Bubbler86

Mt Joy gave a good wet bulb temp earlier. I am hoping for 1-2 degree drop. Its only 22 here still. Holding pretty good.

It looks great. Still hoping for 4" though not sure how much will be gone tomorrow AM.

MA ob's reporting little to no virga though its drier here so may be a bit before ground flakes when it gets up this far.

Bolded is an important point but not much to explain why Wxbell is higher than TT at the transition zone other than individual algorithms on each suite. Wxbell is the only map I can find that has York City over 4" using 12Z GFS data. Not saying Pivotal is right but Wxbell should not be higher than TT with the same data when the surface maps show sleet/frz will be part of the event.

Inland low is in Central TN right now per the SPC pressure maps.

If you look at the current temps, its already above freezing (surface) at the Jersey Shore including some 40's. Have to keep those easterly's away. Maybe Richmond did not. 850 line looks like it is near Richmond right now.

21/9 here.

It would be a nowcasting call like LWX did. Maybe under the premise that even though we lose 850's, there would be a lot more FRZ or Sleet than depicted on models.

That was a big raise this way. 5-8" LOL No WSW.

It's important to note that each site can be drastically different. Two people could be looking at the same model and say 'What is he talking about' depending which site they are looking on. Take York City today. Wxbell has 4-4.5", TT has 3-4", and Pivotal has under 3".

Just watched a video, from 7 years ago, where Ryan Maue explains how the Euro snow maps are done on Wxbell. He did not broach GFS. He said Euro output includes sleet AND Frz and he has an algorithm that attempts to back out the liquid equivalent. So this may explain why Wxbell maps are so different from TT and Pivotal re: each uses their own method. Here is TT for the 12Z GFS and its definitely lower in some areas despite including sleet. Important to know for model PBP. TT also uses the "SLR " which is explained by Ryan also below. Today's 12Z GFS on TT

Drought cancel! LOL. If this was all snow, Rou'ville would be hurting. You would be pushing 20" and I would be 6-8". LOL. Sharp cutoff.

HRRR has over 1" of rain for you. Dry slot is to your west. Crazy.

HRRR has 5 hours of moderate or better snow at MDT. So if it could get to 1" an hour average we could have an over producer there. Latest is 2-5 for most of the LSV with the ridges/somewhat higher ground in Western Cumberland going 5-6 it appears. Lots of rain East of the Susq and well north.

That is a fair call.

Still some weird stuff with the forum. Check out what it shows Training posting on as to a thread

Going to be a tough measure this go around. Probably dark when the transition begins.

Yea, it would be great if it was in the mid teens when it started as to keep the plain rain at bay.

You are near MDT and only have a point and click of 1-3"? Personally I would say 3.8" for MDT if I was forecasting. Surprised they do not go 2-4 for you.

We are up 15 from the low. 18 with a low of 3. Pretty expected I think. Mid 20's to upper 20's when the snow gets here and maybe some drop when it moistens the column.

Wow, a scolding and lecture. Someone got up on the wrong side of the barometer.

Yea, it definitely trended back to be close to other models.

I think the Nams line up with the other models fairly well right now as to low progression. Just about an 1" less for us. I ran through all the less common Meso's and 2-4" for the LSV and near counties seems to be the primary thought with almost everything 12Z so far. HRRR is more like 3-5".

13/4

Yea, will be interesting nowcasting. I think the most snow friendly models are going 6-7 hours. If the real low level holds longer than it would mean more frz. Hrrr has 6 hours of plain rain before the dry slot gets here.