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Bubbler86

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Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    That is actually quite "high" for a TV met call this early in the progression. That is an easy win if it happened.
  2. Bubbler86
    I think that 60 is blowing through downtown Harrisburg.
  3. Bubbler86
    I see it is a sort of Miller B like scenario but you are right, this is not your typical coastal takes over and goes into Bomb mode. The modeling shows this as being a mess with a new low that is captured. There is also the issue of the ULL 850 and 500 level energy that does not transfer completely at first.
  4. Bubbler86
    Post of the day.
  5. Bubbler86
    We tossed the Nam about an hour ago. It's GFS or bust right now. I get the finger though and Lanco/York are not going to like it.
  6. Bubbler86
    Speaking of this, the 18Z GFS still has two surface reflections (at least) per this panel...but also some darn heavy snow in there. Note the mix poking up into S/W PA from the inland reflection which is supported by the ULL.
  7. Bubbler86
    Consider this a board cheer up after the Nam. Not sure I trust TT Accum graphics but its what I have in front of me. Reminder that the Icon does not show any Sleet or Frz in it's surface panels. Its snow or rain, that's it.
  8. Bubbler86
    Icon trended west with the eventual track as well. More of a thump than the Nam but it goes from Winchester, To Rouzerville, then Bunions before lifting out of PA.
  9. Bubbler86
    Yea, I see it is more south at the Surface. 850's are similar though.
  10. Bubbler86
    It's a board hug moment. Storm cancel for everyone (Model PBP not forecast).
  11. Bubbler86
    Yep. What was once a Miler A like Gulf coast run went to the inland SLP punching well up into the Lower Ohio Valley before a real transfer starts. Warm surges Northward with it. 850 low scouring many out at hour 81. The Nam out of range gang gets one for their side with this change.
  12. Bubbler86
    It is quite a bit different in that it holds on to the inland slp to a higher latitude which puts in more in line with the GFS depiction. This allows the ULL features to get much farther north which is, as you said, not good. 850 low is over S PA which means it's "over" for south PA at that point.
  13. Bubbler86
    Nam is running North of its previous 18Z position as of hour 69. It's the state of Alabama difference.
  14. Bubbler86
    Nam very similar SLP wise at 39. 12Z showed an "L" in Mexico but the real SLP was in East Texas and still is.
  15. Bubbler86
    Yea, after those days with highs in the low 20's, this does feel warm.
  16. Bubbler86
    Its in the 50's over in Western Franklin County. So not too bad here. Nice to get out. Not all guidance ticket East but the Euro kept us in the big dog game. Nam is running.
  17. Bubbler86
    47 here. T-Shirt time.
  18. Bubbler86
    I would need a Met to sign off on my model interpretation but I am fairly sure it is dual barrel when down in the South east. The low transfers but seems to maintain a reflection post transfer as it moves North East.
  19. Bubbler86
    Just too close verbatim.
  20. Bubbler86
    It's farther South and East than the GFS and GEM which is great.
  21. Bubbler86
    Yea, if I can stay on the NW side of the Surface presentation I should hold a bit longer even if just sleet/frz vs. plain rain. But its really close. I did not see a 93 map but you said it was showing the lowest pressure over Frederick. I think I would be changed if so.
  22. Bubbler86
    Look at the 2M map. The temps are failing way away from the "L" because the low is really an elongated dual barrel that is much farther West than the L it focused on for that panel. Again, my interpretation. Others may have their own. Look at this 850 map. Low is well west at 90.
  23. Bubbler86
    As long as we have two areas of LP, if I am right, we have to pay attention to the left one as it will break the hearts of people who are focused on the right one.....basically it's one larger area of LP so 850's and surface will fail well inland even though the low "appears" to be way over the Chessy.
  24. Bubbler86
    So I propose that instead of moving from Chessy to Frederick then NJ, its still dual barrel and the model is just bouncing around to the lowest pressure. See snip below with Low 2 pointed out.
  25. Bubbler86
    The SLP does not appear to make it up to you though the limited Euro maps but it still gets pretty windy Harrisburg way. Do not see surface winds by over 50 just above.
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