Bubbler86

Thanks. It does seem doubtful that the Nam scores a total coup here. Preponderance of "evidence" against it. So even if this ends up being a Short Pump winner and DCA gets little to nothing, the GFS still gets some credit for being consistent in really being the only model to even show that up until the last 48 hours I believe. The Euro had very interest in significant snow even at 0Z this AM. I suspect the Nam folds in a few hours. (Edit-CMC also showed Sig Snow at around the same time as the GFS but then backed off it on the next run.)

Ah, for some reason I was thinking 6PM. Thanks

Is that an 18Z Euro comment?

I have seen a trend recently of people posting simulated radar instead of the actual precip maps? Is that something we are doing this year? Not being sarcastic just curious as it has happened here and other forums quite a bit. The simulated radar shows virga I believe.

How will people rank this if the middle of the road solutions are correct? More amped than the Nam but just 4-6 for any maxes.

Time for @paweather to cash in on his Pivotal membership and give some 18Z Euro updates. The RAP is quite a bit South of the GFS....but much more amped than the Nam and Euro.

I just took a random sample from Fairfax county, during the height of the storm, and its real close. Rates would help but they get to freezing 700-800.

Throw away the Nam, Euro, and Icon. All American needs is the HRRR and GFS.

One thing the N VA area needs to watch is changeover issues. Its just not that cold.

Ground truth for us is not much different but DCA is a lot different. MA forum should go bonkers.

GFS is north through 36

18Z Nam still does not care what the GFS is showing. It bent to allow a weak disturbance (a few runs ago) but is still a total southern slider. Tidewater sees a little rain on its way by to the south.

Agreed. Any storm that forms in the TN Valley is crap shot at best for pin pointing more than a day or two out.

HRRR is a lot like the 12Z GFS. GFS gaining momentum for the slam dunk win over the EC and Nam. It's a bit if a disaster for the far Eastern Tidewater folks and a sign of hope for N VA.

This is a PA forum but will comment that my Cav's were going to be playing in the inaugural Fenway bowl so just the fact that you guys got to play makes me jealous. I was looking forward to UVA being a trivia answer....they do not get much respect and trivia answers are something.

That was probably the game (the pick).

He finished it with 'It's not my decision'. I rolled my eyes.

Sorry man. I saw a Franklin interview, last evening, where he was talking about the whys of burning Red Shirts and his way of broaching the subject was cringe worthy as to the lack of confidence coming from him.

The Euro is deeper and more "energetic" than the Icon, but the low positions, if you follow the complete path of the storm, are about as close as you can get in a system 5 days away. Example below of hour 132. The Euro is a classic Chattanooga Choo Choo with reformation on the coast.

Also, one of my favorites, the storm will pull down air from Canada.

That is the thing, though. GFS is seemingly on its own with this scenario of a foot or more. Rgem/CMC have somewhat similar qpf amounts but a warmer column so half the snow. Do not have access to the 6Z Euro. Icon and Nam do not separate the two SLP's to do much of anything N MA wise. Hwrf has some qpf but again, warmer.

Close to 20" in South Central VA through the next 7 days of the GFS. I will take the under on that.

Lots of virga apparently. The land truth only shows snow in the far S/E vs. that sim radar shot.

We have had about 1/2" the last 12 hours.

Take it or leave it, but the Icon is very interesting for late week. A Chattanooga Choo Choo. LSV wise, almost perfect trough placement for land based Miller A scenario.