Going to chip in here and say your post is spot on. I do not see the off runs but the change in the Euro from yesterday's 12Z and 0Z run, to today's 12Z run is crazy. And its not just ground truth snow, its everything including the 500mb maps, spacing and a MUCH slower evolution. The SLP was 100-200 miles off the SE coast at 18Z Sunday, on the Euro 24 hours ago, now it is on the GA/AL line. So one more drastic push west ala the Gem is certainly not a stretch. Just a slight change in the trough.