Bubbler86

Acc lite

Here is the Euro from 3 days ago

That might be a better question for one of the guys who record events better than I do.

As long as it transfers :-). Icon turns us into slop.

Yep, it is all about the transfer IMO. I mean it is an M/D runner. If it never transfers I turn into rain here. The models have been so consistent on a transfer....now a little bit of doubt.

Well to clarify, when you say cold suppressing.... it is other features on the map actually. I am not sure anyone here or in any thread fully understands it but in the case the low (bowling ball) coming from the west is in bullying its way to relevance longer which in turn brings more of a SE flow and moisture tap into much more of PA instead of it giving up to the coastal earlier. It is still being blocked from cutting to our west but something changed to allow it to go quite a bit further East than progged just 24-48 hours ago. Some models like the UK foretold of this possibility. I did not believe it and it still may be folly but cannot ignore it at this point.

We were very close to a phase there...vort in the upper midwest has a kicker quality to it.

That pesky H is getting in the way of a monster

The GFS and Icon both hold onto the primary longer IMO. If that happens then we are all in the game for 6-12 with JB Lollipops. Not that it is a given yet but the longer transfer delays, the more lift we bring into our hood. If this is not a real Miller B then it is going to wallop us based on these runs. I keep forgetting these Kuch maps include any snow tomorrow per the GFS. King Icon leading the way?

Not sure what the PBP in the MA is seeing but the GFS made a substantial move North with the fgen snows. Coastal influence into Tue. Sort of backs the Icons move but not quite as drastic.

18Z GFS a bit souther with the feature for tomorrow...where a front of an actual forming vort.

Not sure why it is attacking the pseudo 50/50 low like that. That low has not changed position much from the last few runs and the kicker to its west is even farther away than some runs where the Icon forced this south of us. So no phasing IMO. Warm air from the SE is punching in much more easily and moisture is spreading much farther north. I mix on the Icon.

Icon with a MIC drop. Attacks the block Marysville Webcam watching the Icon (He is ringing a bell you dirty bastards)

Heavy snow through the SW 1/3 of PA at 84 on the Icon. 2MB lower and still a bit north from 12Z. Yikes, at 90 Mix line is coming into PA. A disaster for those south of us.

Icon a smidge North at 72.

18Z 84HR Nam

It is not as obvious on the latest run but on the 6Z run it looks like it was closing off as if it was trying to take over from the coastal! LOL. It actually drops to 1006 in a later panel...VERY weak.

Maybe but the 500H map seems to indicate almsot a pass of something. Maybe it does that with an inverted as well?

The HRRR is really liking a baby version of RI as the energy gets closer to the coast.

Nada on HRRR

Right now I am going with 1-3" on non road surfaces over here. More likely 1 than 3.

One not so great for snow pack thing I see on the Euro is the coming "artic blast" keeps getting minimized. It is still seasonably cold and BN much of the time but several days above freezing the week after any snow we get Monday. Temps moderate after the 9th.

From what point/model run? re: if he said that for the 6Z Icon then it did on the 12Z, etc.