I do not believe this is a 100% bowling ball vs. a transfer at some point with limited coastal/500 add on. So Philly....lets say a lot less than the HRRR and Nam show. LOL. 3-5" for Marysville proper. For once you are fighting against the DP.
This link, when filled in with date, type of date and time period, will show you the exact models used for that output.
https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard
A double barrel low, which has been represented on both the Nam and HRRR, is more likely to resist being pushed SE prior to transfer IMO. It is a larger area of "force" per se instead of a singular and centralized area.