Bubbler86

Yea, spot on. The easier way to win in my opinion. Less influence from the High/TPV and we have ourselves a Secs/Mecs Miller A. Otherwise, we need the "kicker" (AKA the N/S trough) to suck the storm back as it is going to go wide with that boundary in the Carolinas.

I feel it has been a winter where the ridges have asserted themselves more than we want...and not talking the usual SER. More from the Northwest. I also feel like there have been two camps with this system so far, a classic Miller A which is wholly dependent on where the boundary is, and Miller B or hybrid type solutions. Too far out for the Meso's to show their hand on that though but if option one we need less of a push from the high and option b needs a possible collab from the N/S.

I worry that this may be a time that these warnings actually verify. We have had a string of events where the worst winds were with little or no highlighting.

The Nam is in great position to throw decent over running snows over a good portion of PA. 540 line is in VA not the Carolinas like it is on the rgem. The back stream reasons behind this are a fascinating discuss but seems people like the snow maps and final results more. The position of the high is a big reason for difference boundary positions.

Just opened one model so far this AM and it has hardly changed from yesterday 12Z except the precip field. It is a tiny bit S/E this AM which does make a difference but with all the different reasons being thrown around for when systems are or are not amping at certain locations, the Icon is a basic Miller A which turns the corner of the boundary tracks. 12Z Yesterday 6Z Today

We need something to pull if the confluence and 540 line is going to be so far south.

Like psu posted on the ma and the 540 comment here, the boundary is farther north which will lead to a much better starting position for a coastal along with waa snows. Still not my beloved Miller a though.

540 in VA is a lot better for us than the depicts with it in the Carolinas.

On the kicker discussion, which is also raging in the ma forum, what I do not get is what people would expect to happen if it was not there? I see the kicker/ns energy as the very thing that could capture this low (whether one believes if is forming on the wrong boundary or not.). I think the Gfs depiction seems quite clear in that it is forming energy on the boundary which is so very far south next week due to the advancing tpv. Without that NS wave I feel like whatever forms would be a fast moving wave that has little in the way of northward adjustment. This is for open convo, I could be totally wrong, but I have never heard the word kicker in these forums more than the last 24 hours. It seems to be a panacea to try and explain away bad model runs.

Both of them.

Back then we did not have "constant rumors" of the great pattern since our childhood. Sometimes the Interwebs take away some of the enjoyment. Growing up a 2-4" snow used to be fun and an event, now it is often a "what if'.

Thanks!

I personally agree with this assertion in why the GFS should have shown more precip back over and into the 500 low. And his other points are valid but that is not what the GFS did so there has to be a reason the shuttered the entire southern complex well into the ocean. I fear it was the influence from a stronger higher to the NW combined with a lagging NS.

The winds are going to blow in some good model runs.

When the TPV/High decides to allow it.

Is that the same Nike Nico Harrison used to work for? I think Pelinka might have said that same phrase to Nico.

I meant for "others". Looking for advice! LOL. The Icon does not even break me out of the 40's while some other progs are 60's.

More importantly, shorts tomorrow?

I am just hoping for some combination of that high to be more like the UK or Icon (UK weaker/Icon displaced west) to allow that area of energy to the south (generous calling it a low at that point, it is in the 1010's) to feel the NS wave coming before it is so far off the coast. If the 540 line is down into SC and the NS wave is lagging, she is going get out into the ocean.

Nothing like needing a quick phase with a low 200 miles off GA to inspire confidence! LOL. Bring back the 12Z UK!

(Just my opinion) This is the point the NS trough/wave starts to affect the storm and that is really late for a massive, east coast snow storm. Note that it is a dual barrel low at this point with one area off the VA Capes and one area off GA. On the next frame the lowest area of pressure switches to the north side in response to the NS. The low does bomb out as it phases over the Flemish Cap area.

I personally do not think the NS energy has any doing in pushing that storm over Florida. If anything it is acting to pull the storm back as without it, the low exits Florida and goes east much more quickly. I saw another post in the MA thread which is spot on in my opinion, the thermal boundary which we will call the end of the High pressures influence is what is taking that low off the coast in Florida or GA. I personally think we need the HP and respective influence to back off some as to the break down of the Gfs. I still contend that played out exactly the GFS did, we see heavy snow when the low is off the Va Capes...because that very weak NS energy is there to convey it.

I actually think the it is the high coming from the N Central states causing the issue.