Bubbler86

My Picks PSU 31-Boise 27. Good Karma pick for the group. I think Boise is underrated (but who knows how they show on this stage). Closed roof/indoor game. Texas 29- ASU 19 Roof Closed I believe. Oregon 44-OSU 20 Outdoor game...maybe the only one. ND 34-GA 20 Closed roof stadium. (UMass scored 21 on GA and GA Tech dropped 40+ on them just in the last 2 months)

I have been informally tracking this a bit and the Rgem/CMC frequently out performs most other suites when it comes to forecasting radiationally cooling. Not overly helpful in precip situations but it is the go to for us when the situation is right. It is often "too cold" but much closer to reality than not.

From the 0Z EC to the 12Z, the temp on the morning of 1/11 went from -8 at Harrisburg to 17.

The closer I look at the EC, it seems more like a Miler B/Transfer. SLP forming in South Virginia on panel 168.

Yea, I had edited my post that Kuch would be high. I saw a WB map but was not going to quote that. It was 2-4" higher than this map.

EC looked like a big dog was coming in but also dampened out/held steady vs. deepening...still a decent event this run. 3-5" for southern LSV on 10-1. Kuch surely higher. A little more to the west and less North.

Yea, basically just model disco going on from me. That is the fun part sometimes. Why did a prog do something.

A post on the MA forum hit the nail on the head with the entire run of the 12Z GFS except the southern slider well into the 300's, no room for amplification. The storm on the 6th has a retrearting High and another low boxing it in our system with nothing for it to do except slowly die off.

For today's runs, that is the 9th re: the piece of energy that rides in similar to a clipper. I did not look into it too much but runs into confluence/or similar and can never develop. For later, we are all in the game when talking about a situation over 7 days from now :-).

GFS goes on to have a boundary rider a few days later but it also dampens it with only light snow for western parts of this forum. The area of LP hangs around just to our south but never produces precip in the LSV. GEM also dampening the 6th low (not fully cutting like some of the comments elsewhere, there are two areas of lowest pressure) so that is the trend here. Not enough space for amplification especially with it trying to attack a surface high to its SE.

12Z GFS basically continues to dampen it out over here though it does snow a little. The thing about the timing on this, first day back for kids and a lot of adults, makes it extra important per se.

Gust of 44 here. MDT on the 30's board as to gusts, AOO gusting into the 40's.

The storms and rumors are always an interesting aspect of the model watching but I will admit that when it comes to the artic outbreak shown on the 280+ Euro OP, I have PTSD as to posting any of those maps because it seems we have yearly bouts with blocking lining up correctly to pour the coldest of cold down into the US (on the GFS previous since the Euro op has not gone out this far until this year but plenty of ensemble members as well). Recently they have all been 10+ days out and the moderation march ends up with a much less severe cold shot in reality. Eventually it will happen in some form but hard to bite on it again.

48 this AM with only .05" of additional rain last night. On the subject of anomalous weather, MDT has already recorded a 59 or 60 today and their current low of 51/52 is 8 or 9 degrees above the Max Min for the date though Meso's suggest they will be able to get down below the current record of 43 before midnight tonight.

Just for fun the 18Z GFS Jan 6th/7th Miller A. For people really into the science, this is literally just for fun.

It got up to 72 in our place so the AC is booming. Today is one of the warmer winter days I have experienced in the last 6 years.

Still 65 here after a high of 67. Even MDT managed to get well into the 60's. As someone else pointed out, today would be a record on many Dec days.

18Z GFS hints at Bermuda Miller B for Tue as well. Leaves the LSV with sparse precip for NYE. But drawing interest for Jan 6th-7th with a more enhanced push of pressure from our NE.

RIP Jimmy Carter . A lot of important people passing away lately.

Early summer in some cases. Some models have the transfer taking place near Bermuda and dry here. If we have to deal with warm days, let them be on weekends.

Some 68-70's on wu now.....66 in rou.

That phrase storms and rumors of storms is a Joe B/Elliot Abrams things in my memory.

The Joe B/Blizz storms and rumors of storms certainly applies to the Jan 6th and on period. Just need to get it several days closer to really see some model consistency to try and "parse" more details.

GFS still has cutter with front end frozen to start off the second week of January. Not present on GEM. Up to 64 here now. Did not know we would be getting mid-upper 60's today. I was forecasting 61-63.

Some of the models started backing off the rains 24-48 hours ago but here is the 12Z Thur GFS for time period 90 min from now. Drastic difference vs. radar as of now.