Bubbler86

Yea, that was my wonderment. Very small and very oblong. But thanks for the confirmation. Not sure what to make of it look less clean that 12z 84 which would be 72 now.

Thanks. Not sure if I consider that a full close off despite that small area in the middle. Maybe someone who knows more than me could opine as usually a close off is a little more clean. Larger, more circular.

Check out the upper dynamics 500 height and vertical velocity map.

Next is....say it.....say it.....the icon. Lol

Is it closed off at 500? Asking because I am not looking on my phone.

@Itstrainingtime, 7 from the Tide enter the transfer portal a day after losing the title game? Funky. Like a jail break.

Still 16 here. Think it will sit there or go down a degree but probably close to low for the night.

Your final sentence is good advice. My comment was, as usual, based on current modeling and not a forecast or opinion. Highs in the upper teens before a potential miller a is sweet to dream about.

I was 3-4 lower than you last night so turn about time now. I doubt I get much lower tonight. I think I get over 50 tomorrow.

When the temps are in the low 30's in NC, prior to a Miller A (assuming best case), we are in for a fantastic situation.

That is classic for an extreme event. So rare to see that really happen recently.

16 here. HRRR has the temps holding within a degree or two of this and unbelievable staying above freezing tomorrow night.

Not sure this will mean anything to people here but I recently found out that one of the people that helped us "guide" the Jan 25, 2000 snow storm home, providing excellent analysis in model failures at that time , passed away 7 years ago. The storm was actually called the Scott Simard storm at that point (in the weather community). Scott was a fiery but brilliant weather tactician. He may have posted here (NE side) for a while under a pseudonym. Since this storm is being talked about so much, though it worth giving him a shout out. https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/wickedlocal-journalnewsind/name/scott-simard-obituary?id=9415810

I think this is a great point in the Jan 2000 surprised a lot of high population areas but in reality it much more limited in its runup and eventual areas it affected vs a March Superstorm '93 setup. Even the night before the Jan 2000 surprise storm, though weenies on #newx thought (knew) they had the storm pegged, models were limiting the potential issues down to NC. Accumulation from the Jan 25, 2000 surprise storm below. Note the quick cut off in the western half of PA. That storm is forever in the snow weenies hall of fame but without the Surprise component, its would not be at all considered on the level of a March '93. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/NJSnow-25Jan00.png

I saw a note on the MA board from a met, that the GFS is upgraded from the GEFS. That does not explain differences in track as much as why it may be different. With that said, we have seen a lot of times where the OP was not at all the middle of the road solution with the ensembles. The OP is a higher resolution as well. That most know and is mentioned but thought I would add here.

These member outputs are a good reminder to both not worry too much about inland but also not to broadcast that 2 feet is imminent. LOL.

Thanks for posting these maps.

I did not even look at the MA but I am guessing there are some JI like posts there.

Yea, it closes off and goes negative a bit too early for the LSV and near group. It's a Tim special.

Also this....grabbed from MA. Would be a better look for the eastern LSV vs Op.

Thanks, average wise probably a tad east of the op but still nothing there to debunk the Op.

It will be on the MA board pretty quickly. Doubt is an issue if you copy over with credit.

I do not get it to the degree that you want. I am a cheapo. All I can see is the freebie's. I think Blizz gets it somehow. And maybe Losetoa. Maybe anotherman?

Going to chip in here and say your post is spot on. I do not see the off runs but the change in the Euro from yesterday's 12Z and 0Z run, to today's 12Z run is crazy. And its not just ground truth snow, its everything including the 500mb maps, spacing and a MUCH slower evolution. The SLP was 100-200 miles off the SE coast at 18Z Sunday, on the Euro 24 hours ago, now it is on the GA/AL line. So one more drastic push west ala the Gem is certainly not a stretch. Just a slight change in the trough.

2PM and only 20 degrees here. Impressive. Saw a note from Tim, on the Pitt board, that resonated with me. Imagine getting a 1-2 foot base of snow and a cold pattern does really set in as many models depict. Real winter!