Bubbler86

I think the Nam had the track going over the central and western half of PA from the very start...or close to it. Pivotal goes back to 12Z Friday and the Low comes into PA on the Fulton/Franklin county line. But yea, the Nam was too warm in the UL's to start. I think the Nam was the only model to predict sleet in Erie but not 100% sure. Nam underestimated the sleet in lieu of too much Frz though.

It does seem to happen every year. I would not notice it that much were it not for the constant 'Why are we even talking about the Nam' I see on the MA board. I should not look there when the Nam is showing something unfavorable as I know what I am going to see and I let it irritate me. But yes, this seems to be a yearly thing as to having a model, Nam or no, that is on it's own and basically looked at as an outlier and assumed it cannot be right...and yet it is more than was expected. I did see you guys are still getting a decent amount of snow even now.

25 here right now. We ended up getting to 33 for a bit but then turned back downwards. Being on the west side of South Mountain did well for me this time.

Fingers crossed that is the tried and true side, like we talked about last night, and any weaknesses are already known and fixed since we get high wind from that direction so often.

The 6Z GFS looks like someone continuously digging a spoon into soup trying to get that last Matzo ball but having it fall off each time the spoon heads back up. Some 3-4 instances where a S/W dig down into the S/E US only to miss the timing with a Northern S/W and the ball falls off the spoon. It repeats this over and over. I suspect one of the next few runs finally sees that ball stay on the spoon and we are game on. LOL.

Hopefully we have more to track over the next 2-4 weeks and they get a redemption shot.

But how are the bunions? LOL.

LOL. I was typing up the same thing as you were. Nothing did perfect. They all added value and data to making the right forecast. I really frown on people casting off a model because it does not show what they want.

I think if one looked back it would see each model got different aspects of the system right. It seems the Nam did better synoptically/forecasting the large scale dry slots and eventually track of the low, but other models had a better handle on the initial slug of snow over us. I think the best thing is to take them all seriously and try to use all the data to make sense of how one things will play out or has played out in the past.

Nothing here right now but my car is covered again so we got a good 1/2" at some point this AM.

I forget which one as well but yea something I was looking at showed that Rain + getting up to you from MD.

Yea, when the storm first got into the Nam's range of 84, it showed what most here PA, MD, VA did not want and as usual there was a lot of "the Nam is out of range" talk. This happens every year. Sometimes the Nam screws up royally but it seems to be that outside being low on snow totals to start (re too much warm intrusion in the UL's), it did quite good at foretelling the important parts of the storm.

The Nam's snow maps the last few runs were closer to reality but the 1-2" it showed for the LSV initially busted low. Here is 6Z yesterday, basically 24 hours ago, and it was not too bad. I am guessing overall it did the best as most other models understated the warm intrusion and dry slot.

That is crazy low for you but reminds me of the model runs with 5 different levels of accums over Adams.

Just browsed some other forums and saw mention that it is sleeting in Erie. Prop's to the app running former primary for putting its mark on this one.

Surprised it has been so bad tonight. On the snow thing, those one or two 3" measurements in Waynesboro are a bit suspect. Wonder if they corrected that?

Just had another gust to 40. Coming out of the East and hitting a different side of the house, than normal, is making for some strange and unsettling sounds. Really surprised we still have power.

Thanks, makes me feel a bit better. Just up the hill from me. Surprised they are that high but if they held snow for an extra 30-45 min, that would have given them 1-2 more" at the rate it was coming down. It was sleeting so hard that I had to do my driveway again to get it off.

It's really blowing here. We are almost into the dry slot near the low. Sustained is around 30 here as well.

High gust so far was 40 mph around 830pm.

Torn between getting one more TD I guess.

Up to 28 here. Hrrr has the eastern lsv getting into the 40's briefly before pulling in colder air on the back side of the low. No sun should limit the pack damage. That heavy rain though

Big Ben"s final drive?

Severe thunderstorm warning south of us.

Snow pack protection. Beef it up. Lol