Bubbler86

I feel funny going in that sheetz. Almost like all the locals are planning on how to make me disappear.

The do have sheetz which is also an informal town hall.

High bust potential on that. They cannot go down much.

In all seriousness, several people have told me that the black ice is bad over here tonight. A lot of melted snow and temp down to 24.

I would not do that to you man. LOL

A random web shot from a user in Hazelton waiting to see if the 18Z EC can back the GFS

I was just letting you know that the 'snow showers' was an AI or automated thing and the NWS blokes were not on the same page. Zone forecasts are not something to back all your chips with!

18Z UK looks similar to 12Z through the 66 hours the 18Z runs.

I already sent him that but guess it did not convince.

Still snowing in DelMarVa. Convoluted Miller B situation where transfer happens with dry slot then CCB from coastal for Southers PA and MA.

GFS is going to hold in some sense. Williamsport Atomix will like. MA will not.

We are between 1/4 and 1/2" here now and a temp of 28.

Icon and @Ruin if the Icon has a dry bias, I was not aware of it but that does not mean it is not so.

Icon is a tad faster and a tad south. Much less precip than the Nam.

It was a significant move northward as to the precip shield. The 12Z nam was much less north of the T-Pike. 1-3" now up to ABE and still snowing.

I will be stressed checking my phone all weekend as I will not be home much. Hopefully someone picks up the PBP. If you @paweather, let it play out :-). The best PBP's have no opinion in them, just facts or what the poster thinks is fact.

This is a borderline namming for the jackpot areas. Anyones guess right now IMO.

Nam with a slight wagons North as to the snow map itself. I believe I saw dual LP's in there for a bit as the lowest area of pressure was jumping around. Actually expanded big snows south as well since the slp(s) did go slightly south of 12Z.

Still some snow to go SE PA and LSV and MA.

Coastal takes over as primary at 78. Moderate CCB like presentation through much of PA.

SLP a bit south as the snow continues. EDIT-It is a dual area of LP, tricked me. Still hammer time at 72. Better goods just south of the M/D.

Much of LSV Hammer time at 66.

Heavy Snow overspreading the southern half of PA at 63 on the Nam.

At hour 45 18z Nam is slightly deeper and in an almost identical position as 12z.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... In the extended, all attention remains on model details associated with storms system tracking towards the mid Atlantic coast Sunday night and Monday. Model consensus showed a slight northward jog in QPF/snowfall overnight, only to return farther south with a flatter wave solution with 12z runs this (Fri) morning. Negative NAO/Positive PNA pattern means we`ll have to keep watching closely for the evolution, although upstream blocking high is absent which should act to favor the flatter wave and southern solution, keeping heaviest snowfall along and south of the Mason Dixon line. Still, this track will bring plowable snowfall to at least the southern third to maybe half of central PA beginning late Sunday night and continuing Monday, with many more details still yet to be determined heading into the weekend. Very preliminary ballpark ideas are that a coating to 2" could be in play across the central mountains, with 3-5 inches or more possible along the southern tier. In snowier solutions that only comprise 25% of members, the wave packet is more amplified allowing moisture to advect farther northward and jet forcing to be stronger. This could force the heaviest snow axis to land within our CWA, but again a flatter wave solution is favored at this time due to aforementioned factors. PoPs remain high and all snow Sunday night into early Monday, with snow likely winding down through the latter half of Monday. The storm is not fully within the 72-hour range of deterministic QPF and snow forecasts.