Bubbler86

540 in VA is a lot better for us than the depicts with it in the Carolinas.

On the kicker discussion, which is also raging in the ma forum, what I do not get is what people would expect to happen if it was not there? I see the kicker/ns energy as the very thing that could capture this low (whether one believes if is forming on the wrong boundary or not.). I think the Gfs depiction seems quite clear in that it is forming energy on the boundary which is so very far south next week due to the advancing tpv. Without that NS wave I feel like whatever forms would be a fast moving wave that has little in the way of northward adjustment. This is for open convo, I could be totally wrong, but I have never heard the word kicker in these forums more than the last 24 hours. It seems to be a panacea to try and explain away bad model runs.

Both of them.

Back then we did not have "constant rumors" of the great pattern since our childhood. Sometimes the Interwebs take away some of the enjoyment. Growing up a 2-4" snow used to be fun and an event, now it is often a "what if'.

Thanks!

I personally agree with this assertion in why the GFS should have shown more precip back over and into the 500 low. And his other points are valid but that is not what the GFS did so there has to be a reason the shuttered the entire southern complex well into the ocean. I fear it was the influence from a stronger higher to the NW combined with a lagging NS.

The winds are going to blow in some good model runs.

When the TPV/High decides to allow it.

Is that the same Nike Nico Harrison used to work for? I think Pelinka might have said that same phrase to Nico.

I meant for "others". Looking for advice! LOL. The Icon does not even break me out of the 40's while some other progs are 60's.

More importantly, shorts tomorrow?

I am just hoping for some combination of that high to be more like the UK or Icon (UK weaker/Icon displaced west) to allow that area of energy to the south (generous calling it a low at that point, it is in the 1010's) to feel the NS wave coming before it is so far off the coast. If the 540 line is down into SC and the NS wave is lagging, she is going get out into the ocean.

Nothing like needing a quick phase with a low 200 miles off GA to inspire confidence! LOL. Bring back the 12Z UK!

(Just my opinion) This is the point the NS trough/wave starts to affect the storm and that is really late for a massive, east coast snow storm. Note that it is a dual barrel low at this point with one area off the VA Capes and one area off GA. On the next frame the lowest area of pressure switches to the north side in response to the NS. The low does bomb out as it phases over the Flemish Cap area.

I personally do not think the NS energy has any doing in pushing that storm over Florida. If anything it is acting to pull the storm back as without it, the low exits Florida and goes east much more quickly. I saw another post in the MA thread which is spot on in my opinion, the thermal boundary which we will call the end of the High pressures influence is what is taking that low off the coast in Florida or GA. I personally think we need the HP and respective influence to back off some as to the break down of the Gfs. I still contend that played out exactly the GFS did, we see heavy snow when the low is off the Va Capes...because that very weak NS energy is there to convey it.

I actually think the it is the high coming from the N Central states causing the issue.

I personally think the "PV" coming from N Central Canada is more of an issue than NS energy but that is an issue as to why it is not turning sooner. That GFS should have droped at least 6-12" over the LSV.

This 500H look with a low off the Va Capes should have pulled precip and forcing back into the LSV IMO so this run is perfectly fine with me in literals....I do not like that the low waited to it got well off the coast to turn.

The LSV should be getting walloped at this point. Something is not right there.

We would not have asked for a better position of that low when off the VA Capes but there is no phase, and nothing to keep it going due north so we lose it on the GFS. The dry air is killer. What it is NOT is a Miller A though which is unfortunate.

Low off VA capes but dry air is keeping the precip shield very limited.

Snow on my doorstep Wed AM.

GFS looks more like the NAM (good IMO) through 84. Less confluence to the north so a possible earlier turn.