Bubbler86

Definitely, both possibilities. But can you ignore the GFS and the Euro? If they do not budge at 18Z, I am not sure how you can.

If not for the GFS and a bit of the Euro, we would probably not even be talking about this as the rest of the modeling is a nothing burger for PA. (Unless someone wanted to do some actually Met work and not model reading like I am doing today!)

18Z HRRR not really doing much for PA still.

If I were CTP, I would definitely do advisories for the S and SE sides of Adams, York and Lancaster considering the timing of back to work.

That is what I read in MA. Along with the NAM. A singular entity replacing them.

It's a trender I think. Not great for qpf but it sometimes does well with spotting changes. Apparently it's being retired.

17z....more of a central VA crusher. Basically no snow in PA through the 18 hour run.

The snow map is pretty sparse with mixing near by and the progressive natural of the speed/track, but way too specific for worry this far out.

Which was stolen from Weathermodels.com. LOL.

Boom!

Euro @96, the @Superstorm system beginning to take shape in the TN Valley.

Southern parts of border counties (east) are getting close to WSW level.

Yep, getting closer to MU! LOL. Philly gets jacked by the Euro Kuch map.

Total qpf for Cashtown

VERY slight tick north in shield at 24 (for PA Concerns) .

Still in the low to mid 40's as we go into night (Euro). SLP is slightly north at 12.

@paweather, get your Euro F5 key pressing...refresh, refresh, refresh, LOL

If one always took the negative route to snow possibilities, they would be right far more than wrong...in an average winter.

You eating a big bag of GFS?

Not sure if it was mentioned but MDT set (or tied) Min Max records on both Dec 30 and 31.

It's only 54 over here. A bit of turn around today. No sun here.

MDT record today is 62 in 2000.

Speaking of that, this post from PSU in the MA is some good info as the flow really is backing. Seeing this WV loops really affirms that there is a big storm coming for someone (as long as it gets far enough north into the cold sector) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv-mid The WV loop is a thing of beauty. The flow is really backing in the TN valley. This has a classic look for the mid Atlantic! Btw I still like to look at the WV sometimes just to get a feel for the flow. I’ll never forget being in the psu weather center the day before the Jan 2000 storm trying to argue with the meteorologists on duty that it was clear from the WV and IR that the mid and upper levels were way more amplified and the flow was backing much more than any of the nwp was showing over the Miss Valley. They were pretty dismissive…”it’s only 24 hours, the models would be picking up on it” lol

CMC continues your hope for late week! That is something.

GFs sim radar has virga all the way up into NY. Fairly extreme difference between it and the actual qpf predicted.