Bubbler86

997 cedes way to 996 off Va Capes at hour 43.

The dry slot is killer just south and west of PA.

Friendly reminder, those maps are not radar and do not show the dryslot

998 Sitting just south of PA. Dual banded more consolidated into one. Getting ready to transfer.

Lanco over 4" already at hour 37.

It is a beatdown for much of PA.

2 lows

Something to be said for the continued look of a dual banded structure on the Northers. Not one isolated spot of LP vs. a broad area of multiple vorts. The "L" keeps bouncing on the Pivotal panels.

i think it is worse all together. Makes winter less desirable.

Most important long range HRRR run in years upcoming! Haha.

OMG

Herpy Derpes disagrees.

Beaver Stadium Press Box is gone.

1-3

WGAL had 6-9" here and 3-6" for all counties in the WSW.

I am feeling like a bump up is needed for southern PA counties east of the Alleghenies . 3-6 or 4-8.

That is similar to what would happen if a SLP goes through N VA and there is little to no minoring out of the shield. But that was more to point out that there is a preponderance of models with more that 4" above the M/D line. Not a forecast.

Get down with a groovy rap

Check out your favorite model site and you can 'RAP' up some concerns maybe?

It could be so much more though with that track. I love the 6-10" hammer (some silly person on MA just said no models have 4" above the m/d) but perplexed a bit why it is not.

It is quite the perplexing thing. The track is beautiful, really no transfer until it does not matter anymore, but the forcing minors out and the dry slot is huge. Blizz will approve of the gfs though.

Rgem more souther after the Icon bump up. Still no where near an agreement.

18z icon a little more amped and more coastal influence. Still minors out mid event due to transfer.

As long as some aspects of its predict are realistic we can allow it to weigh into thinking IMO. I was initially gung ho in thinking either 1) This system is minoring out due to a jump 2) Or sans a jump, it being pushed well south and the jackpot zone being closer to central VA. But, there have been so many runs of different numerical suites that show it attacking north that I do not think the Norther solutions can be ignored yet. I still hold 2-4 or 3-6 souther counties and lesser above Harrisburg but could change. As posted above, just 48 hours ago the Euro had me getting 8-12".

Edit-Fixed to Kuch