That Gulf low on the GFS, for the 16th, coincides with what had been advertised as a possible period to watch on the GEFS as well as a similar but less elongated look on the 12Z Op. The timing does not work on the OP today because the spin up is too early and runs into the departing high/ridge as well as a wave that sort of represents a 50/50 low, so it is shunted out. But cold and dry is not a forgone conclusion.