now the mostly likely of these to be broken is still Sunday as most models keep the Sat temps under the threshold. Daily Min On the daily min side, the record for Friday is 41 and Saturday it is 44. Just going by this AM's numerical predictions, both of those numbers are at great risk of being topped with the temps never leaving the mid 40's on Friday and upper 40's on Saturday.

The reasoning behind saying it could get exciting is that the lsv really needed a small bump north to remove itself from the outer periphery. No reason to get excited by one outlier run....unfortunately the 6z falls back in line with the others.

0Z GFS. MA Mauler. Digging even better this run. Just a tad more North on the transfer and its going to get exciting.

Just model discussion, not a forecast....I think it's tricky with the slightly delayed frontal passage. Farther north is ok as long as it is a bit farther east. But as modeled there is a chance of some decent snow maxes in the transition zone. With the cmc not even acknowledging a formation at that time, it's still suspect though the icon defintely tipped its hat to the gfs at 18z.

There is our Jan 3rd precious again...starting off warm though its definitely going to snow over some of the LSV on this run.

Yea, definitely a soft top 5 hot month. 5 days in the 60's so far....none in the 70's. Just no artic intrusions as you mentioned.

The "winter memories" are taking a hit over here as well. We have windows and doors open right now...to avoid having to put the A/C on.

I still contend we have not been all that warm. It may go down as one of the top 5 warmest but it sort of nickeled and dimed its way there. Plenty of very cold nights.

Large changes by the 18Z Icon. A just miss (LSV) with a low forming Sunday night. With the GFS also being close, Jan 3rd is still not closed.

What did your zone say? I think my said 47-49ish. I know MDT said 46-47.

Topped out at 58 here. Today may be the warmest day in a while. Maybe Sunday....Sat not looking so warm at this point.

Yea, no wind meant the winter Version of a Chamber of Commerce day. MDT got to 54 or 55. The zone forecasts were well under done but I figured that was coming when I looked last night.

57 here. Plenty of 60's on the wundermap.

True. If that was your intended analogy.

They are a comeback team.

Plus it's only January 11 on that map. Not even have way through met winter.

Almost high noon. Down in MRB where it's sunny and 53. Home therm says 50.

And post about other weather stuff, abnormalities and such, as needed without disdain from the crowd. Weather...it's the gift that keeps on giving all through out the year.

Thanks, I did not do an exhaustive search vs. scanned. I knew we had the Dec day.

Dec 27th has a high of 59 and several days where the highs are 60-63. Two days in Feb where it has not reached 60.

Basically no chance of MDT breaking a record today. That stands as the warmest ever recorded temp in Dec (tied) of 75 in 1984. There are some days in Dec where the records are closer to what the HRRR is showing today in the low to mid 50's. MDT does have two days with record highs this month in the 16th and 17th.

I had some opinions on the AM models, not all bad, but did not post because there seems to be a prevalent "only post if its good news" trend lately...at least for models.

You got the Christmas Screw job. Left your area and it snowed.

Up until the last year or two, the GFS/Fv3 always had something for us as well. Mostly digital only and eventually fleeting. Now the GFS is like the voice of reason. Ha.